External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AIA reported decent 1Q25 growth with VONB up by 13% YoY (CER) on top of a high prior-year base (1Q24: +31%), driven by both margin expansion (+3pct) and ANP increase (+7%).</li><li>VONB margin jumped to 57.5%, a quarter high since FY22, thanks to progressive shift in product mix to participating-type long-term savings offset by the change of economic assumptions by end-FY24.</li><li>The rise of new business CSM (+16%) outgrew VONB for the first time (+13%), boding well for a profitable stock of future earnings to propel for Group OPAT growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AIA reported decent 1Q25 growth with VONB up by 13% YoY (CER) on top of a high prior-year base (1Q24: +31%), driven by both margin expansion (+3pct) and ANP increase (+7%).VONB margin jumped to 57.5%, a quarter high since FY22, thanks to progressive shift in product mix to participating-type long-term savings offset by the change of economic assumptions by end-FY24.The rise of new business CSM (+16%) outgrew VONB for the first time (+13%), boding well for a profitable stock of future earnings to propel for Group OPAT growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AIA Group Ltd. (1299 HK) - Decent VONB Growth Across Ex-China Markets

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Ownership levels in AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) have started to reverse from the highs. </li>
<li>SK Hynix, Meituan and Mediatek Inc all make recent gains in fund ownership, while HDFC Bank and AIA Group see closures.</li>
<li>UBS in AIA Group and TT International in HDFC Bank lead the fund-level closures.</li>
</ul>


Ownership levels in AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) and HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) have started to reverse from the highs. 
SK Hynix, Meituan and Mediatek Inc all make recent gains in fund ownership, while HDFC Bank and AIA Group see closures.
UBS in AIA Group and TT International in HDFC Bank lead the fund-level closures.


AIA Group & HDFC Bank: Big Hitters Lose Momentum

<ul><li>AIA reported solid VONB growth at 18% YoY (CER, or 17% AER) to US$4.71bn in FY24, slightly lower than our estimate of 20% (CER)/18% (AER) YoY (link).</li><li>VONB margin was 54.5% (ANP basis), +1.9pct YoY, vs. our forecast at 54.7%.</li><li>Group OPAT grew 7% YoY (CER) to US$6.6bn, bolstered by 2H OPAT +9.5% YoY (vs. 1H24: +3.5%).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AIA reported solid VONB growth at 18% YoY (CER, or 17% AER) to US$4.71bn in FY24, slightly lower than our estimate of 20% (CER)/18% (AER) YoY (link).VONB margin was 54.5% (ANP basis), +1.9pct YoY, vs. our forecast at 54.7%.Group OPAT grew 7% YoY (CER) to US$6.6bn, bolstered by 2H OPAT +9.5% YoY (vs. 1H24: +3.5%).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AIA Group Ltd. (1299 HK) - Robust VONB Growth In-Line

<ul><li>AIA’s share price underperformed the market and CN insurers despite resilient VNB growth and a solid financial position underpinning attractive shareholder returns.</li><li>The stock price fell 17.3% in FY24, lagging behind key benchmarks as HSI (+18%), CSI 300 (+15%) and FTSE APAC ex-Japan (+7%) (Fig.1).</li><li>We attribute the market’s under-appreciation of this regional top-player to 1) sustainable VNB growth in long run, and 2) whether such VNB momentum across segments could translate into a resilient uptrend in earnings, cash and shareholder return, incl. both dividends and buybacks. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AIA’s share price underperformed the market and CN insurers despite resilient VNB growth and a solid financial position underpinning attractive shareholder returns.The stock price fell 17.3% in FY24, lagging behind key benchmarks as HSI (+18%), CSI 300 (+15%) and FTSE APAC ex-Japan (+7%) (Fig.1).We attribute the market’s under-appreciation of this regional top-player to 1) sustainable VNB growth in long run, and 2) whether such VNB momentum across segments could translate into a resilient uptrend in earnings, cash and shareholder return, incl. both dividends and buybacks. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AIA Group Ltd. (1299 HK) - FY24 Preview: OPAT Back to Growth Trajectory

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Asian buybacks, dominated by HK, China and Korea, are skyrocketing.  In H125, buybacks more than doubled from their full year 2024 levels in HK/China and increased 40% in Korea. </li>
<li>We screen companies repurchasing consistently, with total buyback of minimum $1bn and buyback over 2024-25 of at least 2% of present market cap, yielding companies in HK(11), Korea(6), Philippines(2), Singapore(1).</li>
<li>Top five repurchasers are Alibaba, Tencent, China Communication Construction, AIA, Netease. These, barring the third, are up more than 20% this year. Share price support from buybacks do seem solid.</li>
</ul>


Asian buybacks, dominated by HK, China and Korea, are skyrocketing.  In H125, buybacks more than doubled from their full year 2024 levels in HK/China and increased 40% in Korea. 
We screen companies repurchasing consistently, with total buyback of minimum $1bn and buyback over 2024-25 of at least 2% of present market cap, yielding companies in HK(11), Korea(6), Philippines(2), Singapore(1).
Top five repurchasers are Alibaba, Tencent, China Communication Construction, AIA, Netease. These, barring the third, are up more than 20% this year. Share price support from buybacks do seem solid.


Asian Buybacks Accelerating; Consistent Share Repurchasers Offer Safety

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)