Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese regional banks sit at the crossroads of many macro variables driving the Japanese stock market</li>
<li>Rate normalisation, rising loan growth and profitability and government/activist led consolidation</li>
<li>We introduce a basket of stocks to benefit from these converging trends</li>
</ul>


Japanese regional banks sit at the crossroads of many macro variables driving the Japanese stock market
Rate normalisation, rising loan growth and profitability and government/activist led consolidation
We introduce a basket of stocks to benefit from these converging trends


Japan Regional Banks - An Uncrowded Rate Trade with a Consolidation Option

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Regional bank consolidation is on the menu in Japan. Expect more of it.</li>
<li>Intra-Prefecture is the obvious case. In rural prefectures, JA and the Post Bank are credible deposit-taker competition. SME lending is less obvious, though cross-border (neighbouring prefecture) combinations could arise.</li>
<li>A new transaction suggests another combination is on its way. I'd buy.</li>
</ul>


Regional bank consolidation is on the menu in Japan. Expect more of it.
Intra-Prefecture is the obvious case. In rural prefectures, JA and the Post Bank are credible deposit-taker competition. SME lending is less obvious, though cross-border (neighbouring prefecture) combinations could arise.
A new transaction suggests another combination is on its way. I'd buy.


[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we survey the consumer staples sector at historic positioning lows, follow the rotation into (Asian) financials, and assess the sometimes mixed track record of spin-offs. </li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we survey the consumer staples sector at historic positioning lows, follow the rotation into (Asian) financials, and assess the sometimes mixed track record of spin-offs. 
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Few Want Consumer Staples, Many Want Financials, & Spin-Off Lessons

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We focus on key factors for these small cap banks such as equity shareholdings relative to market value, gearing to higher interest rates, and their exposure to bond holdings</li>
<li>We recommend buy ratings on Hyakugo and Awa two of the top three banks in our proprietary scorecard, primarily for their high level of equity shareholdings relative to market capitalization</li>
<li>Hyakugo is highly geared to higher rates and has low unrealized losses on bond positions, with Awa topping equity holdings to market value; Juroku, Aichi and Shiga are on watch</li>
</ul>


We focus on key factors for these small cap banks such as equity shareholdings relative to market value, gearing to higher interest rates, and their exposure to bond holdings
We recommend buy ratings on Hyakugo and Awa two of the top three banks in our proprietary scorecard, primarily for their high level of equity shareholdings relative to market capitalization
Hyakugo is highly geared to higher rates and has low unrealized losses on bond positions, with Awa topping equity holdings to market value; Juroku, Aichi and Shiga are on watch


Japanese Small Cap Banks – Hyakugo Bank (TSE:8368) And Awa Bank (TSE:8388) Stand Out

<ul>
<li>Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.</li>
<li>This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.</li>
<li>I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. </li>
</ul>


Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.
I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. 


Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

Japan

Aichi Financial Group, Inc. provides banking services. The Company offers trust banking and banking services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, securities investments, and pension services. Aichi Financial Group also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, and factoring services.

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Aichi Financial Group (7389 JP)

Japan Regional Banks - An Uncrowded Rate Trade with a Consolidation Option

One of our basket members Aichi Financial 7389.T suspended mid trading up 4% due to the following headline: May 13 (Reuters) - Aichi Financial...

Rikki Malik

[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

Japan regional bank consolidation will continue. We may have a new candidate. I'd be long the small target in this case, assuming that value will out.

Travis Lundy

Curator's Cut: Few Want Consumer Staples, Many Want Financials, & Spin-Off Lessons

In this Curator's Cut, we examine poor positioning in Consumer Staples, the (continued) rotation into (Asian) Financials and mixed views on spin...

Pranav Rao

Japanese Small Cap Banks – Hyakugo Bank (TSE:8368) And Awa Bank (TSE:8388) Stand Out

Small cap banks Hyakugo and Awa rated buys due to high equity shareholdings and gearing to higher rates, amongst other metrics; Juroku, Aichi, and...

Victor Galliano

Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

Earnings releases in tech will start to pick up the next few days, and while the market is open on the 29th then also on the 1st and 2nd, the 5-day...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Regional Banks - An Uncrowded Rate Trade with a Consolidation Option

One of our basket members Aichi Financial 7389.T suspended mid trading up 4% due to the following headline: May 13 (Reuters) - Aichi Financial...

Rikki Malik

[Japan M&A] Regional Bank Consolidation Efforts May Pick Up

Japan regional bank consolidation will continue. We may have a new candidate. I'd be long the small target in this case, assuming that value will out.

Travis Lundy

Curator's Cut: Few Want Consumer Staples, Many Want Financials, & Spin-Off Lessons

In this Curator's Cut, we examine poor positioning in Consumer Staples, the (continued) rotation into (Asian) Financials and mixed views on spin...

Pranav Rao

Japanese Small Cap Banks – Hyakugo Bank (TSE:8368) And Awa Bank (TSE:8388) Stand Out

​Small cap banks Hyakugo and Awa rated buys due to high equity shareholdings and gearing to higher rates, amongst other metrics; Juroku, Aichi, and...

Victor Galliano

Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

Earnings releases in tech will start to pick up the next few days, and while the market is open on the 29th then also on the 1st and 2nd, the 5-day...

Travis Lundy

Small cap banks Hyakugo and Awa rated buys due to high equity shareholdings and gearing to higher rates, amongst other metrics; Juroku, Aichi, and...