Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange -Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.</li>
<li>Overall, net outflow over the past week was ~US$1.28bn, split between Shanghai (-US$0.85bn) and Shenzhen (-US$0.43bn)</li>
<li>The largest inflows were into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aier-eye-hospital-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1103:1" rel="noopener">Aier Eye Hospital (300015 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-mindray-bio-medic-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28017:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Mindray  (300760 CH)</a>. The largest outflows were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:714:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank (600036 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sungrow-power-supply-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4255:1" rel="noopener">Sungrow Power (300274 CH)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange -Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
Overall, net outflow over the past week was ~US$1.28bn, split between Shanghai (-US$0.85bn) and Shenzhen (-US$0.43bn)
The largest inflows were into Aier Eye Hospital (300015 CH) and Shenzhen Mindray  (300760 CH). The largest outflows were in China Merchants Bank (600036 CH) and Sungrow Power (300274 CH).


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 July 2022)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gaush-meditech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35250:1" rel="noopener">Gaush Meditech (GMT HK)</a> is a leading total solution provider of ophthalmic medical devices industry.</li>
<li>The irreplaceability of Gaush in the whole industrial chain is actually not high based on its current business model.The proprietary product business may also need to face different policy risks.</li>
<li>Together with other uncertainties such as increasing market competition and medical reform policy in China, we are conservative about Gaush’s outlook at the current stage.  </li>
</ul>



Gaush Meditech (GMT HK) is a leading total solution provider of ophthalmic medical devices industry.
The irreplaceability of Gaush in the whole industrial chain is actually not high based on its current business model.The proprietary product business may also need to face different policy risks.
Together with other uncertainties such as increasing market competition and medical reform policy in China, we are conservative about Gaush’s outlook at the current stage.  


Pre-IPO Gaush Meditech - The "Middlemen" Have Many Challenges

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.</li>
<li>Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.</li>
<li>Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.
Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.
Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).


Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Aier Eye Hospital Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aier's private placement was approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, but we don’t think it signals a complete policy shift that private medical institutions are welcomed by capital markets.</li>
<li>The high goodwill impairment risk and medical disputes are great concerns. However, if Aier changes its development mode, its performance growth would probably slow down or becomes uncertain.</li>
<li>Aier’s Q2 performance could be affected by pandemic/lockdown. Even after continuous corrections, Aier is still overvalued based on current valuation, which has not priced in all the concerns and risks.</li>
</ul>


Aier's private placement was approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, but we don’t think it signals a complete policy shift that private medical institutions are welcomed by capital markets.
The high goodwill impairment risk and medical disputes are great concerns. However, if Aier changes its development mode, its performance growth would probably slow down or becomes uncertain.
Aier’s Q2 performance could be affected by pandemic/lockdown. Even after continuous corrections, Aier is still overvalued based on current valuation, which has not priced in all the concerns and risks.


Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015.CH) 2021/2022Q1 Results - Overvaluation and a Risky Outlook

Hygeia Healthcare Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Driven by the development mode of "organic growth + strategic acquisitions + cooperation with hospital partners", <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hygeia-healthcare-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28875:1" rel="noopener">Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK)</a> could rapidly expand nationwide, with solid business logic. </li>
<li>Hygeia's delicacy management and the strength in operation help the Company to break the limits of the expansion of private hospitals, helping shorten the time it takes to break even.</li>
<li>However, the high uncertainties on policy and State’s attitude towards private hospitals cast shadow on Hygeia's long-term prospects, but investors could still trade this stock in short term.</li>
</ul>


Driven by the development mode of "organic growth + strategic acquisitions + cooperation with hospital partners", Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078 HK) could rapidly expand nationwide, with solid business logic. 
Hygeia's delicacy management and the strength in operation help the Company to break the limits of the expansion of private hospitals, helping shorten the time it takes to break even.
However, the high uncertainties on policy and State’s attitude towards private hospitals cast shadow on Hygeia's long-term prospects, but investors could still trade this stock in short term.


Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) 2021 Results - Solid Business Logic Comes with Policy Risk

China

Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd provides ophthalmological services.  The Company's services include ophthalmological diagnosis and treatments.

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Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH)

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