Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Cloudbreak Pharma / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Cloudbreak re-filed for a Hong Kong listing in December 2024 to raise at least USD 100 million.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at updates to its product lines. The progress of core products is on track while there are significant delays observed for other products.</li>
<li>We have a negative readthrough from the leading competitor of its core product.</li>
</ul>


Cloudbreak re-filed for a Hong Kong listing in December 2024 to raise at least USD 100 million.
In this note, we look at updates to its product lines. The progress of core products is on track while there are significant delays observed for other products.
We have a negative readthrough from the leading competitor of its core product.


Cloudbreak 拨康视云 IPO: Negative Readthrough from Underperforming Market Leader

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Fosun Pharma is just “a platform” and its performance mainly relies on the contributions of subsidiaries. However, such investment-driven business model has led to the current performance difficulties.</li>
<li>Although the motivation/underlying logic for Fosun Pharma to privatize Henlius are solid, we don’t know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun's system.</li>
<li>If, for example, Fosun Pharma finds more important acquisitions/capital expenditures, the priority of Henlius’ privatization could fall. So, we think if it takes too long, there may be more uncertainties.</li>
</ul>


Fosun Pharma is just “a platform” and its performance mainly relies on the contributions of subsidiaries. However, such investment-driven business model has led to the current performance difficulties.
Although the motivation/underlying logic for Fosun Pharma to privatize Henlius are solid, we don’t know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun's system.
If, for example, Fosun Pharma finds more important acquisitions/capital expenditures, the priority of Henlius’ privatization could fall. So, we think if it takes too long, there may be more uncertainties.


Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China healthcare can be mainly divided into the following segments: pharmaceuticals, medical devices, medical services, To B Supply Chain. Investment logic and business characteristics in these fields are completely different.</li>
<li>“High standardization+low dependence on doctors” help pharmaceuticals gain a more favorable commercial value than medical devices in distribution process. Profit margin/cross-regional expansion capability of medical services have always been questioned.</li>
<li>The business characteristics of “To B supply chain” indicate strong cyclical characteristics due to supply rigidity and demand fluctuations, which are easily affected by changes in demand trends.</li>
</ul>


China healthcare can be mainly divided into the following segments: pharmaceuticals, medical devices, medical services, To B Supply Chain. Investment logic and business characteristics in these fields are completely different.
“High standardization+low dependence on doctors” help pharmaceuticals gain a more favorable commercial value than medical devices in distribution process. Profit margin/cross-regional expansion capability of medical services have always been questioned.
The business characteristics of “To B supply chain” indicate strong cyclical characteristics due to supply rigidity and demand fluctuations, which are easily affected by changes in demand trends.


The “Game Rule” of China Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Vs Medical Devices Vs Medical Services

Distinct Healthcare Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Due to industry characteristics, it would be difficult for Distinct Healthcare to scale up. The Company is more of “a supplementary role” in the entire medical service system in China.</li>
<li>Profit margin is not satisfactory and cost side is also difficult to reduce. Even if Distinct Healthcare successfully turns losses into profits, it’s hard to generate good returns for investors.</li>
<li>Post-Money valuation was US$510 million after Series E financing. For a company that would encounter bottlenecks in both revenue and profit growth, it would be difficult to achieve high valuation.</li>
</ul>


Due to industry characteristics, it would be difficult for Distinct Healthcare to scale up. The Company is more of “a supplementary role” in the entire medical service system in China.
Profit margin is not satisfactory and cost side is also difficult to reduce. Even if Distinct Healthcare successfully turns losses into profits, it’s hard to generate good returns for investors.
Post-Money valuation was US$510 million after Series E financing. For a company that would encounter bottlenecks in both revenue and profit growth, it would be difficult to achieve high valuation.


Pre-IPO Distinct Healthcare Holdings-  Hard to Deliver the Expected Returns Due to Growth Bottleneck

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs' next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.</li>
<li>Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.</li>
<li>Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don't think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.</li>
</ul>


For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs' next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.
Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.
Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don't think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.


China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

China

Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd provides ophthalmological services.  The Company's services include ophthalmological diagnosis and treatments.

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Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH)

Cloudbreak 拨康视云 IPO: Negative Readthrough from Underperforming Market Leader

Cloudbreak re-files for Hong Kong listing to raise $100M, core product progress on track but delays in other products, negative readthrough from...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The “Game Rule” of China Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Vs Medical Devices Vs Medical Services

China healthcare has distinct segments with different investment logic/characteristics.The pecking order is drugs>medical device>medical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Distinct Healthcare Holdings- Hard to Deliver the Expected Returns Due to Growth Bottleneck

Distinct Healthcare faces challenges in scaling up due to industry characteristics and may not generate good returns for investors despite turning...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cloudbreak 拨康视云 IPO: Negative Readthrough from Underperforming Market Leader

​Cloudbreak re-files for Hong Kong listing to raise $100M, core product progress on track but delays in other products, negative readthrough from...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196.HK) - Performance Pain Points and Henlius’ Privatization Outlook

​Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The “Game Rule” of China Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Vs Medical Devices Vs Medical Services

​China healthcare has distinct segments with different investment logic/characteristics.The pecking order is drugs>medical device>medical...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Distinct Healthcare Holdings- Hard to Deliver the Expected Returns Due to Growth Bottleneck

​Distinct Healthcare faces challenges in scaling up due to industry characteristics and may not generate good returns for investors despite turning...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

​Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Cloudbreak re-files for Hong Kong listing to raise $100M, core product progress on track but delays in other products, negative readthrough from...

Fosun Pharma's investment-driven business model relies heavily on subsidiaries.Privatization of Henlius may face uncertainties if not prioritized...

China healthcare has distinct segments with different investment logic/characteristics.The pecking order is drugs>medical device>medical...

Distinct Healthcare faces challenges in scaling up due to industry characteristics and may not generate good returns for investors despite turning...

Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...