Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Airline operating data show a softening of travel demand growth in April (after a strong March)</li>
<li>Although outbound load factors remain high, airlines may struggle to recoup fuel costs</li>
<li>Possibly due to price issue, domestic activity during May Day holiday period also weak</li>
</ul>


Airline operating data show a softening of travel demand growth in April (after a strong March)
Although outbound load factors remain high, airlines may struggle to recoup fuel costs
Possibly due to price issue, domestic activity during May Day holiday period also weak


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | After Strong March, Data Shows Softer Air Travel Demand in April

<ul>
<li>After a sluggish start to 2026, March domestic and outbound air travel demand surged</li>
<li>Airline data shows March outbound and domestic traffic up 18% and 11% respectively</li>
<li>Record high outbound load factor could help Chinese airlines pass on fuel cost increases</li>
</ul>


After a sluggish start to 2026, March domestic and outbound air travel demand surged
Airline data shows March outbound and domestic traffic up 18% and 11% respectively
Record high outbound load factor could help Chinese airlines pass on fuel cost increases


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March Demand Growth Improved | High Outbound Load Factor +ive

<ul>
<li>On a combined basis, air travel demand in January-February 2026 was up modestly Y/Y</li>
<li>Chinese carriers face sharply higher international jet fuel prices, up 60%+ vs February</li>
<li>Planned fuel surcharges planned for April could hit consumer demand for air travel</li>
</ul>


On a combined basis, air travel demand in January-February 2026 was up modestly Y/Y
Chinese carriers face sharply higher international jet fuel prices, up 60%+ vs February
Planned fuel surcharges planned for April could hit consumer demand for air travel


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January-February Growth Softer | Fuel Surcharges Could Hit Demand

<ul>
<li>Slower pace of January activity growth explained by timing of long LNY holidays in 2025/26 </li>
<li>Initial numbers from LNY holiday period show more trips,  but tight purse-strings</li>
<li>Airlines appear to be managing well; a clearer picture of consumer will emerge soon</li>
</ul>


Slower pace of January activity growth explained by timing of long LNY holidays in 2025/26 
Initial numbers from LNY holiday period show more trips,  but tight purse-strings
Airlines appear to be managing well; a clearer picture of consumer will emerge soon


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January Impacted by LNY Timing | Initial LNY 2026 Numbers So-So

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Various statistics suggested that China's tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.</li>
<li>While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.</li>
<li>We like OTAs including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> stays as the top pick.</li>
</ul>


Various statistics suggested that China's tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.
While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.
We like OTAs including Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) stays as the top pick.


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

China

Air China is the flag carrier airline of the People's Republic of China, primarily providing air passenger and air cargo services, including both domestic and international flights. The company also offers a range of airline-related services such as aircraft engineering and airport ground handling. It was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Beijing, People's Republic of China.

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Air China (753 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | After Strong March, Data Shows Softer Air Travel Demand in April

Chinese air travel data from April show a sudden slowing of demand, probably related to recent increases in airfares and surcharges. We expect to...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March Demand Growth Improved | High Outbound Load Factor +ive

March outbound and domestic air passenger counts surged, up 18% and 11% Y/Y, respectively. High passenger load factors should help carriers pass on...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January-February Growth Softer | Fuel Surcharges Could Hit Demand

On a combined basis, January-February Chinese air travel rose modestly compare to 2025. If carriers follow through with planned fuel surcharges,...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January Impacted by LNY Timing | Initial LNY 2026 Numbers So-So

January's Chinese tourism activity data were hurt by the timing of the LNY holiday. We have initial holiday numbers, but we'll get a better sense...

Tracking Traffic

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | After Strong March, Data Shows Softer Air Travel Demand in April

Chinese air travel data from April show a sudden slowing of demand, probably related to recent increases in airfares and surcharges. We expect to...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March Demand Growth Improved | High Outbound Load Factor +ive

March outbound and domestic air passenger counts surged, up 18% and 11% Y/Y, respectively. High passenger load factors should help carriers pass on...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January-February Growth Softer | Fuel Surcharges Could Hit Demand

On a combined basis, January-February Chinese air travel rose modestly compare to 2025. If carriers follow through with planned fuel surcharges,...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January Impacted by LNY Timing | Initial LNY 2026 Numbers So-So

January's Chinese tourism activity data were hurt by the timing of the LNY holiday. We have initial holiday numbers, but we'll get a better sense...

Tracking Traffic

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

​China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...