Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>USCBP data from August shows Y/Y declines in traffic, especially at N. border</li>
<li>Overall, air travel to and from the US has held up well vs other travel modes</li>
<li>Some US regions hit harder than others; US losses could benefit Europe, others</li>
</ul>


USCBP data from August shows Y/Y declines in traffic, especially at N. border
Overall, air travel to and from the US has held up well vs other travel modes
Some US regions hit harder than others; US losses could benefit Europe, others


US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

<ul>
<li>Airline &amp; airport air cargo data shows moderating demand, Asia &gt; N America</li>
<li>No signs of supply tightness in the system; in fact, reported yields are <em>falling</em>
</li>
<li>Most indicators show that demand is mediocre, space plentiful, pricing weak</li>
</ul>


Airline &amp; airport air cargo data shows moderating demand, Asia &gt; N America
No signs of supply tightness in the system; in fact, reported yields are falling

Most indicators show that demand is mediocre, space plentiful, pricing weak


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>1H25 earnings of our coverage are generally weaker than expected, with a 5.9% growth; for 2H25, the consensus forecasts point to a further slowdown to 4%. </li>
<li>The Chinese airlines, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment (308 HK)</a> exhibit the best YoY growth in 2H25. </li>
<li>Container shipping and trade-related companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> are expected to see earnings plunge in 2H25.</li>
</ul>


1H25 earnings of our coverage are generally weaker than expected, with a 5.9% growth; for 2H25, the consensus forecasts point to a further slowdown to 4%. 
The Chinese airlines, Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK), Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK), and China Travel International Investment (308 HK) exhibit the best YoY growth in 2H25. 
Container shipping and trade-related companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK), and Orient Overseas International (316 HK) are expected to see earnings plunge in 2H25.


China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Jobs /In Depth: Coding jobs no longer sure thing for U.S.-educated Chinese</li><li>Commodity/: Hong Kong joins LME’s global delivery system with eight certified warehouses</li><li>Delivery /: Couriers hike prices in face of toxic competition crackdown</li></ul>

Jobs /In Depth: Coding jobs no longer sure thing for U.S.-educated ChineseCommodity/: Hong Kong joins LME’s global delivery system with eight certified warehousesDelivery /: Couriers hike prices in face of toxic competition crackdown

CX Daily: Coding Jobs No Longer Sure Thing for U.S.-Educated Chinese 

<ul>
<li>Year to date (July) US border crossing data paint a surprisingly mixed picture</li>
<li>Overall, total crossings at all points and by all modes are down -3.7% Y/Y</li>
<li>States facing Canada saw a -17.5% decline; air crossings into West up +3.7%</li>
</ul>


Year to date (July) US border crossing data paint a surprisingly mixed picture
Overall, total crossings at all points and by all modes are down -3.7% Y/Y
States facing Canada saw a -17.5% decline; air crossings into West up +3.7%


US Customs & Border Patrol Traveler Data Show Mixed Picture, Sharp Drop in Northern Border Crossings

China

Air China Limited provides passenger, cargo, and airline-related services in China.  The Company is primarily based in Beijing and a major hub for domestic and international air transportation.  Air China's airline-related services include aircraft maintenance, repair, overhaul service, ground services, and in-flight catering services.

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Air China Ltd (A) (601111 CH)

US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

August data from the US Customs & Border Protection agency shows a decline in US border crossings. Air crossings have held up relatively well, but...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

A look at July yields, load factors, and tonnage growth in July suggests an Asian air cargo market that has plenty of supply to meet moderating...

Tracking Traffic

China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: Coding Jobs No Longer Sure Thing for U.S.-Educated Chinese

Jobs /In Depth: Coding jobs no longer sure thing for U.S.-educated Chinese Commodity/: Hong Kong joins LME’s global delivery system with eight...

Caixin Global

US Customs & Border Patrol Traveler Data Show Mixed Picture, Sharp Drop in Northern Border Crossings

Recently released US border crossing data show a mixed bag: total crossings at the US Northern and Southern borders are down YTD, but crossings by...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Customs & Border Protection August Data | Air Crossings Stable | Europe Could Gain From US Losses

August data from the US Customs & Border Protection agency shows a decline in US border crossings. Air crossings have held up relatively well, but...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

A look at July yields, load factors, and tonnage growth in July suggests an Asian air cargo market that has plenty of supply to meet moderating...

Tracking Traffic

China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

​1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: Coding Jobs No Longer Sure Thing for U.S.-Educated Chinese

Jobs /In Depth: Coding jobs no longer sure thing for U.S.-educated Chinese Commodity/: Hong Kong joins LME’s global delivery system with eight...

Caixin Global

US Customs & Border Patrol Traveler Data Show Mixed Picture, Sharp Drop in Northern Border Crossings

Recently released US border crossing data show a mixed bag: total crossings at the US Northern and Southern borders are down YTD, but crossings by...

Tracking Traffic

1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...