Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Trip.com will finally report Q2 results after the US close on Tuesday, September 15</li>
<li>Earlier investigation, now concluded, was likely a drag on growth &amp; earnings in period</li>
<li>Management commentary could indicate pace of recovery from Trip.com's latest stumble</li>
</ul>


Trip.com will finally report Q2 results after the US close on Tuesday, September 15
Earlier investigation, now concluded, was likely a drag on growth &amp; earnings in period
Management commentary could indicate pace of recovery from Trip.com's latest stumble


Trip.com Q226 Earnings Preview | Impact of Investigation | Accommodation Segment | Q3 Guidance Key

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.</li><li>The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.</li><li>At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. </li></ul>

Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. 

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

Channel Infrastructure NZ Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Channel Infrastructure (CHI) delivered the expected positive 1H26 result at both the earnings and dividend level.</li><li>The key news of the day, however, was the announcement of another large storage contract, this time with bp.</li><li>The bp announcement plus additional upside opportunity results in strong earnings increases from FY29, a step up in the forecast dividend from FY27, and a +NZ27c increase in our target price to NZ$3.68.</li></ul>

Channel Infrastructure (CHI) delivered the expected positive 1H26 result at both the earnings and dividend level.The key news of the day, however, was the announcement of another large storage contract, this time with bp.The bp announcement plus additional upside opportunity results in strong earnings increases from FY29, a step up in the forecast dividend from FY27, and a +NZ27c increase in our target price to NZ$3.68.

Channel Infrastructure Tanks for the Contract bp—1H26 Result

<ul><li>Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.</li><li>The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.</li><li>Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. </li></ul>

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. 

<ul><li>A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.</li><li>Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.</li><li>The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. </li></ul>

A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. 

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

New Zealand

Air New Zealand Limited operates an airline business that provides international and domestic air passenger and cargo transport services throughout New Zealand and the South West Pacific. The Company also provides engineering and ground handling services.

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Air New Zealand (AIR NZ)

Trip.com Q226 Earnings Preview | Impact of Investigation | Accommodation Segment | Q3 Guidance Key

Trip.com will finally report Q2 results on Tuesday evening (US time). Expectations for Q2 are low but forward guidance could indicate how quickly...

Tracking Traffic

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.

Forsyth Barr

Channel Infrastructure Tanks for the Contract bp—1H26 Result

Channel Infrastructure (CHI) delivered the expected positive 1H26 result at both the earnings and dividend level. The key news of the day,...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - A Second Wave

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years. The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight,...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption. The latter has softened...

Forsyth Barr

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