Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We cut FY2026–28E core profit to reflect the delayed new PSC rate (now July 2026) and lower passenger assumptions, amid rising flight slot returns for the summer schedule, especially from Chinese airlines.</li><li>We downgrade to Underperform (from Neutral) as the current price implies 10% downside to our new 12M FV of Bt51.50 (earnings yield, 2.6% required return; previously Bt54.25 / 2.9%), with limited tactical upside despite a 2Y core EPS CAGR of 13%, above peers.</li><li>The new outbound international PSC rate of Bt1,120 (from Bt730) has become clearer and is expected to take effect in July 2026 (later than our previous April 2026 estimate).</li></ul>

We cut FY2026–28E core profit to reflect the delayed new PSC rate (now July 2026) and lower passenger assumptions, amid rising flight slot returns for the summer schedule, especially from Chinese airlines.We downgrade to Underperform (from Neutral) as the current price implies 10% downside to our new 12M FV of Bt51.50 (earnings yield, 2.6% required return; previously Bt54.25 / 2.9%), with limited tactical upside despite a 2Y core EPS CAGR of 13%, above peers.The new outbound international PSC rate of Bt1,120 (from Bt730) has become clearer and is expected to take effect in July 2026 (later than our previous April 2026 estimate).

Airports of Thailand Plc (AOT): PSC Clarity Emerges, Passenger Growth at Risk of Stalling

<ul><li>1QFY26 net profit was Bt4.65bn (-13% YoY, +20% QoQ), in line with our estimate.</li><li>We downgrade to Neutral (from Outperform) after a 7.5% YTD gain, implying ~5% downside to our 12M FV of Bt54.25 (required return: 2.9%).</li><li>We maintain our FY2026E core profit forecast at Bt20.4bn (+10% YoY).</li></ul>

1QFY26 net profit was Bt4.65bn (-13% YoY, +20% QoQ), in line with our estimate.We downgrade to Neutral (from Outperform) after a 7.5% YTD gain, implying ~5% downside to our 12M FV of Bt54.25 (required return: 2.9%).We maintain our FY2026E core profit forecast at Bt20.4bn (+10% YoY).

AIRPORTS OF THAILAND Plc. (AOT): Net Profit In Line; Awaiting Signing Of New PSC Rate Adjustment

<ul><li>The new Minimum Guarantee (MG) for King Power Duty Free starting in October 2025 is expected to pressure 1QFY26E core profit YoY, despite the high season.</li><li>We slightly cut the 12M FWD fair value to Bt54.25 (from Bt56.00), based on a 2.9% required return. We maintain an Outperform call, with ~6% upside and very limited tactical downside. FY2026–28E EPS CAGR is projected at 10%, in line with peers.</li><li>Our valuation indicates that a lower risk-free rate would be the main upside driver for fair value, while the delayed implementation of the new PSC could weigh on 12-month earnings growth and valuation.</li></ul>

The new Minimum Guarantee (MG) for King Power Duty Free starting in October 2025 is expected to pressure 1QFY26E core profit YoY, despite the high season.We slightly cut the 12M FWD fair value to Bt54.25 (from Bt56.00), based on a 2.9% required return. We maintain an Outperform call, with ~6% upside and very limited tactical downside. FY2026–28E EPS CAGR is projected at 10%, in line with peers.Our valuation indicates that a lower risk-free rate would be the main upside driver for fair value, while the delayed implementation of the new PSC could weigh on 12-month earnings growth and valuation.

Airports Of Thailand Plc. (AOT): 1QFY26E Profit Pressured By New MG, PSC Delay Risk

<ul><li>We view the analyst meeting on December 4, 2025 as neutral, as most updates on the KPD and PSC contract revisions were in line with our note published on the same day.</li><li>The company will collect an additional three months of bank guarantee from KPD as part of the contract amendment, and the revised contract will be applied retroactively from October 2025, which marks the start of the company’s fiscal year.</li><li>For the PSC, we now expect the earliest effective date to be mid-April 2026 (vs. early April previously).</li></ul>

We view the analyst meeting on December 4, 2025 as neutral, as most updates on the KPD and PSC contract revisions were in line with our note published on the same day.The company will collect an additional three months of bank guarantee from KPD as part of the contract amendment, and the revised contract will be applied retroactively from October 2025, which marks the start of the company’s fiscal year.For the PSC, we now expect the earliest effective date to be mid-April 2026 (vs. early April previously).

AIRPORTS OF THAILAND Plc. (AOT): Further Clarification on KPD and PSC Revenue Collection

<ul><li>We switch to Outperform and raise our FV to Bt56.00 (2.6% required return; vs Neutral/Bt40.75/2.8% previously).</li><li>The duty-free contract renegotiation with King Power (KPD) also improved.</li><li>However, we see a low chance of collecting the additional 35%, as: i) it applies only when spending per head exceeds Bt1,500 (vs Bt1,100 currently); and ii) spending per head in FY2026–27E is expected to stay flat.</li></ul>

We switch to Outperform and raise our FV to Bt56.00 (2.6% required return; vs Neutral/Bt40.75/2.8% previously).The duty-free contract renegotiation with King Power (KPD) also improved.However, we see a low chance of collecting the additional 35%, as: i) it applies only when spending per head exceeds Bt1,500 (vs Bt1,100 currently); and ii) spending per head in FY2026–27E is expected to stay flat.

AIRPORTS OF THAILAND Plc. (AOT): Earnings Upgraded On Easing KPD And PSC

Thailand

Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (AOT) operates and manages six international airports in Thailand, including Suvarnabhumi Airport and Don Mueang International Airport. The company provides aeronautical services such as landing and parking, passenger service, and aircraft service charges. It also offers non-aeronautical services, including concession revenues, office and property rentals, hotel and restaurant businesses, ground services, and security services. AOT was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)

Airports of Thailand Plc (AOT): PSC Clarity Emerges, Passenger Growth at Risk of Stalling

The new outbound international PSC rate of Bt1,120 (from Bt730) has become clearer and is expected to take effect in July 2026 (later than our...

Krungthai XSpring

AIRPORTS OF THAILAND Plc. (AOT): Net Profit In Line; Awaiting Signing Of New PSC Rate Adjustment

We downgrade to Neutral (from Outperform) after a 7.5% YTD gain, implying ~5% downside to our 12M FV of Bt54.25 (required return: 2.9%).

Krungthai XSpring

Airports Of Thailand Plc. (AOT): 1QFY26E Profit Pressured By New MG, PSC Delay Risk

The new Minimum Guarantee (MG) for King Power Duty Free starting in October 2025 is expected to pressure 1QFY26E core profit YoY, despite the high...

Krungthai XSpring

AIRPORTS OF THAILAND Plc. (AOT): Further Clarification on KPD and PSC Revenue Collection

We view the analyst meeting on December 4, 2025 as neutral, as most updates on the KPD and PSC contract revisions were in line with our note...

Krungthai XSpring

AIRPORTS OF THAILAND Plc. (AOT): Earnings Upgraded On Easing KPD And PSC

We switch to Outperform and raise our FV to Bt56.00 (2.6% required return; vs Neutral/Bt40.75/2.8% previously). The duty-free contract...

Krungthai XSpring

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