IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The first closing date of Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is 12 February. Shares continue to trade above terms.</li>
<li>Ahead of the first close, internal and external factors have continued to underscore that the offer is light.</li>
<li>There are several potential scenarios at the first close. The most likely scenario is the extension of close and additional irrevocables. The least likely scenario is successful completion.</li>
</ul>


The first closing date of Toyota Fudosan’s JPY18,800 offer for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is 12 February. Shares continue to trade above terms.
Ahead of the first close, internal and external factors have continued to underscore that the offer is light.
There are several potential scenarios at the first close. The most likely scenario is the extension of close and additional irrevocables. The least likely scenario is successful completion.


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Scenarios Ahead of the First Close

Equity Capital Markets

Shin Etsu Chemical / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.0 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a>’s shares have declined 6.3% to the undisturbed price of JPY5,476 per share (27 January).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Shin Etsu's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 4 February. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.0 billion secondary offering, Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)’s shares have declined 6.3% to the undisturbed price of JPY5,476 per share (27 January).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Shin Etsu's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 4 February. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP): The Current Playbook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>TSE-Listed companies are asked to file "Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.</li>
<li>There were case study updates published late-Dec25. Interesting, but not ground-breaking. 146 CGRs were filed in January after 475 in December 2025. It's low season til spring.</li>
<li>The ongoing Study Group to review Minority Shareholder Protection, etc has interim comments suggesting Toyota Fudosan's claim of Majority of Minority is false (of course it is, but they're nicer).</li>
</ul>


TSE-Listed companies are asked to file "Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
There were case study updates published late-Dec25. Interesting, but not ground-breaking. 146 CGRs were filed in January after 475 in December 2025. It's low season til spring.
The ongoing Study Group to review Minority Shareholder Protection, etc has interim comments suggesting Toyota Fudosan's claim of Majority of Minority is false (of course it is, but they're nicer).


[Japan CorpGov] TSE "Mgmt Conscious" Reports (Feb26) - Disappointing Case Studies, Weak Study Group

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kandenko-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3726:1" rel="noopener">Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of 22.8 million shares (26.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.8 billion (US$1.0 billion including overallotment).</li>
<li>The timing is opportunistic as the shares are up 159% in the last 12 months. Notably, the placement was announced post-close after the full-year results were <a href="https://www.kandenko.co.jp/en/docs/3Notice%20of%20Revision%20to%20Financial%20Results%20and%20Dividend%20Forecasts.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">upgraded intraday</a>.</li>
<li>The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is below average compared to recent large placements. A ToSTNeT-3 repurchase (up to JPY30 billion) will partly mitigate the impact.</li>
</ul>



Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP) has announced a secondary offering of 22.8 million shares (26.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.8 billion (US$1.0 billion including overallotment).
The timing is opportunistic as the shares are up 159% in the last 12 months. Notably, the placement was announced post-close after the full-year results were upgraded intraday.
The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is below average compared to recent large placements. A ToSTNeT-3 repurchase (up to JPY30 billion) will partly mitigate the impact.


Kandenko (1942 JP): A US$1.0 Billion Secondary Offering

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> (AM) is looking to raise approximately US$510m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>’s (KE) stock.</li>
<li>KE had seen three selldown earlier, two from KKR and one from AM, with mixed results.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Applied Materials (AMAT US) (AM) is looking to raise approximately US$510m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 5% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)’s (KE) stock.
KE had seen three selldown earlier, two from KKR and one from AM, with mixed results.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Aequitas: Kokusai Electric Placement - Last Deal Did Ok, but the Stock Has Done Very Well Since

Japan

Aisin Corporation manufactures and distributes motor vehicle parts. The Company produces drive train, transmissions, clutches, disc brakes, anti-skid brake system, suspensions, oil pumps, power windows, power door locks, and more. Aisin operates sales and production subsidiaries worldwide.

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Aisin (7259 JP)

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Scenarios Ahead of the First Close

The endgame is a bump, but there are several scenarios at the first close. The most likely scenario is the extension of close and add....

Arun George

Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 4 February. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Arun George

[Japan CorpGov] TSE "Mgmt Conscious" Reports (Feb26) - Disappointing Case Studies, Weak Study Group

The TSE releases a list every month with names of cos which have submitted "Management Conscious of Share Price/Cost of Capital" policies. We do it...

Travis Lundy

Kandenko (1942 JP): A US$1.0 Billion Secondary Offering

The timing of the placement after upgrading full-year forecasts will not be well-received. The offering as a percentage of out. shares and ADV are...

Arun George

Aequitas: Kokusai Electric Placement - Last Deal Did Ok, but the Stock Has Done Very Well Since

Applied Materials (AMAT US) (AM) is looking to raise approximately US$510m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 5% of Kokusai...

Sumeet Singh

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