Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Akeso reported C1H24 top line, non-IFRS operating loss and IFRS net loss 10% above, 13% narrower and 3.5% narrower than our estimates. </li>
<li>The most positive takeaway from the result is the Phase III start of CD-47 mAb (AK117), which can potentially be a global first-in-class (FIC). </li>
<li>We raised TP from HK$58 to HK$63 and reiterate our TOP BUY.</li>
</ul>


Akeso reported C1H24 top line, non-IFRS operating loss and IFRS net loss 10% above, 13% narrower and 3.5% narrower than our estimates. 
The most positive takeaway from the result is the Phase III start of CD-47 mAb (AK117), which can potentially be a global first-in-class (FIC). 
We raised TP from HK$58 to HK$63 and reiterate our TOP BUY.


[Akeso Inc. (9926 HK, BUY, TP HK$63) TP Change]: Too Many Positives to Count…Reiterate TOP BUY

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~28% y-o-y (+)</li>
<li>ATAT US/TCOM US: Hotel industry showcased strong performance in the last week of August due to eased base effect.(+/+)</li>
<li>Macro Update: The mortgage interest rate for existing loans may be further reduced, releasing at least RMB200 billion of residents' funds annually, bodes well for consumption in China(+)</li>
</ul>


1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~28% y-o-y (+)
ATAT US/TCOM US: Hotel industry showcased strong performance in the last week of August due to eased base effect.(+/+)
Macro Update: The mortgage interest rate for existing loans may be further reduced, releasing at least RMB200 billion of residents' funds annually, bodes well for consumption in China(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/ATAT US/TCOM US/9926 HK/Macro Update

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Biotech will continue selling early-stage pipeline in a sluggish market, but this will further lower its valuation as financing won't improve quickly.</li>
<li>Pharmaceutical distribution companies are facing challenges, driving ongoing consolidation in the industry. However, this trend will ultimately benefit the growth of leading companies in the long run.</li>
<li>If investors truly understand "the essence" of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">HEC Changjiang Pharma</a>, they will be more calm/rational to look at this absorption merger and the inclusion of Hang Seng family of indexes.</li>
</ul>


Biotech will continue selling early-stage pipeline in a sluggish market, but this will further lower its valuation as financing won't improve quickly.
Pharmaceutical distribution companies are facing challenges, driving ongoing consolidation in the industry. However, this trend will ultimately benefit the growth of leading companies in the long run.
If investors truly understand "the essence" of HEC Changjiang Pharma, they will be more calm/rational to look at this absorption merger and the inclusion of Hang Seng family of indexes.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1)-Biotech Sell Asset,Pharmaceutical Distribution Company,HEC CJ Pharma

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>In 1H24, Akeso recorded RMB1.03bn in revenue, including RMB939mn from product sales.</li><li>Cadonilimab/AK104 (PD-1/CTLA-4) recorded RMB706mn in sales in 1H24, +16% YoY or -6% HoH, accounting for 39% of our previous full-year estimate.</li><li>We attribute the weaker-than-expected sales performance to the preparation for NRDL inclusion. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In 1H24, Akeso recorded RMB1.03bn in revenue, including RMB939mn from product sales.Cadonilimab/AK104 (PD-1/CTLA-4) recorded RMB706mn in sales in 1H24, +16% YoY or -6% HoH, accounting for 39% of our previous full-year estimate.We attribute the weaker-than-expected sales performance to the preparation for NRDL inclusion. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Akeso (9926 HK) - Eyes on the Detailed Head-To-Head Data of AK112 at WCLC in Sep

<ul>
<li>The Share Alternative is necessary to improve success rate of privatization. Our guess is Henlius Biopharmaceuticals/Lin Lijun would vote for this privatization, but we’re not sure about Qatar Investment’s decision.</li>
<li>Due to its "flaws", undervaluation of Henlius is difficult to fundamentally change. So, those conservative and cautious investors would choose the Cash Alternative considering the risks behind the Share Alternative.</li>
<li>Even if there’re plans of re-listing, it may be based on a new entity formed after integrating Henlius and other assets within Fosun Pharma. So, the value of Rollover Entities/Securities remains uncertain.</li>
</ul>


The Share Alternative is necessary to improve success rate of privatization. Our guess is Henlius Biopharmaceuticals/Lin Lijun would vote for this privatization, but we’re not sure about Qatar Investment’s decision.
Due to its "flaws", undervaluation of Henlius is difficult to fundamentally change. So, those conservative and cautious investors would choose the Cash Alternative considering the risks behind the Share Alternative.
Even if there’re plans of re-listing, it may be based on a new entity formed after integrating Henlius and other assets within Fosun Pharma. So, the value of Rollover Entities/Securities remains uncertain.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - Privatization Has Taken a Positive Step Forward

China

Akeso Inc. operates operatesa s a biotech company. The compnay develops treatments and therapies for various types of diseases. Akeso serves cutomers worldwide

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Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK)

[Akeso Inc. (9926 HK, BUY, TP HK$63) TP Change]: Too Many Positives to Count…Reiterate TOP BUY

Akeso reports better-than-expected financial results, with positive Phase III start for CD-47 mAb (AK117) leading to a raised price target and top...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/ATAT US/TCOM US/9926 HK/Macro Update

Weekly parcel volume in HK and the US grew by 28%, the hotel industry in the US showed strong performance, and China may see a boost in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1)-Biotech Sell Asset,Pharmaceutical Distribution Company,HEC CJ Pharma

Biotech's decision to sell pipeline will continue in sluggish market, leading to lower valuation. Pharmaceutical distribution companies face...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso (9926 HK) - Eyes on the Detailed Head-To-Head Data of AK112 at WCLC in Sep

Akeso recorded RMB239mn of attributable net loss in 1H24. As of Jun 2024, Akeso had a sufficient cash balance of RMB5.69bn.

CMB International

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - Privatization Has Taken a Positive Step Forward

Share Alternative is necessary to improve success rate of privatization, but there're risk behind. As undervaluation of Henlius is difficult to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Akeso Inc. (9926 HK, BUY, TP HK$63) TP Change]: Too Many Positives to Count…Reiterate TOP BUY

​Akeso reports better-than-expected financial results, with positive Phase III start for CD-47 mAb (AK117) leading to a raised price target and top...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/ATAT US/TCOM US/9926 HK/Macro Update

​Weekly parcel volume in HK and the US grew by 28%, the hotel industry in the US showed strong performance, and China may see a boost in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.1)-Biotech Sell Asset,Pharmaceutical Distribution Company,HEC CJ Pharma

​Biotech's decision to sell pipeline will continue in sluggish market, leading to lower valuation. Pharmaceutical distribution companies face...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso (9926 HK) - Eyes on the Detailed Head-To-Head Data of AK112 at WCLC in Sep

Akeso recorded RMB239mn of attributable net loss in 1H24. As of Jun 2024, Akeso had a sufficient cash balance of RMB5.69bn.

CMB International

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - Privatization Has Taken a Positive Step Forward

Share Alternative is necessary to improve success rate of privatization, but there're risk behind. As undervaluation of Henlius is difficult to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso reports better-than-expected financial results, with positive Phase III start for CD-47 mAb (AK117) leading to a raised price target and top...

Weekly parcel volume in HK and the US grew by 28%, the hotel industry in the US showed strong performance, and China may see a boost in...

Biotech's decision to sell pipeline will continue in sluggish market, leading to lower valuation. Pharmaceutical distribution companies face...