Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our current, overbought extremes according to the S&amp;P 500’s percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (see chart below). We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process, and we prefer to be on the cautious side at current levels considering how far and how quickly the market has risen. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks within Materials and Technology: large- and small-cap gold, silver, platinum, and optical equipment companies.

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our current, overbought extremes according to the S&amp;P 500’s percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average (see chart below). We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process, and we prefer to be on the cautious side at current levels considering how far and how quickly the market has risen. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks within Materials and Technology: large- and small-cap gold, silver, platinum, and optical equipment companies.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Nearing Short-Term Overbought Extremes

Key themes:<ul><li>Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength still exist (e.g. exchanges), but breadth is problematic... see page 3</li><li>Gold miners are bullishly inflecting. A Group we recommended last week, gold miners continue to bullishly inflect. This is a buying opportunity... see pages 3, 8-14</li><li>Buy biotechs, overweight Health Care. In today’s report we highlight actionable charts throughout Health Care, our top-ranked Sector, emphasizing widespread opportunities within biotechs ... see pages 3, 15-19</li></ul>

Key themes:Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength still exist (e.g. exchanges), but breadth is problematic... see page 3Gold miners are bullishly inflecting. A Group we recommended last week, gold miners continue to bullishly inflect. This is a buying opportunity... see pages 3, 8-14Buy biotechs, overweight Health Care. In today’s report we highlight actionable charts throughout Health Care, our top-ranked Sector, emphasizing widespread opportunities within biotechs ... see pages 3, 15-19

U.S. Equity Strategy: Reiterating Biotechs, Gold Miners; Downgrading Financials to Market Weight

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small/medium-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be 27 ADDs and 3 DELs for the March 2026 rebal. We had predicted 12 ADDs (10 were right) and 1 DEL (it was right). A HUGE tail.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$1.98bn for the March 2026 rebal on 20 March 2026 at the close. </li>
</ul>


The MV Global Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small/medium-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be 27 ADDs and 3 DELs for the March 2026 rebal. We had predicted 12 ADDs (10 were right) and 1 DEL (it was right). A HUGE tail.
We expect a one-way flow of US$1.98bn for the March 2026 rebal on 20 March 2026 at the close. 


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Mar26 Results: 27 ADDs and 3 DELs; US$2bn One-Way

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.</li>
<li>There are many expected changes for the March 2026 rebal event and we currently see one-way flow of US$1.3bn for March 2026.</li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
There are many expected changes for the March 2026 rebal event and we currently see one-way flow of US$1.3bn for March 2026.


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Mar26 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$1.3bn One-Way

<ul>
<li>The MV Global J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of US$386mm for the December 2025 rebal.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event.
We expect one-way flow of US$386mm for the December 2025 rebal.


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

Canada

Alamos Gold Inc. is an intermediate gold producer. The Company acquires, explores and produces gold from mines located in Canada, Mexico and the United States.

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Alamos Gold Inc (AGI CN)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Nearing Short-Term Overbought Extremes

Positive news surrounding trade and dovish Fed rhetoric has continued to flow, resulting in a reversal from December's oversold extremes to our...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Reiterating Biotechs, Gold Miners; Downgrading Financials to Market Weight

Key themes: Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Mar26 Results: 27 ADDs and 3 DELs; US$2bn One-Way

The bottom end of the MV Junior Gold Index has now admitted far more names than we expected. That meant two more get kicked out of the top end....

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Mar26 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$1.3bn One-Way

We expect a number of ADDs to the MV Junior Gold Miners Index in March. It has been a big move. Things may move out of reach quickly too. Recos are...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

There are no ADDs and no DELETEs to the MV Junior Gold Miners Index for Dec 2025 (19 December) but there is about US$800mm to trade and several...

Travis Lundy

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