Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Lagged results: Q1 EPS surged 171% QoQ on aluminum price strength, offsetting alumina softness; EBITDA rose to $855M despite weaker volumes.</li>
<li>Tariff overhang: $105M quarterly drag from Section 232 now embedded; net annual impact ~$100M—yet Midwest premium offsets buffer U.S. exposure.</li>
<li>Trading near book at 1.04x P/B—cycle pessimism and policy risks may present contrarian upside.</li>
</ul>


Lagged results: Q1 EPS surged 171% QoQ on aluminum price strength, offsetting alumina softness; EBITDA rose to $855M despite weaker volumes.
Tariff overhang: $105M quarterly drag from Section 232 now embedded; net annual impact ~$100M—yet Midwest premium offsets buffer U.S. exposure.
Trading near book at 1.04x P/B—cycle pessimism and policy risks may present contrarian upside.


Tariffs and Troughs: Alcoa’s Pain May Be the Entry Point

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nanshan Aluminium International / Equity Capital Markets

Nanshan Aluminium International (2610 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanshan-aluminium-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43976:1" rel="noopener">Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK)</a> , raised around US$302m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK) , raised around US$302m in its Hong Kong IPO.
It is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Nanshan Aluminium IPO Trading: Low Institutional Coverage, Likely to Trade Weak

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Alcoa Corporation's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings report presents a multifaceted picture of the company's performance and future outlook, highlighting both positive achievements and areas of concern.</li><li>In 2024, Alcoa achieved significant operational and financial milestones.</li><li>The company witnessed improved safety metrics and recorded no fatalities or life-altering injuries, which underscores its commitment to creating a safer work environment.</li></ul>

Alcoa Corporation's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings report presents a multifaceted picture of the company's performance and future outlook, highlighting both positive achievements and areas of concern.In 2024, Alcoa achieved significant operational and financial milestones.The company witnessed improved safety metrics and recorded no fatalities or life-altering injuries, which underscores its commitment to creating a safer work environment.

Alcoa’s Surprising Bauxite Boom: The Hidden Catalyst Driving Market Domination! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the strengths and potential concerns facing the company.</li><li>The report showcased Alcoa’s resilience and adaptability in navigating the complex global market landscape for aluminum and alumina.</li><li>On the positive side, Alcoa Corporation displayed commendable operational consistency and strategic foresight.</li></ul>

Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the strengths and potential concerns facing the company.The report showcased Alcoa’s resilience and adaptability in navigating the complex global market landscape for aluminum and alumina.On the positive side, Alcoa Corporation displayed commendable operational consistency and strategic foresight.

Alcoa Corporation: Alumina Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.</li>
<li>For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.
For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

United States

Alcoa Corporation manufactures metal products. The Company produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa serves aluminum industry worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Alcoa (AA US)

Tariffs and Troughs: Alcoa’s Pain May Be the Entry Point

Lagged results. Valuation reset offers value despite tariff overhang and policy risks. Trading near book at 1.04x P/B presents contrarian upside.

Rahul Jain

Nanshan Aluminium IPO Trading: Low Institutional Coverage, Likely to Trade Weak

Nanshan Aluminium, raised around US$302m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia. In this note,...

Nicholas Tan

Alcoa’s Surprising Bauxite Boom: The Hidden Catalyst Driving Market Domination! - Major Drivers

Alcoa Corporation's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings report presents a multifaceted picture of the company's performance and future...

Baptista Research

Alcoa Corporation: Alumina Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the...

Baptista Research

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

If the new shares issued by Westgold (WGX AU) for its acquisition of Karora (KRR CN) is added to its initial share count, Westgold will become the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)