Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alcoa Corporation reported a strong first quarter for 2025, highlighted by improved safety performance and stable production across most operations.</li><li>The company maintained a commitment to operational excellence, focusing on safety, stability, and continuous improvement amid positive market conditions.</li><li>A key development was the improvement at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, which is now operating at 91% capacity.</li></ul>

Alcoa Corporation reported a strong first quarter for 2025, highlighted by improved safety performance and stable production across most operations.The company maintained a commitment to operational excellence, focusing on safety, stability, and continuous improvement amid positive market conditions.A key development was the improvement at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, which is now operating at 91% capacity.

Alcoa's Strategic Pivot Under Fire: Will Its Bold Moves Be Enough to Weather the Tariff Storm?

Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Lagged results: Q1 EPS surged 171% QoQ on aluminum price strength, offsetting alumina softness; EBITDA rose to $855M despite weaker volumes.</li>
<li>Tariff overhang: $105M quarterly drag from Section 232 now embedded; net annual impact ~$100M—yet Midwest premium offsets buffer U.S. exposure.</li>
<li>Trading near book at 1.04x P/B—cycle pessimism and policy risks may present contrarian upside.</li>
</ul>


Lagged results: Q1 EPS surged 171% QoQ on aluminum price strength, offsetting alumina softness; EBITDA rose to $855M despite weaker volumes.
Tariff overhang: $105M quarterly drag from Section 232 now embedded; net annual impact ~$100M—yet Midwest premium offsets buffer U.S. exposure.
Trading near book at 1.04x P/B—cycle pessimism and policy risks may present contrarian upside.


Tariffs and Troughs: Alcoa’s Pain May Be the Entry Point

<ul><li>Alcoa Corporation's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings report presents a multifaceted picture of the company's performance and future outlook, highlighting both positive achievements and areas of concern.</li><li>In 2024, Alcoa achieved significant operational and financial milestones.</li><li>The company witnessed improved safety metrics and recorded no fatalities or life-altering injuries, which underscores its commitment to creating a safer work environment.</li></ul>

Alcoa Corporation's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings report presents a multifaceted picture of the company's performance and future outlook, highlighting both positive achievements and areas of concern.In 2024, Alcoa achieved significant operational and financial milestones.The company witnessed improved safety metrics and recorded no fatalities or life-altering injuries, which underscores its commitment to creating a safer work environment.

Alcoa’s Surprising Bauxite Boom: The Hidden Catalyst Driving Market Domination! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the strengths and potential concerns facing the company.</li><li>The report showcased Alcoa’s resilience and adaptability in navigating the complex global market landscape for aluminum and alumina.</li><li>On the positive side, Alcoa Corporation displayed commendable operational consistency and strategic foresight.</li></ul>

Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the strengths and potential concerns facing the company.The report showcased Alcoa’s resilience and adaptability in navigating the complex global market landscape for aluminum and alumina.On the positive side, Alcoa Corporation displayed commendable operational consistency and strategic foresight.

Alcoa Corporation: Alumina Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation. </li>
<li>FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun'25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY. </li>
<li>With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%. </li>
</ul>


US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation. 
FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun'25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY. 
With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%. 


US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

United States

Alcoa Corporation manufactures metal products. The Company produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa serves aluminum industry worldwide.

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Alcoa (AA US)

Alcoa's Strategic Pivot Under Fire: Will Its Bold Moves Be Enough to Weather the Tariff Storm?

Alcoa Corporation reported a strong first quarter for 2025, highlighted by improved safety performance and stable production across most...

Baptista Research

Tariffs and Troughs: Alcoa’s Pain May Be the Entry Point

Lagged results. Valuation reset offers value despite tariff overhang and policy risks. Trading near book at 1.04x P/B presents contrarian upside.

Rahul Jain

Alcoa’s Surprising Bauxite Boom: The Hidden Catalyst Driving Market Domination! - Major Drivers

Alcoa Corporation's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings report presents a multifaceted picture of the company's performance and future...

Baptista Research

Alcoa Corporation: Alumina Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the...

Baptista Research

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Alcoa's Strategic Pivot Under Fire: Will Its Bold Moves Be Enough to Weather the Tariff Storm?

Alcoa Corporation reported a strong first quarter for 2025, highlighted by improved safety performance and stable production across most...

Baptista Research

Tariffs and Troughs: Alcoa’s Pain May Be the Entry Point

Lagged results. Valuation reset offers value despite tariff overhang and policy risks. Trading near book at 1.04x P/B presents contrarian upside.

Rahul Jain

Alcoa’s Surprising Bauxite Boom: The Hidden Catalyst Driving Market Domination! - Major Drivers

Alcoa Corporation's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings report presents a multifaceted picture of the company's performance and future...

Baptista Research

Alcoa Corporation: Alumina Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the...

Baptista Research

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

​US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...