Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.</li>
<li>Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.</li>
<li>Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.</li>
</ul>


Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.


US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alcoa Corporation reported a strong start to 2026, with performance driven by higher aluminum prices, stable operations, and disciplined execution across its portfolio, though underlying segment dynamics remain uneven.</li><li>Revenue declined sequentially due to seasonally lower shipments and disruptions affecting the Alumina segment, including logistical constraints tied to geopolitical tensions and weather-related issues.</li><li>Despite this, profitability improved meaningfully, supported by stronger realized aluminum prices and favorable mark-to-market movements.</li></ul>

Alcoa Corporation reported a strong start to 2026, with performance driven by higher aluminum prices, stable operations, and disciplined execution across its portfolio, though underlying segment dynamics remain uneven.Revenue declined sequentially due to seasonally lower shipments and disruptions affecting the Alumina segment, including logistical constraints tied to geopolitical tensions and weather-related issues.Despite this, profitability improved meaningfully, supported by stronger realized aluminum prices and favorable mark-to-market movements.

Alcoa Corporation: What Matters Now Is Aluminum Pricing Not Segment Divergence!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>After downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass, we further downgraded our outlook to bearish last week (3/31/26 Compass)...</li>
<li>...with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, Nasdaq futures (NQ) violating 24,000 support, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking down below crucial $245 support.</li>
<li>Quick reclaims are technically bullish, but we discussed last week how we'd be sellers on rallies to 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA on SPX(currently 6648), and that remains our playbook.</li>
</ul>


After downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass, we further downgraded our outlook to bearish last week (3/31/26 Compass)...
...with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, Nasdaq futures (NQ) violating 24,000 support, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking down below crucial $245 support.
Quick reclaims are technically bullish, but we discussed last week how we'd be sellers on rallies to 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA on SPX(currently 6648), and that remains our playbook.


Concerns Persist; SPX Testing Resistance at 21-Day EMA and Near 200-Day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation. </li>
<li>FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun'25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY. </li>
<li>With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%. </li>
</ul>


US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation. 
FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun'25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY. 
With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%. 


US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>One of a basket of Hong Kong commodity stocks we like</li>
<li>One off issues in 2023 which should reverse in 2024</li>
<li>Can also be viewed as  a tangential play on India's industrial growth</li>
</ul>


One of a basket of Hong Kong commodity stocks we like
One off issues in 2023 which should reverse in 2024
Can also be viewed as  a tangential play on India's industrial growth


Citic Resource Holdings (1205.HK) - A Play on Oil and Coal Demand

United States

Alcoa Corporation manufactures metal products. The Company produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa serves aluminum industry worldwide.

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Alcoa (AA US)

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Alcoa Corporation: What Matters Now Is Aluminum Pricing Not Segment Divergence!

Alcoa Corporation reported a strong start to 2026, with performance driven by higher aluminum prices, stable operations, and disciplined execution...

Baptista Research

Concerns Persist; SPX Testing Resistance at 21-Day EMA and Near 200-Day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact

Concerns Persist; $SPX Testing Resistance at 21-day EMA and Near 200-day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact. Actionable ideas within Staples $XLP and...

Vermilion Research

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Citic Resource Holdings (1205.HK) - A Play on Oil and Coal Demand

This is a cheap underperformer in the commodity space. Leveraged to coal and oil, hence the underperformance. It has recently moved up due to the...

Rikki Malik

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US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Alcoa Corporation: What Matters Now Is Aluminum Pricing Not Segment Divergence!

Alcoa Corporation reported a strong start to 2026, with performance driven by higher aluminum prices, stable operations, and disciplined execution...

Baptista Research

Concerns Persist; SPX Testing Resistance at 21-Day EMA and Near 200-Day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact

Concerns Persist; $SPX Testing Resistance at 21-day EMA and Near 200-day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact. Actionable ideas within Staples $XLP and...

Vermilion Research

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

​US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Citic Resource Holdings (1205.HK) - A Play on Oil and Coal Demand

This is a cheap underperformer in the commodity space. Leveraged to coal and oil, hence the underperformance. It has recently moved up due to the...

Rikki Malik

US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...