Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Alumina's wild swings have turned favourably for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> . Aluminium constituted about 40% 9MFY25 EBITDA and could see significant near-term margin expansion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a>'s over-reliance on external alumina sales implies it could face significant margin contraction in the near-term.</li>
<li>Valuation: Both VEDL and AA trade at about 10x fwd consensus earnings. VEDL also has &gt;10% dividend yield in recent years making it a far attractive bet. </li>
</ul>


Alumina's wild swings have turned favourably for Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) . Aluminium constituted about 40% 9MFY25 EBITDA and could see significant near-term margin expansion.

Alcoa (AA US)'s over-reliance on external alumina sales implies it could face significant margin contraction in the near-term.
Valuation: Both VEDL and AA trade at about 10x fwd consensus earnings. VEDL also has &gt;10% dividend yield in recent years making it a far attractive bet. 


Vedanta (VEDL IN) Set for Major Margin Expansion

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the strengths and potential concerns facing the company.</li><li>The report showcased Alcoa’s resilience and adaptability in navigating the complex global market landscape for aluminum and alumina.</li><li>On the positive side, Alcoa Corporation displayed commendable operational consistency and strategic foresight.</li></ul>

Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the strengths and potential concerns facing the company.The report showcased Alcoa’s resilience and adaptability in navigating the complex global market landscape for aluminum and alumina.On the positive side, Alcoa Corporation displayed commendable operational consistency and strategic foresight.

Alcoa Corporation: Alumina Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.</li>
<li>For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.
For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Datasite's A$2.50/share, in cash, lifetime-high Offer for virtual room provider <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansarada-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30718:1" rel="noopener">Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU)</a></strong>, announced on the 13th Feb, appeared a total slam dunk. </li>
<li>And for the most part it was, with the Explanatory Doc lodged on the 12th April, and Scheme Meeting initially scheduled for the 14th June. Then the ACCC waded in. </li>
<li>The ACCC has now signed off. FIRB will follow shortly.  The revised Scheme Meeting will be held on the 19 August, with expected implementation on the 6 September.  </li>
</ul>


Datasite's A$2.50/share, in cash, lifetime-high Offer for virtual room provider Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU), announced on the 13th Feb, appeared a total slam dunk. 
And for the most part it was, with the Explanatory Doc lodged on the 12th April, and Scheme Meeting initially scheduled for the 14th June. Then the ACCC waded in. 
The ACCC has now signed off. FIRB will follow shortly.  The revised Scheme Meeting will be held on the 19 August, with expected implementation on the 6 September.  


Ansarada (AND AU)'s Scheme Is Back On Track

<ul><li>Alcoa's revenue increased sequentially to $2.9 billion, driven by higher alumina and aluminum prices.</li><li>In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue saw a 5% rise due to increased average realized prices, despite lower shipments.</li><li>The Aluminum segment reported a 16% increase in third-party revenue, attributed to higher prices and increased shipments.</li></ul>

Alcoa's revenue increased sequentially to $2.9 billion, driven by higher alumina and aluminum prices.In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue saw a 5% rise due to increased average realized prices, despite lower shipments.The Aluminum segment reported a 16% increase in third-party revenue, attributed to higher prices and increased shipments.

Alcoa Corporation: What Is The Impact Of Increasing Alumina and Aluminum Prices? - Major Drivers

United States

Alcoa Corporation manufactures metal products. The Company produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa serves aluminum industry worldwide.

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Alcoa (AA US)

Vedanta (VEDL IN) Set for Major Margin Expansion

Alumina price swings benefit Vedanta Ltd while Alcoa faces margin contraction. Vedanta offers better valuation and dividend yield.

Rahul Jain

Alcoa Corporation: Alumina Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the...

Baptista Research

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

If the new shares issued by Westgold (WGX AU) for its acquisition of Karora (KRR CN) is added to its initial share count, Westgold will become the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Ansarada (AND AU)'s Scheme Is Back On Track

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 1.6%/15.4%. If small, clean, illiquid arbs are your thing, get involved here and on any pullback.

David Blennerhassett

Alcoa Corporation: What Is The Impact Of Increasing Alumina and Aluminum Prices? - Major Drivers

Alcoa's revenue increased sequentially to $2.9 billion, driven by higher alumina and aluminum prices. In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue...

Baptista Research

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Vedanta (VEDL IN) Set for Major Margin Expansion

​Alumina price swings benefit Vedanta Ltd while Alcoa faces margin contraction. Vedanta offers better valuation and dividend yield.

Rahul Jain

Alcoa Corporation: Alumina Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation exhibited a blend of strategic progress and challenges, shedding light on both the...

Baptista Research

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

If the new shares issued by Westgold (WGX AU) for its acquisition of Karora (KRR CN) is added to its initial share count, Westgold will become the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Ansarada (AND AU)'s Scheme Is Back On Track

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 1.6%/15.4%. If small, clean, illiquid arbs are your thing, get involved here and on any pullback.

David Blennerhassett

Alcoa Corporation: What Is The Impact Of Increasing Alumina and Aluminum Prices? - Major Drivers

Alcoa's revenue increased sequentially to $2.9 billion, driven by higher alumina and aluminum prices. In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue...

Baptista Research

Alumina price swings benefit Vedanta Ltd while Alcoa faces margin contraction. Vedanta offers better valuation and dividend yield.