Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Management claimed 4Q25 total revenue should grow by 10% YoY excluding two sold subsidiaries.</li>
<li>The growth rate of customer management revenue rose to two digits in 4Q25.</li>
<li>The main business margin was stable and most of the minor business margins rose YoY in 4Q25.</li>
</ul>


Management claimed 4Q25 total revenue should grow by 10% YoY excluding two sold subsidiaries.
The growth rate of customer management revenue rose to two digits in 4Q25.
The main business margin was stable and most of the minor business margins rose YoY in 4Q25.


Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Baba has rallied 26.6% off the April low but remains 6.82% below its March high. Against this backdrop, we examine implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.</li>
<li>Implied volatility and the implied jump are both elevated relative to historical norms.</li>
<li>Given the setup, we suggest a short-vega hedge that offers downside protection while preserving limited upside participation.</li>
</ul>


Baba has rallied 26.6% off the April low but remains 6.82% below its March high. Against this backdrop, we examine implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
Implied volatility and the implied jump are both elevated relative to historical norms.
Given the setup, we suggest a short-vega hedge that offers downside protection while preserving limited upside participation.


BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>Diagonal Spreads account for nearly 30% of all strategies. Many of these strategies sell short term risk to finance longer term protection.</li>
<li>Several structures hedge against low probability tail events. One such strategy traded 100 contracts.</li>
</ul>


Over the past five trading days, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Diagonal Spreads account for nearly 30% of all strategies. Many of these strategies sell short term risk to finance longer term protection.
Several structures hedge against low probability tail events. One such strategy traded 100 contracts.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 70th percentile, while realized volatility exceeds 80% (96th percentile).</li>
<li>A relatively flat term structure and skew render Calendar and Diagonal Spreads interesting strategies.</li>
<li>Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across all expiries.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 70th percentile, while realized volatility exceeds 80% (96th percentile).
A relatively flat term structure and skew render Calendar and Diagonal Spreads interesting strategies.
Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across all expiries.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Volatility Surface Favoring Diagonal and Calendar Spreads

<ul>
<li>We believe the boycott against JD.com benefited Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall Group in 3Q25 results. </li>
<li>We believe 3Q25 results will not reflect the benefits of the disposal of Intime and Sun Art despite that Alibaba may not revise its financial data in 3Q25 results.</li>
<li>We set a stock upside of 42% for the next twelve months.</li>
</ul>


We believe the boycott against JD.com benefited Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall Group in 3Q25 results. 
We believe 3Q25 results will not reflect the benefits of the disposal of Intime and Sun Art despite that Alibaba may not revise its financial data in 3Q25 results.
We set a stock upside of 42% for the next twelve months.


Alibaba (BABA) 3Q25 Preview: Benefit from Boycott Against Competitor and Disposals

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy

Management claimed total revenue should grow by 10% YoY in 4Q25 if excluding two sold subsidiaries. The growth rate of customer management revenue...

Ming Lu

BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

Baba has rallied but remains below March high, implied vol and jump are high, consider short-vega hedge for downside protection.

John Ley

Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Alibaba's recent live option strategies feature Diagonal Spreads and protection against low probability tail events, with one strategy trading 100...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK): Volatility Surface Favoring Diagonal and Calendar Spreads

Alibaba's volatility remains high, making Calendar and Diagonal Spreads attractive strategies. Open interest extends to 2026 with balanced call...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (BABA) 3Q25 Preview: Benefit from Boycott Against Competitor and Disposals

We believe the boycott against JD.com benefited Alibaba’s 3Q25 results. We also believe Alibaba will benefit from disposals of Intime and Sun Art....

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy

Management claimed total revenue should grow by 10% YoY in 4Q25 if excluding two sold subsidiaries. The growth rate of customer management revenue...

Ming Lu

BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

​Baba has rallied but remains below March high, implied vol and jump are high, consider short-vega hedge for downside protection.

John Ley

Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

​Alibaba's recent live option strategies feature Diagonal Spreads and protection against low probability tail events, with one strategy trading 100...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK): Volatility Surface Favoring Diagonal and Calendar Spreads

​Alibaba's volatility remains high, making Calendar and Diagonal Spreads attractive strategies. Open interest extends to 2026 with balanced call...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (BABA) 3Q25 Preview: Benefit from Boycott Against Competitor and Disposals

We believe the boycott against JD.com benefited Alibaba’s 3Q25 results. We also believe Alibaba will benefit from disposals of Intime and Sun Art....

Ming Lu

Baba has rallied but remains below March high, implied vol and jump are high, consider short-vega hedge for downside protection.

Alibaba's recent live option strategies feature Diagonal Spreads and protection against low probability tail events, with one strategy trading 100...

Alibaba's volatility remains high, making Calendar and Diagonal Spreads attractive strategies. Open interest extends to 2026 with balanced call...