HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

We find <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK)</a> (CNDX) an interesting and deeply undervalued asset play - investors will miss the big picture if they still consider the company as a sportswear with a weak competitive position. The vast value of CNDX lies in its investment portfolio and net cash, and the current 0.38x P/B is too depressed for its quality investments and strong financial position. Through its investments, particularly PE investments, CNDX gains indirect interests to many superb names include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, Cainiao Network, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a>, JD Digital, MeWe etc. We see potential positive catalysts include a sale of Kappa, IPOs of the PE-owned ventures, increase in dividend payout and a privatisation of the company.

We find China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK) (CNDX) an interesting and deeply undervalued asset play - investors will miss the big picture if they still consider the company as a sportswear with a weak competitive position. The vast value of CNDX lies in its investment portfolio and net cash, and the current 0.38x P/B is too depressed for its quality investments and strong financial position. Through its investments, particularly PE investments, CNDX gains indirect interests to many superb names include Ant Financial Services Group, Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), Cainiao Network, Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK), JD Digital, MeWe etc. We see potential positive catalysts include a sale of Kappa, IPOs of the PE-owned ventures, increase in dividend payout and a privatisation of the company.

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): It's Not a Sportswear Company....It's a Cheap Investment Fund

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

Haidilao International Holding / Index Rebalance

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 26 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, there are 3 inclusions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>. This takes the number of index constituents to 55 and sets the stage for a further increase in the number of stocks as a part of the market consultation, the conclusions of which are to be announced on 1 March.One-way turnover is estimated at 2.65% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$6.08bn. The highest impact is on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a> while the impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a> is lower, though still substantial.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes, so the three stocks should move up on Monday and outperform their peers till implementation date.Hang Seng Indexes is scheduled to announce the conclusions of the market consultation on Monday, 1 March and there will be a lot more changes to the index. These changes should commence at the June 2021 review and will most likely be implemented in 4 tranches, concluding at the March 2022 review.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 26 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March.For the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), there are 3 inclusions - Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), Longfor Properties (960 HK) and Haidilao (6862 HK). This takes the number of index constituents to 55 and sets the stage for a further increase in the number of stocks as a part of the market consultation, the conclusions of which are to be announced on 1 March.One-way turnover is estimated at 2.65% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$6.08bn. The highest impact is on Longfor Properties (960 HK) while the impact on Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK) and Haidilao (6862 HK) is lower, though still substantial.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes, so the three stocks should move up on Monday and outperform their peers till implementation date.Hang Seng Indexes is scheduled to announce the conclusions of the market consultation on Monday, 1 March and there will be a lot more changes to the index. These changes should commence at the June 2021 review and will most likely be implemented in 4 tranches, concluding at the March 2022 review.

Hang Seng Index Rebalance: Three Adds; Market Consultation Conclusions on 1 March

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> recently released the performance announcement for 2020. The Company’s revenue in 2020 was RMB6.87 billion, up 35.5% YoY. Net loss was RMB950 million, up 27% YoY, and the adjusted net loss fell 25.8% YoY to RMB516 million. Although the above financial data has some positive side, and recently the Company’s share price hit a historical new high (HK$148.5), considering the problems on its business, user base, management team, fierce competition and future challenges, perhaps it is the time to think of some concerns.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) recently released the performance announcement for 2020. The Company’s revenue in 2020 was RMB6.87 billion, up 35.5% YoY. Net loss was RMB950 million, up 27% YoY, and the adjusted net loss fell 25.8% YoY to RMB516 million. Although the above financial data has some positive side, and recently the Company’s share price hit a historical new high (HK$148.5), considering the problems on its business, user base, management team, fierce competition and future challenges, perhaps it is the time to think of some concerns. 

Ping An Good Doctor (1833.HK) - It Is the Time to Look at Some Concerns

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Given the significant uncertainty surrounding 1) the impact that a regulatory-induced restructuring could have on the eventually listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>, and 2) the full final impact of increased anti-monopoly regulatory efforts from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, it has been difficult to assess a fair valuation level for the company. Following the indefinite suspension of Ant Group’s IPO, in November 2020, we witnessed a c.30% sell-off (or $260bn!) in Alibaba Group’s share price, before starting its recovery back to current levels, triggered by the reappearance of Jack Ma and a solid earnings report for the quarter ended December 2020. The net result, however, has been a roughly 17% (or $140bn) decline in Alibaba’s listed value. In this insight, I take a deep dive into Alibaba’s Sum-of-The-Parts valuation to assess what implied value is currently priced in for their equity holding in Ant Group, and what can be deduced from the current valuation for their Core Commerce operations.

Given the significant uncertainty surrounding 1) the impact that a regulatory-induced restructuring could have on the eventually listed Ant Group (6688 HK), and 2) the full final impact of increased anti-monopoly regulatory efforts from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) on the Alibaba Group (9988 HK), it has been difficult to assess a fair valuation level for the company. Following the indefinite suspension of Ant Group’s IPO, in November 2020, we witnessed a c.30% sell-off (or $260bn!) in Alibaba Group’s share price, before starting its recovery back to current levels, triggered by the reappearance of Jack Ma and a solid earnings report for the quarter ended December 2020. The net result, however, has been a roughly 17% (or $140bn) decline in Alibaba’s listed value. In this insight, I take a deep dive into Alibaba’s Sum-of-The-Parts valuation to assess what implied value is currently priced in for their equity holding in Ant Group, and what can be deduced from the current valuation for their Core Commerce operations.

Alibaba: A Detailed Look at the SOTP, and What that Tells Us About the Ant Group and Core Commerce

Event-Driven

On 22 December 2020 post market close, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) released the consultation paper on the "Proposal to enhance the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market". Market participants had until 24 January to submit their views to HSIL.HSIL are scheduled to announce the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as a part of the March review on 26 February. There is a high probability that the conclusions of the market consultation will be announced on the same day.Given some large new listings since then and the price movements on the stocks, we refresh our list of potential inclusions and exclusions assuming that HSIL go up to 65 names or 80 names.In both cases, the turnover is very high in percentage terms and in dollar terms. HSIL will need to implement the changes over 1 year.We continue to believe that the market will probably be fine with increasing the number of constituents to 65, but will likely balk at going up to 80 in one shot.Financials would see the largest decrease in weight, offset by gains in Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Properties, Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities.

On 22 December 2020 post market close, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) released the consultation paper on the "Proposal to enhance the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market". Market participants had until 24 January to submit their views to HSIL.HSIL are scheduled to announce the changes to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as a part of the March review on 26 February. There is a high probability that the conclusions of the market consultation will be announced on the same day.Given some large new listings since then and the price movements on the stocks, we refresh our list of potential inclusions and exclusions assuming that HSIL go up to 65 names or 80 names.In both cases, the turnover is very high in percentage terms and in dollar terms. HSIL will need to implement the changes over 1 year.We continue to believe that the market will probably be fine with increasing the number of constituents to 65, but will likely balk at going up to 80 in one shot.Financials would see the largest decrease in weight, offset by gains in Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Properties, Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities.

HSI Market Consultation - Name Changes as We Await the Conclusions

China

Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited is an integrated healthcare information and content service provider. The Company uses product identification, authentication, and tracking system data for its healthcare information.

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Alibaba Health Information Tec (241 HK)

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): It's Not a Sportswear Company....It's a Cheap Investment Fund

China Dongxiang is a deeply undervalued asset play, instead of a second-tier sportswear company in China. We believe focusing on the sportswear...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index Rebalance: Three Adds; Market Consultation Conclusions on 1 March

There are 3 inclusions to the HSI - Ali Health, Longfor Prop and Haidilao. With 10 days to implementation, the stocks should outperform....

Brian Freitas

Ping An Good Doctor (1833.HK) - It Is the Time to Look at Some Concerns

This article analyzed some concerns of Ping An Good Doctor in terms of its business and financials (revenue growth, net loss, online pharmacy,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Alibaba: A Detailed Look at the SOTP, and What that Tells Us About the Ant Group and Core Commerce

In this insight, I take a deep dive into Alibaba’s Sum-of-The-Parts to assess the implied value for their equity holding in Ant Group, and what can...

Wium Malan, CFA

HSI Market Consultation - Name Changes as We Await the Conclusions

The conclusions of the HSI market consultation could be announced on 26 Feb along with the March review. Given recent large listings and price...

Brian Freitas

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