HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Angelalign Technology  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to declining performance, lack of core competitiveness and increasing competition, the market has to re-examine the growth potential and outlook of Angelalign.The era of high margin is fading away.</li>
<li>Angelalign’s low-price strategy is easily hit by similar products with lower prices. Once its price loses advantage, it will directly lead to a rapid and substantial decline in overall performance.</li>
<li>Due to its worse-than-expected 2022H1 performance and economic downturn, we lowered our 2022 forecast of Angelalign. Angelalign shouldn't be valued that much higher than Align Technology, expecting more downside ahead. </li>
</ul>


Due to declining performance, lack of core competitiveness and increasing competition, the market has to re-examine the growth potential and outlook of Angelalign.The era of high margin is fading away.
Angelalign’s low-price strategy is easily hit by similar products with lower prices. Once its price loses advantage, it will directly lead to a rapid and substantial decline in overall performance.
Due to its worse-than-expected 2022H1 performance and economic downturn, we lowered our 2022 forecast of Angelalign. Angelalign shouldn't be valued that much higher than Align Technology, expecting more downside ahead. 


Angelalign Technology (6699.HK) 22H1 - Still “Bubble” in Valuation; The Era of High Margin Is Over

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/angelalign-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31480:1" rel="noopener">Angelalign Technology (6699 HK)</a> has reported muted H1 2022 results, which were negatively impacted by the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in China and the corresponding restrictions.</li>
<li>Revenue from core business of clear aligner treatment grew just 3% y/y. However, lower ASP and higher cost of sales, pulled down the gross profit margin by 930bps to 60.2%.</li>
<li>Thus far in H2 2022, China has imposed lockdowns in multiple major cities. With the uncertainty over the duration of COVID, no immediate respite is seen in Angelalign’s business.</li>
</ul>



Angelalign Technology (6699 HK) has reported muted H1 2022 results, which were negatively impacted by the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in China and the corresponding restrictions.
Revenue from core business of clear aligner treatment grew just 3% y/y. However, lower ASP and higher cost of sales, pulled down the gross profit margin by 930bps to 60.2%.
Thus far in H2 2022, China has imposed lockdowns in multiple major cities. With the uncertainty over the duration of COVID, no immediate respite is seen in Angelalign’s business.


Angelalign Technology (6699 HK): 1H22 Profit Drops As Challenging Operating Environment Continued

<ul>
<li>Due to better-than-expected VBP results, we saw a decent rally of MDG’s share price last Friday. However, all the medical products that are covered by VBP begin to lose logic. </li>
<li>Backwardness in R&amp;D is a bottleneck restricting MDG's future growth. MDG is more like a manufacturing/processing plant relying on labor dividends than a technology company with high product added value.</li>
<li>Multiple risks (e.g.pandemic, depreciation of exchange rate against US dollar, economic downturn, etc.) will add more uncertainties to MDG's 2022 performance. MDG’s share price could remain tepid after temporary rally. </li>
</ul>


Due to better-than-expected VBP results, we saw a decent rally of MDG’s share price last Friday. However, all the medical products that are covered by VBP begin to lose logic. 
Backwardness in R&amp;D is a bottleneck restricting MDG's future growth. MDG is more like a manufacturing/processing plant relying on labor dividends than a technology company with high product added value.
Multiple risks (e.g.pandemic, depreciation of exchange rate against US dollar, economic downturn, etc.) will add more uncertainties to MDG's 2022 performance. MDG’s share price could remain tepid after temporary rally. 


Modern Dental Group (3600.HK) 22H1- Share Price May Remain Tepid Due to Lack of Core Competitiveness

<ul>
<li>Due to pandemic/lockdown/economic downturn, the case shipments could further decline. Our revenue forecast this year is below 20%, or even below 15%. We also lowered our forecast on profit margins.</li>
<li>Limited qualified orthodontists in China and challenging internationalization cast doubts on Angelalign’s long term growth prospects. We can’t see high growth potential of Angelalign with certainty.</li>
<li>Angelalign’s performance in 2022 would be under pressure. Although PE/TTM reached about 73 by the end of June 10 after corrections, it's still overvalued. The upside potential could be limited.</li>
</ul>


Due to pandemic/lockdown/economic downturn, the case shipments could further decline. Our revenue forecast this year is below 20%, or even below 15%. We also lowered our forecast on profit margins.
Limited qualified orthodontists in China and challenging internationalization cast doubts on Angelalign’s long term growth prospects. We can’t see high growth potential of Angelalign with certainty.
Angelalign’s performance in 2022 would be under pressure. Although PE/TTM reached about 73 by the end of June 10 after corrections, it's still overvalued. The upside potential could be limited.


Angelalign Technology (6699.HK) - There Is Still Plenty of Downside, but Limited Upside Potential

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/align-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2817:1" rel="noopener">Align Technology (ALGN US)</a> reported underwhelming Q1 results. Both revenue and earnings missed consensus and were down sequentially.</li>
<li>Sequential results primarily reflect lower volumes mainly due to continued impact of the COVID-19 causing lesser patient traffic and practice closure.</li>
<li>Due to increased uncertainty across all its operating markets, the company suspended 2022 revenue guidance. Earlier, Align guided for 20–30% y/y revenue growth in 2022.</li>
</ul>



Align Technology (ALGN US) reported underwhelming Q1 results. Both revenue and earnings missed consensus and were down sequentially.
Sequential results primarily reflect lower volumes mainly due to continued impact of the COVID-19 causing lesser patient traffic and practice closure.
Due to increased uncertainty across all its operating markets, the company suspended 2022 revenue guidance. Earlier, Align guided for 20–30% y/y revenue growth in 2022.


Align Technology (ALGN US) Q1 Results: Both Revenue and Earnings Miss, First Time in Last Two Years

United States

Align Technology, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets the Invisalign System, a method for treating the misalignment of teeth.  The Company's system corrects the misalignment using a series of clear, removable appliances that move teeth to a desired final position.

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Align Technology (ALGN US)

Angelalign Technology (6699.HK) 22H1 - Still “Bubble” in Valuation; The Era of High Margin Is Over

Due to fierce competition and lack of core competitiveness, the market has to re-examine the growth potential and outlook of Angelalign. The era of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Angelalign Technology (6699 HK): 1H22 Profit Drops As Challenging Operating Environment Continued

Angelalign continued to be negatively impacted by China’s zero COVID policy and reported muted H1 2022 results. Both revenue and profit declined....

Tina Banerjee

Angelalign Technology (6699.HK) - There Is Still Plenty of Downside, but Limited Upside Potential

Shortage of orthodontists/weak internationalization largely limit Angelalign's growth potential.Pandemic/lockdown/economic downturn will put...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang