Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. This week we are focusing on Consumer Staples and Health Care, two Sectors that have been less-loved over the past several months. We also highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Technology, Financials, Real Estate, Communications, and Utilities.

We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. This week we are focusing on Consumer Staples and Health Care, two Sectors that have been less-loved over the past several months. We also highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Technology, Financials, Real Estate, Communications, and Utilities.

EM Equities At New Highs Despite Some Caution Signs

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Fast food drives improved performance</li><li>Growing emphasis on domestically produced ingredients</li><li>Convenience stores strengthen their position</li><li>Independents losing out to chains</li><li>Tax hike delayed</li><li>Socio-economic change added downward pressure on consumerfoodservice</li></ul>

Fast food drives improved performanceGrowing emphasis on domestically produced ingredientsConvenience stores strengthen their positionIndependents losing out to chainsTax hike delayedSocio-economic change added downward pressure on consumerfoodservice

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Ministry of Finance has published an updated "FEFTA List" of classifications of listed companies as of July 15, 2025. </li>
<li>50 names lowered their ranks from the most "core" Type 3 to Type 2(20), or Type 1(30). 104 names raised from Type 1(51) or Type 2(53) to Type 3.</li>
<li>Smartkarma readers may want to peruse the lists and details to see if they think companies are trying to protect themselves (from threats as yet not known by the public).</li>
</ul>


The Ministry of Finance has published an updated "FEFTA List" of classifications of listed companies as of July 15, 2025. 
50 names lowered their ranks from the most "core" Type 3 to Type 2(20), or Type 1(30). 104 names raised from Type 1(51) or Type 2(53) to Type 3.
Smartkarma readers may want to peruse the lists and details to see if they think companies are trying to protect themselves (from threats as yet not known by the public).


David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>For July 2025, just six new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was 45%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%</li>
</ul>


For July 2025, just six new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was 45%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%


(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2025 Wrap: Pacific Industrial, Johns Lyon, TalkMed, DD Group, Hanil Cement

Canada

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. owns and operates convenience store. The Company offers a wide range of merchandise, including coffee, snacks, beverages, grocery products, beer and wine, and lottery tickets, as well as fuel and other services. Alimentation Couche-Tard serves customers globally.

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Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD/B CN)

EM Equities At New Highs Despite Some Caution Signs

We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and...

Vermilion Research

Consumer Foodservice in Japan

Fast food drives improved performance Growing emphasis on domestically produced ingredients Convenience stores strengthen their...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

FEFTA Classification Changes Summer 2025

The Japanese Ministry of Finance updated its Classification List for FEFTA designation of listed companies in late July. This happens periodically....

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2025 Wrap: Pacific Industrial, Johns Lyon, TalkMed, DD Group, Hanil Cement

For the month of July, 6 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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