Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A recent speech from Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer suggests that the secular decline in the neutral rate of interest is guiding the Fed’s view and internal debate around policy normalization.  Fischer cites a number of developments that have contributed to lower real interest rates, including the low capital intensity of the IT sector, the demographics of ageing and high savings rates in EM.</li><li>To the extent that these structural shifts are long lasting, Fischer suggests this supports the case for the neutral rate remaining low for the policy relevant future.   This represents a hint that growth in the US economy might remain tepid for some time and that inflation will remain low thanks to the long lasting powerful impact of excess desired saving over investment intentions.</li><li>If Fischer is right that the saving-investment imbalance is expected to persist and hold down the neutral rate of interest for the foreseeable future, then the new policy normal of low and slow should provide an environment conducive to continued strong returns from listed Australian infrastructure stocks - notably SYD, TCL and APA - despite the fact their valuations remain stretched.  Investors should treat any pull-backs in these stocks as a buying opportunities</li></ul>

A recent speech from Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer suggests that the secular decline in the neutral rate of interest is guiding the Fed’s view and internal debate around policy normalization.  Fischer cites a number of developments that have contributed to lower real interest rates, including the low capital intensity of the IT sector, the demographics of ageing and high savings rates in EM.To the extent that these structural shifts are long lasting, Fischer suggests this supports the case for the neutral rate remaining low for the policy relevant future.   This represents a hint that growth in the US economy might remain tepid for some time and that inflation will remain low thanks to the long lasting powerful impact of excess desired saving over investment intentions.If Fischer is right that the saving-investment imbalance is expected to persist and hold down the neutral rate of interest for the foreseeable future, then the new policy normal of low and slow should provide an environment conducive to continued strong returns from listed Australian infrastructure stocks - notably SYD, TCL and APA - despite the fact their valuations remain stretched.  Investors should treat any pull-backs in these stocks as a buying opportunities 

Infrastructure Assets to Benefit from the New Normal of Low and Slow

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today showed that new motor vehicle registrations fell sharply in the month of October by 3.6%, representing the largest monthly decline since December 2011.  But this follows a 5.9% rise in September, the largest monthly gain since December 2011.Looking through the elevated volatility of the series of recent months, the trend remains robust.  New motor vehicle registrations are 4.2% higher than a year ago and remain close to a record high…

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today showed that new motor vehicle registrations fell sharply in the month of October by 3.6%, representing the largest monthly decline since December 2011.  But this follows a 5.9% rise in September, the largest monthly gain since December 2011.Looking through the elevated volatility of the series of recent months, the trend remains robust.  New motor vehicle registrations are 4.2% higher than a year ago and remain close to a record high…

Australian New Motor Vehicle Registrations Pull Back in October, but the Trend Remains Robust

<ul><li>This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;</li><li>I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;</li><li>I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.</li></ul>

This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Elliott ups its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> and considers the proposed Offer to be significantly undervalues the company. </li>
<li>No matter how you slice it, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a>is trading rich. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is trading even richer. </li>
<li>Is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14210:1" rel="noopener">Genting  (GENT MK)</a>'s low-balled Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3141:1" rel="noopener">Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)</a> all about securing statutory control; or is there scope for a bump now that the transaction has turned unconditional? </li>
</ul>


Elliott ups its stake in Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and considers the proposed Offer to be significantly undervalues the company. 
No matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)is trading rich. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is trading even richer. 
Is Genting  (GENT MK)'s low-balled Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) all about securing statutory control; or is there scope for a bump now that the transaction has turned unconditional? 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, Zijin Mining, Genting Malaysia, Jardine Matheson

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report</li></ul>

APA Group - Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition - Jun 30, 2025

Australia

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd. is a mining services company. The Company specializes in providing transportation by air of its mining and energy customers' employees and contractors to and from remote locations, ad hoc charter services - operating commercial air charters servicing the needs of Government and corporate customers, and wet leasing services.

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Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)

Infrastructure Assets to Benefit from the New Normal of Low and Slow

A recent speech from Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer suggests that the secular decline in the neutral rate of interest is guiding the Fed’s view and...

Sam Ferraro

Australian New Motor Vehicle Registrations Pull Back in October, but the Trend Remains Robust

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today showed that new motor vehicle registrations fell sharply in the month of October by...

Sam Ferraro

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

This post provides an update of Evidente’s currency model. Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also...

Sam Ferraro

Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, Zijin Mining, Genting Malaysia, Jardine Matheson

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

APA Group - Australian Broker Call Extra Edition - Jun 30, 2025

Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

FNArena

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