AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TurboQuant triggered the sell-off, but the market appears to have priced a uniform demand shock across memory, despite the impact being limited to inference efficiency.</li>
<li>Supply remains tight; HBM capacity largely locked into 2026; TrendForce revised DRAM and NAND pricing sharply higher after the TurboQuant announcement. </li>
<li>Relevant risks sit elsewhere: early signs of pricing resistance in commodity memory, emerging share gains from Chinese suppliers, and a shift toward more staggered hyperscaler spending</li>
</ul>


TurboQuant triggered the sell-off, but the market appears to have priced a uniform demand shock across memory, despite the impact being limited to inference efficiency.
Supply remains tight; HBM capacity largely locked into 2026; TrendForce revised DRAM and NAND pricing sharply higher after the TurboQuant announcement. 
Relevant risks sit elsewhere: early signs of pricing resistance in commodity memory, emerging share gains from Chinese suppliers, and a shift toward more staggered hyperscaler spending


Memory's TurboQuant Panic Misses Where Demand Actually Sits

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Explosive AI-driven data centre expansion is rapidly increasing U.S. electricity demand, with consumption projected to nearly double by 2030, reshaping long-term power generation dynamics.</li>
<li>Despite aggressive renewable procurement, natural gas remains the backbone of a reliable 24/7 power supply, positioning it as the primary bridge between intermittent renewables and hyperscale energy needs.</li>
<li>While data-centre-driven gas demand will provide incremental price support by 2026, it is unlikely to dominate Henry Hub pricing until later this decade.</li>
</ul>


Explosive AI-driven data centre expansion is rapidly increasing U.S. electricity demand, with consumption projected to nearly double by 2030, reshaping long-term power generation dynamics.
Despite aggressive renewable procurement, natural gas remains the backbone of a reliable 24/7 power supply, positioning it as the primary bridge between intermittent renewables and hyperscale energy needs.
While data-centre-driven gas demand will provide incremental price support by 2026, it is unlikely to dominate Henry Hub pricing until later this decade.


Data Centres: Today’s Cushion, Tomorrow’s Price Driver

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly, The Physical Layer

The Physical Layer

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly

A journal on the physical constraints behind the AI buildout: power, grid connection, data centres, cooling and the supply chains that gate them. Written to be understood by anyone.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors.</li><li>It also designs the custom AI chips that Google, Meta, OpenAI and others are building to rely less on Nvidia.</li><li>So whichever way the biggest buyers turn, the work runs through Broadcom, and the risk sits with a handful of very powerful customers.</li></ul>

Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors.It also designs the custom AI chips that Google, Meta, OpenAI and others are building to rely less on Nvidia.So whichever way the biggest buyers turn, the work runs through Broadcom, and the risk sits with a handful of very powerful customers.

Broadcom is paid whether the cloud giants stay with Nvidia or leave

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>SPX is pulling back after hitting all-time highs; the gap at 6750-6772 is short-term support, and it is a clear sign bulls remain in control if this gap remains unfilled.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as the 3+ month uptrend continues (currently at ~6675). Additional supports include 6550-6569, 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6290, 6200, and 6100-6150</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
SPX is pulling back after hitting all-time highs; the gap at 6750-6772 is short-term support, and it is a clear sign bulls remain in control if this gap remains unfilled.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as the 3+ month uptrend continues (currently at ~6675). Additional supports include 6550-6569, 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6290, 6200, and 6100-6150


Magnificent Seven's Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month SPX Uptrend and 50-Day MA

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek has permanently changed the future of AI.  With its R1 model the company democratized AI much the same as Google did for search more than 20 years ago.</li>
<li>China's platform companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> have released their own AI models.</li>
<li>As China's AI industry is benefiting from DeepSeek's cost-effective innovations, the US hyperscalers are being questioned on their ability to justify their enormous AI investments, historical and projected investments.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek has permanently changed the future of AI.  With its R1 model the company democratized AI much the same as Google did for search more than 20 years ago.
China's platform companies like Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) , Tencent (700 HK) , Baidu (9888 HK) , and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) have released their own AI models.
As China's AI industry is benefiting from DeepSeek's cost-effective innovations, the US hyperscalers are being questioned on their ability to justify their enormous AI investments, historical and projected investments.


DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

United States

Alphabet Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOGL US)

Memory's TurboQuant Panic Misses Where Demand Actually Sits

TurboQuant sell-off triggers panic on inference efficiency. However, supply is tight, and pricing is revised higher. Risks seen in Chinese...

Mint Finance

Data Centres: Today’s Cushion, Tomorrow’s Price Driver

AI-driven data centre expansion is driving a surge in electricity demand, with nat-gas playing a key role. Gas demand will support prices, but...

Mint Finance

Broadcom is paid whether the cloud giants stay with Nvidia or leave

Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors. It also designs the custom...

The Physical Layer

Magnificent Seven's Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month SPX Uptrend and 50-Day MA

Magnificent Seven's $MAGS Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month $SPX Uptrend and 50-day MA, currently 6655-6680. Buys: $AAPL $TSLA $NVDA $GOOGL...

Vermilion Research

DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

China's large tech firms made announcements about their AI chip advancements igniting a market rally. This shows China's efforts to develop...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Memory's TurboQuant Panic Misses Where Demand Actually Sits

​TurboQuant sell-off triggers panic on inference efficiency. However, supply is tight, and pricing is revised higher. Risks seen in Chinese...

Mint Finance

Data Centres: Today’s Cushion, Tomorrow’s Price Driver

​AI-driven data centre expansion is driving a surge in electricity demand, with nat-gas playing a key role. Gas demand will support prices, but...

Mint Finance

Broadcom is paid whether the cloud giants stay with Nvidia or leave

Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors. It also designs the custom...

The Physical Layer

Magnificent Seven's Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month SPX Uptrend and 50-Day MA

Magnificent Seven's $MAGS Turn to Shine; Buy Pullbacks to 3+ Month $SPX Uptrend and 50-day MA, currently 6655-6680. Buys: $AAPL $TSLA $NVDA $GOOGL...

Vermilion Research

DeepSeek Reveals AI's Trillion Dollar Folly: Winners and Losers

China's large tech firms made announcements about their AI chip advancements igniting a market rally. This shows China's efforts to develop...

David Mudd

TurboQuant sell-off triggers panic on inference efficiency. However, supply is tight, and pricing is revised higher. Risks seen in Chinese...

AI-driven data centre expansion is driving a surge in electricity demand, with nat-gas playing a key role. Gas demand will support prices, but...