TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Meta now trades at 14x P/E and 6x fwd EV/EBITDA...valuation inline with Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery. This is nuts!</li>
<li>While the drumbeat of competitive concerns and self inflicted wounds has piled up in the past month, even core Facebook is not in a death spiral of engagement.</li>
<li>META is investing in new ad tech and ad formats, and has the ability to cut significant opex from its budget that could yield 10-20% upside to current 2023 consensus.</li>
</ul>


Meta now trades at 14x P/E and 6x fwd EV/EBITDA...valuation inline with Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery. This is nuts!
While the drumbeat of competitive concerns and self inflicted wounds has piled up in the past month, even core Facebook is not in a death spiral of engagement.
META is investing in new ad tech and ad formats, and has the ability to cut significant opex from its budget that could yield 10-20% upside to current 2023 consensus.


What Are the Prospects for a Meta Rebound?

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Google will invest $735mn (¥105bn) through 2023 on Japan infrastructure including its first local data center and additional subsea capacity</li>
<li>The Google CEO met with Prime Minister Kishida and the announcement scores political points but it also makes sense with a material JP business and the weak yen</li>
<li>Google is probably Japan's largest Internet advertising company with an estimated ¥685bn in FY21 sales</li>
</ul>


Google will invest $735mn (¥105bn) through 2023 on Japan infrastructure including its first local data center and additional subsea capacity
The Google CEO met with Prime Minister Kishida and the announcement scores political points but it also makes sense with a material JP business and the weak yen
Google is probably Japan's largest Internet advertising company with an estimated ¥685bn in FY21 sales


Google in Japan - Infrastructure Investments Highlight Japan Growth and Forex Shift

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>North American allocations continue to trend higher, hitting a record average weight of 58.1% across the 358 global funds in our analysis</li>
<li>North America has consistently stolen market share from other key global regions, most notably Developed Market Europe, where average fund weights have hit all-time lows of 24.24%</li>
<li>Sectors driving allocations higher are led by Energy, Health Care and Industrials with active rotation in to all 3, whilst Consumer Staples have seen signs of investor fatigue.</li>
</ul>


North American allocations continue to trend higher, hitting a record average weight of 58.1% across the 358 global funds in our analysis
North America has consistently stolen market share from other key global regions, most notably Developed Market Europe, where average fund weights have hit all-time lows of 24.24%
Sectors driving allocations higher are led by Energy, Health Care and Industrials with active rotation in to all 3, whilst Consumer Staples have seen signs of investor fatigue.


North America Hits New Highs as Global Rotation Continues

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul><li>Job gains moderated in August, with 315,000 jobs added, more in line with the slower job gains from earlier this spring.</li><li>July's blockbuster job gains seemed like a positive fluke at the time of announcement, however, the July jobs report gains have held up to revisions, which were revised down only 2,000 jobs in the August report.</li><li>Job gains in August were broad based but were led by gains in the Financial &amp; Business Services and Education and Health Services sectors which each added 68,000 jobs during the month.</li></ul>

Job gains moderated in August, with 315,000 jobs added, more in line with the slower job gains from earlier this spring.July's blockbuster job gains seemed like a positive fluke at the time of announcement, however, the July jobs report gains have held up to revisions, which were revised down only 2,000 jobs in the August report.Job gains in August were broad based but were led by gains in the Financial &amp; Business Services and Education and Health Services sectors which each added 68,000 jobs during the month.

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/duolingo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33531:1" rel="noopener">Duolingo (DUOL US)</a>  reported solid 2QFY22 results and hosted annual Duocon 2022 event in August. Management raised full-year revenue guidance, but the stock remained range bound. </li>
<li>We model total revenues growing +45% y/y to $365M in FY22 and +42% y/y to $517M in FY23, up vs. our prior estimates and projections. </li>
<li>2QFY22 results beat all key estimates, driven by accelerating user growth and strength across the entire business. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/duolingo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33531:1" rel="noopener">Duolingo (DUOL US)</a>  remains our top mid-cap pick in the EdTech industry.</li>
</ul>



Duolingo (DUOL US)  reported solid 2QFY22 results and hosted annual Duocon 2022 event in August. Management raised full-year revenue guidance, but the stock remained range bound. 
We model total revenues growing +45% y/y to $365M in FY22 and +42% y/y to $517M in FY23, up vs. our prior estimates and projections. 
2QFY22 results beat all key estimates, driven by accelerating user growth and strength across the entire business. Duolingo (DUOL US)  remains our top mid-cap pick in the EdTech industry.


Duolingo. User Growth And Cash Flow Metrics Remain Robust. Management Raised FY22 Guidance

United States

Alphabet Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Alphabet (GOOGL US)

What Are the Prospects for a Meta Rebound?

Meta has seen its valuation converge with structurally impaired cable network / streamers with margins 50% lower. We think it can boost EPS through...

Aaron Gabin

Google in Japan - Infrastructure Investments Highlight Japan Growth and Forex Shift

Increased investment in Japan makes sense as its business is growing and the dollar has strengthened. In-country facilities should mean better...

Kirk Boodry

North America Hits New Highs as Global Rotation Continues

North American allocations among active Global investors hit record highs, driven by Energy, Health Care and Industrials rotation.

Steven Holden

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 9/5

Job gains moderated in August, with 315,000 jobs added, more in line with the slower job gains from earlier this spring.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Duolingo. User Growth And Cash Flow Metrics Remain Robust. Management Raised FY22 Guidance

Duolingo remains our top mid-cap pick in EdTech, and we believe the company’s growth profile of generating 40%+ organic growth is underappreciated...

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)