TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We think Snowflake is expensive, but not necessarily as expensive at it seems (44x CY22 revenues) when looked at on a growth adjusted metric (0.6x). This quarter didn’t reveal anything notable – the business is still doubling YoY, guidance for 90% growth next quarter seems conservative, and the operating model as a whole seems conservative (e.g. mid70s gross margin target vs. 73% today)…which is why we expect some sort of update coming in two weeks at Snowflake’s analyst day. The stock has become a consensus short, which explains some of the price action today on a just “ok” guidance. The recent drawdown below $200 represented a good entry point…we are long, and would add into Analyst Day.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We think Snowflake is expensive, but not necessarily as expensive at it seems (44x CY22 revenues) when looked at on a growth adjusted metric (0.6x). This quarter didn’t reveal anything notable – the business is still doubling YoY, guidance for 90% growth next quarter seems conservative, and the operating model as a whole seems conservative (e.g. mid70s gross margin target vs. 73% today)…which is why we expect some sort of update coming in two weeks at Snowflake’s analyst day. The stock has become a consensus short, which explains some of the price action today on a just “ok” guidance. The recent drawdown below $200 represented a good entry point…we are long, and would add into Analyst Day.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Snowflake 2Q22 Earnings: Stay Tuned to Analyst Day

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A relatively unknown Chinese AI startup <strong>DeepSeek</strong> has recently caused a stir in Silicon Valley challenging the dominance of established giants like OpenAI, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL US)</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms (Facebook) (META US)</a>.</li>
<li>DeepSeek's V3 model has a total of 671Bn parameters, or settings inside the AI model that it adjusts as it learns, it is actually only using 37Bn at a time.</li>
<li>The reported $5.5 million figure is not the total cost for developing <strong>DeepSeek-V3</strong>, it represents a significant portion of the training expenses. </li>
</ul>


A relatively unknown Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has recently caused a stir in Silicon Valley challenging the dominance of established giants like OpenAI, Alphabet (GOOGL US) Meta Platforms (Facebook) (META US).
DeepSeek's V3 model has a total of 671Bn parameters, or settings inside the AI model that it adjusts as it learns, it is actually only using 37Bn at a time.
The reported $5.5 million figure is not the total cost for developing DeepSeek-V3, it represents a significant portion of the training expenses. 


Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

<ul>
<li>The Magnificent Seven has increased by a whopping 111.6% in 2024, outpacing the return of S&amp;P500 at 26.3% during the same period.</li>
<li>The average return of the "Magnificent Seven" over the past month is approximately 3.61% whereas that for S&amp;P500 is approximately 2.33%.</li>
<li>However the Magnificent Seven are quite away from their peak now as the peak-to-present return range from -9.48% to -4.17%.</li>
</ul>


The Magnificent Seven has increased by a whopping 111.6% in 2024, outpacing the return of S&amp;P500 at 26.3% during the same period.
The average return of the "Magnificent Seven" over the past month is approximately 3.61% whereas that for S&amp;P500 is approximately 2.33%.
However the Magnificent Seven are quite away from their peak now as the peak-to-present return range from -9.48% to -4.17%.


When Will the Magnificent Seven Break New High Again?

United States

Alphabet Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOGL US)

Snowflake 2Q22 Earnings: Stay Tuned to Analyst Day

Snowflake has become a consensus short, we think the recent drawdown below $200 represented a good entry point…we are long, and would add into...

Aaron Gabin

DeepSeek AI: A Buzz or a Revolution?

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek challenges Silicon Valley giants with its V3 model boasting 671Bn parameters, only using 37Bn at a time. Reported $5.5...

Nimish Maheshwari

When Will the Magnificent Seven Break New High Again?

The Magnificent Seven outperform S&P500 in 2023 with a 111.6% increase, but are now below peak levels. Whether they can break new high again...

Alex Ng

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Snowflake 2Q22 Earnings: Stay Tuned to Analyst Day

Snowflake has become a consensus short, we think the recent drawdown below $200 represented a good entry point…we are long, and would add into...

Aaron Gabin

DeepSeek AI: A Buzz or a Revolution?

​Chinese AI startup DeepSeek challenges Silicon Valley giants with its V3 model boasting 671Bn parameters, only using 37Bn at a time. Reported $5.5...

Nimish Maheshwari

When Will the Magnificent Seven Break New High Again?

​The Magnificent Seven outperform S&P500 in 2023 with a 111.6% increase, but are now below peak levels. Whether they can break new high again...

Alex Ng

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek challenges Silicon Valley giants with its V3 model boasting 671Bn parameters, only using 37Bn at a time. Reported $5.5...

The Magnificent Seven outperform S&P500 in 2023 with a 111.6% increase, but are now below peak levels. Whether they can break new high again...