Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphamab-oncology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28213:1" rel="noopener">Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK)</a> 's NDA of KN026 (anbenitamab) in combination with chemotherapy for the treatment of patients with HER2+ gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer was accepted by NMPA.</li>
<li>Alphamab has four major products at this moment, one of them commercialized (KN035) and the rest (KN026, JSKN003 and KN046) in the advanced stages of trial or regulatory approval.</li>
<li>In 1H25, company reported an increase of 84% YoY in revenue mainly driven by licensing income. The strong Phase III line up provides a fair bit of revenue visibility.</li>
</ul>



Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK) 's NDA of KN026 (anbenitamab) in combination with chemotherapy for the treatment of patients with HER2+ gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer was accepted by NMPA.
Alphamab has four major products at this moment, one of them commercialized (KN035) and the rest (KN026, JSKN003 and KN046) in the advanced stages of trial or regulatory approval.
In 1H25, company reported an increase of 84% YoY in revenue mainly driven by licensing income. The strong Phase III line up provides a fair bit of revenue visibility.


Alphamab Oncology (9966 HK): Phase III Candidates Hold Opportunity Beyond KN035 (Envafolimab)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Even if the first indication of LBL-024 is approved, it wouldn't bring significant performance growth due to small market size for EP-NEC. Commercialization prospects of LBL-007 are also not optimistic.</li>
<li>Leads Biolabs’ CD3 pipelines would have higher hope to be successful. However, early-stage investors transferred their equity at a discount before IPO, which may reflect their concerns about the prospects.</li>
<li>Comfortable valuation is RMB3-4bn, which provides investors with a greater margin of safety.Especially in the context of current bull market of innovative drugs, biotech valuation has been full of bubble </li>
</ul>


Even if the first indication of LBL-024 is approved, it wouldn't bring significant performance growth due to small market size for EP-NEC. Commercialization prospects of LBL-007 are also not optimistic.
Leads Biolabs’ CD3 pipelines would have higher hope to be successful. However, early-stage investors transferred their equity at a discount before IPO, which may reflect their concerns about the prospects.
Comfortable valuation is RMB3-4bn, which provides investors with a greater margin of safety.Especially in the context of current bull market of innovative drugs, biotech valuation has been full of bubble 


Pre-IPO Nanjing Leads Biolabs (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Valuation and the Outlook

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 18th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Akeso, Tencent, Xiaomi, Pop Mart Intl, ABC, Xpeng.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 18th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Akeso, Tencent, Xiaomi, Pop Mart Intl, ABC, Xpeng.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jul 18th): Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Akeso, Tencent, Xiaomi

Ascentage Pharma / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.</li>
<li>Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.</li>
<li>The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.  </li>
</ul>


Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.
Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.
The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.  


Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement - Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook

China Medical System / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CMS announced proposed secondary listing on the SGX-ST. The Company is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. Its growth logic is shifting from "dependence on generic drugs" to "innovation-driven drugs".</li>
<li>However, the valuation logic has changed. The capital market will give high valuations to companies that achieve overseas licensing-out deals, rather than the attractive DCF model based on traditional business.</li>
<li>After 2023/2024 performance downturn, revenue growth is expected to return to positive in 2025. But in essence, CMS’s current business model is license-in, which will affect the future valuation performance. </li>
</ul>


CMS announced proposed secondary listing on the SGX-ST. The Company is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. Its growth logic is shifting from "dependence on generic drugs" to "innovation-driven drugs".
However, the valuation logic has changed. The capital market will give high valuations to companies that achieve overseas licensing-out deals, rather than the attractive DCF model based on traditional business.
After 2023/2024 performance downturn, revenue growth is expected to return to positive in 2025. But in essence, CMS’s current business model is license-in, which will affect the future valuation performance. 


Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) - About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook

China

Alphamab Oncology produces and sells drugs. The Company manufactures and sells tumor immunobiology macromolecular targeted drug and other products. Alphamab Oncology provides services worldwide.

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Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK)

Alphamab Oncology (9966 HK): Phase III Candidates Hold Opportunity Beyond KN035 (Envafolimab)

Alphamab's NDA for KN026 in combo with chemo for HER2+ cancer accepted by NMPA. 1H25 revenue growth driven by licensing income. Robust Phase III...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Nanjing Leads Biolabs (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Valuation and the Outlook

Leads Biolabs’ IPO debut benefit from the current bull market sentiment for innovative drugs in HK market.But the reduction of holdings by early...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jul 18th): Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Akeso, Tencent, Xiaomi

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlighted flows for Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Akeso, Tencent, Xiaomi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement - Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook

The Placing price of HK$68.6 has priced in successful licensing deal of APG-2575. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation. Biotech sector...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) - About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook

Listing in SGX opens a new chapter and CMS is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. But as valuation logic changes, license...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alphamab Oncology (9966 HK): Phase III Candidates Hold Opportunity Beyond KN035 (Envafolimab)

​Alphamab's NDA for KN026 in combo with chemo for HER2+ cancer accepted by NMPA. 1H25 revenue growth driven by licensing income. Robust Phase III...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Nanjing Leads Biolabs (PHIP Updates) - Thoughts on the Valuation and the Outlook

Leads Biolabs’ IPO debut benefit from the current bull market sentiment for innovative drugs in HK market.But the reduction of holdings by early...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jul 18th): Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Akeso, Tencent, Xiaomi

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlighted flows for Meituan, CCB, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Akeso, Tencent, Xiaomi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement - Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook

The Placing price of HK$68.6 has priced in successful licensing deal of APG-2575. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation. Biotech sector...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) - About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook

Listing in SGX opens a new chapter and CMS is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. But as valuation logic changes, license...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Alphamab's NDA for KN026 in combo with chemo for HER2+ cancer accepted by NMPA. 1H25 revenue growth driven by licensing income. Robust Phase III...