Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There was a news article I missed in late February saying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-alpine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1" rel="noopener">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a>, parent of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a> was in the process of selling the logistics unit.</li>
<li>A deal made sense for a strategic given the upcoming "2024 Problem". Pre-close, headlines blared, the stock popped 12%, now we're at double the end-February price.</li>
<li>Late in the evening,Alps Logistics said it had received a bid from Logisteed but nothing had been decided. This morning we have a few more details, but nothing concrete</li>
</ul>


There was a news article I missed in late February saying Alps Alpine (6770 JP), parent of Alps Logistics (9055 JP) was in the process of selling the logistics unit.
A deal made sense for a strategic given the upcoming "2024 Problem". Pre-close, headlines blared, the stock popped 12%, now we're at double the end-February price.
Late in the evening,Alps Logistics said it had received a bid from Logisteed but nothing had been decided. This morning we have a few more details, but nothing concrete


KKR Deal for Alps Logistics (9055) Appears Imminent

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Kazuo Inamori (稲盛和夫), founder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> precursor company DDI (Dai Ni Den Den), and former chairman of JAL overseeing restructuring, has passed.</li>
<li>In his own name, he owns 10.212mm shares of Kyocera, and likely other assets. Inheritance tax would be due 10 months from now. </li>
<li>Kyocera is not blowing out the lights compared to peers, but it is relatively inexpensive to its history and peers. If the shares are sold, Kyocera can buy them.</li>
</ul>


Kazuo Inamori (稲盛和夫), founder of Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) precursor company DDI (Dai Ni Den Den), and former chairman of JAL overseeing restructuring, has passed.
In his own name, he owns 10.212mm shares of Kyocera, and likely other assets. Inheritance tax would be due 10 months from now. 
Kyocera is not blowing out the lights compared to peers, but it is relatively inexpensive to its history and peers. If the shares are sold, Kyocera can buy them.


Kyocera (6971 JP) Founder Kazuo Inamori Passes - Implications for Holdings

Every year (usually in the beginning of September), the Nikkei Inc Index team conducts an annual review of the major price-weighted Nikkei indices - the most important being the Nikkei 225 Average - and adds and subtracts constituents according to the Rules.
Today, they announced the 2021 version of the changes (<a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210906E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>, <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210906E_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PAF changes</a>).
Below is Some Background. If you want to skip ahead to the juicy analysis, you can jump ahead to the Changes Announced section just below, and then more below the fold.
<h3>Some Background</h3>
The Nikkei 225, well-known globally as "the Nikkei" is a price-weighted index, originally started nearly 70 years ago as an average of a selected number of stocks listed on the TSE First Section. Later, it became 225 members. 
Because it is price-weighted, and because for a long time it made no divisor adjustments for stock splits (so when a stock split 2:1 its weight fell by half because price fell by half and trackers had to sell half their shares in that stock), and the price multiplier was determined by the par value of a company, then they later they started adjusting for splits, stocks which are old, never split, AND have a high price end up having a high weight in the index. 
There was a huge reshuffle in April 2000 when the Nikkei decided that the system needed rebalancing to include more tech, so they changed the Rules. They pushed 30 names out and 30 names in, and the 30 names added were 50% of the new index. 
Twenty one years after the prior change in methodology, this past May 10 the Nikkei Inc Index Team announced new changes to the Rules. There was a <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210510E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a>, with an <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210510E_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FAQ</a>, and <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210510E_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">supplemental data</a>. On 5 July, the Nikkei confirmed the proposal with a new <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210705E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Guidebook</a>.
When I wrote about this on 10 May in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/after-20yrs-nikkei-225-proposes-minor-impact-rule-changes-nintendo-disappointment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51277" rel="noopener">After 20yrs, Nikkei 225 Proposes Minor Impact Rule Changes (Nintendo Disappointment?)</a> I said I thought the changes disappointing. There are real problems with the index and this did not do much; the changes are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, with the only interesting change being that constituents are added with a weight no greater than 1%. If the normal price adjustment factor would allow a constituent to enter at a weight greater than 1%, the Price Adjustment Factor (base 1) is lowered in increments of 0.1 so that the deemed inclusion weight on Base Date (end of July) is no more than 1%. There is no change to the idea that the Nikkei Index Team can override their rankings at any time as they see fit.
Because the Nikkei Index Team had let the sector balances and rankings slide quite a bit over the years (not adding "obvious" names and not deleting names which should probably have been deleted, and not rebalancing the sectors as the rules say they should), the possibility was that some names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> and similar high-price-low-share-count names which "deserved" to be included were not simply because their very high price would create undue impact (it was undue impact and the lack of incremental float for high-weight low-share-count names which caused the BOJ to lower, then eventually cease their buying of Nikkei 225 ETFs). This rule on capping inclusions at 1% would go a ways to mitigating that problem so that would allow the Nikkei to add previously un-addable names. Expectations were high on a group of names, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence Corp (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>, and probably <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, with the latter two likely to create some real froth if actually selected. 
<h2>The Changes Announced</h2>
Today after the close, the Nikkei Index Team announced the following changes to the Nikkei 225 Average as a result of the Annual Review:
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</section>
The changes will be made on the last trading day of September, at the close. I expect to see $10bn trade on that day.
The new rules allow the Nikkei Index team to not do a lot to the sector mix if the additions are made because of "High Liquidity" because while the sector mix would normally mean more than three deleted, the new rules cap changes at 3 per annual rebalance (which is not enough).
As noted above, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> were among names which were expected as possible inclusions and therefore a certain amount of pre-positioning may be in place. They may get somewhat hurt tomorrow.
<div class="content-highlight">
There are a LOT of moving parts here. There are 3 ADDs, 3 DELETIONS, 1 Price Adjustment Factor moved sharply higher and one moved somewhat lower (a list of all the PAFs announced by the Nikkei is <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210906E_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), then there are another 220 stocks which will see selling on 30 September at the rebalance. 
</div>
For more detailed analysis of the stocks, their positioning, how much to buy, etc, please read on.
<hr>
For more about passive tracking in Japan, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-passive-who-owns-what-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55008" rel="noopener">JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2021?</a>

Every year (usually in the beginning of September), the Nikkei Inc Index team conducts an annual review of the major price-weighted Nikkei indices - the most important being the Nikkei 225 Average - and adds and subtracts constituents according to the Rules.
Today, they announced the 2021 version of the changes (announcement, PAF changes).
Below is Some Background. If you want to skip ahead to the juicy analysis, you can jump ahead to the Changes Announced section just below, and then more below the fold.
Some Background
The Nikkei 225, well-known globally as "the Nikkei" is a price-weighted index, originally started nearly 70 years ago as an average of a selected number of stocks listed on the TSE First Section. Later, it became 225 members. 
Because it is price-weighted, and because for a long time it made no divisor adjustments for stock splits (so when a stock split 2:1 its weight fell by half because price fell by half and trackers had to sell half their shares in that stock), and the price multiplier was determined by the par value of a company, then they later they started adjusting for splits, stocks which are old, never split, AND have a high price end up having a high weight in the index. 
There was a huge reshuffle in April 2000 when the Nikkei decided that the system needed rebalancing to include more tech, so they changed the Rules. They pushed 30 names out and 30 names in, and the 30 names added were 50% of the new index. 
Twenty one years after the prior change in methodology, this past May 10 the Nikkei Inc Index Team announced new changes to the Rules. There was a proposal, with an FAQ, and supplemental data. On 5 July, the Nikkei confirmed the proposal with a new Guidebook.
When I wrote about this on 10 May in After 20yrs, Nikkei 225 Proposes Minor Impact Rule Changes (Nintendo Disappointment?) I said I thought the changes disappointing. There are real problems with the index and this did not do much; the changes are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, with the only interesting change being that constituents are added with a weight no greater than 1%. If the normal price adjustment factor would allow a constituent to enter at a weight greater than 1%, the Price Adjustment Factor (base 1) is lowered in increments of 0.1 so that the deemed inclusion weight on Base Date (end of July) is no more than 1%. There is no change to the idea that the Nikkei Index Team can override their rankings at any time as they see fit.
Because the Nikkei Index Team had let the sector balances and rankings slide quite a bit over the years (not adding "obvious" names and not deleting names which should probably have been deleted, and not rebalancing the sectors as the rules say they should), the possibility was that some names like Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) and similar high-price-low-share-count names which "deserved" to be included were not simply because their very high price would create undue impact (it was undue impact and the lack of incremental float for high-weight low-share-count names which caused the BOJ to lower, then eventually cease their buying of Nikkei 225 ETFs). This rule on capping inclusions at 1% would go a ways to mitigating that problem so that would allow the Nikkei to add previously un-addable names. Expectations were high on a group of names, with Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP), Keyence Corp (6861 JP), ZOZO Inc (3092 JP), and probably Oriental Land (4661 JP), with the latter two likely to create some real froth if actually selected. 
The Changes Announced
Today after the close, the Nikkei Index Team announced the following changes to the Nikkei 225 Average as a result of the Annual Review:







The changes will be made on the last trading day of September, at the close. I expect to see $10bn trade on that day.
The new rules allow the Nikkei Index team to not do a lot to the sector mix if the additions are made because of "High Liquidity" because while the sector mix would normally mean more than three deleted, the new rules cap changes at 3 per annual rebalance (which is not enough).
As noted above, ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) and Oriental Land (4661 JP) were among names which were expected as possible inclusions and therefore a certain amount of pre-positioning may be in place. They may get somewhat hurt tomorrow.

There are a LOT of moving parts here. There are 3 ADDs, 3 DELETIONS, 1 Price Adjustment Factor moved sharply higher and one moved somewhat lower (a list of all the PAFs announced by the Nikkei is here), then there are another 220 stocks which will see selling on 30 September at the rebalance. 

For more detailed analysis of the stocks, their positioning, how much to buy, etc, please read on.

For more about passive tracking in Japan, please refer to JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2021? 

2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a> was for many years the small sad portion of the Alps/Alpine/AlpsLogistics corporate capital structure. There were times when one could play the parent vs the sub, or vs the subs, but it was never very worthwhile. When Alps took over Alpine, it looked perhaps like it would be a situation where the rest of the capital ownership would be rationalized. Unfortunately not. The fact that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-alpine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1" rel="noopener">Alps (6770 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alpine-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2704:1" rel="noopener">Alpine Electronics (6816 JP)</a> together engaged in awful governance for shareholders - with Alpine effectively gaslighting its own shareholders about the necessity of holding cash as a non-financial asset, and Alps going along with it despite its obligations to minority shareholders of its subsidiary but then later deciding that post-merger it was going to spend Alpine's cash for them - showing everyone Alpine did not need it - hopes for a good governance solution to the undervaluation of Alps Logistics were certainly diminished.<h2>The NEW News</h2>Today, the TSE announced that Alps Logistics would move to the TSE's First Section. It meets all the new TSE1 Listing Criteria which went into effect November 1st, but probably applied under the old rules. In any case, this is big news. Under the Quiddity TOPIX Inclusion Framework, Alps Logistics is SUPER GREEN.<section><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/182/465/original/image?1610624126" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="182465"></figure></section>That's good. However, someone appears to have figured this news out three days ago. Since Tuesday AM, the stock is up 32%. And as always after that kind of introduction, there is more below the fold.

Alps Logistics (9055 JP) was for many years the small sad portion of the Alps/Alpine/AlpsLogistics corporate capital structure. There were times when one could play the parent vs the sub, or vs the subs, but it was never very worthwhile. When Alps took over Alpine, it looked perhaps like it would be a situation where the rest of the capital ownership would be rationalized. Unfortunately not. The fact that Alps (6770 JP) and Alpine Electronics (6816 JP) together engaged in awful governance for shareholders - with Alpine effectively gaslighting its own shareholders about the necessity of holding cash as a non-financial asset, and Alps going along with it despite its obligations to minority shareholders of its subsidiary but then later deciding that post-merger it was going to spend Alpine's cash for them - showing everyone Alpine did not need it - hopes for a good governance solution to the undervaluation of Alps Logistics were certainly diminished.The NEW NewsToday, the TSE announced that Alps Logistics would move to the TSE's First Section. It meets all the new TSE1 Listing Criteria which went into effect November 1st, but probably applied under the old rules. In any case, this is big news. Under the Quiddity TOPIX Inclusion Framework, Alps Logistics is SUPER GREEN.That's good. However, someone appears to have figured this news out three days ago. Since Tuesday AM, the stock is up 32%. And as always after that kind of introduction, there is more below the fold.

Japan

Alps Alpine Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets electronic parts used for car electronics, computer peripheral equipment, and communications and broadcasting related equipment. The Company's products include printers, switches, ceramic trimmer capacitors, sensors, transceiver units for cellular phones, drives, and magnetic heads. Alps Alpine also operates logistics businesses.

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Alps Alpine (6770 JP)

KKR Deal for Alps Logistics (9055) Appears Imminent

KKR appears near a deal to buy Alps Logistics - Alps Alpine's distribution company. The deal was rumoured end-Feb and the stock has doubled since....

Travis Lundy

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

Kyocera (6971 JP) Founder Kazuo Inamori Passes - Implications for Holdings

Kyocera founder and KDDI "co-founder" Kazuo Inamori has passed away. He has a ¥80bn stake in Kyocera, and Kyocera owns 15% of KDDI. But overhang is...

Travis Lundy

2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT

The Nikkei 225 Rebalance is here. A small surprise in the ADDs. No surprises on the DELETEs. A couple of housekeeping changes, and 600 baskets to...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX Inclusion: Alps Logistics (9055)

Alps Logistics is up 32% in three days on no news, but today's news is that it moves to TSE1 in a week, triggering a TOPIX inclusion at end-Feb....

Travis Lundy

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