'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/055/original/2020-05-13_05-37-45.png?1589315906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133055"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>CASCADE - As expected, with many more of the larger listed companies reporting, our three Scores are falling in unison and at the fastest rate since 2008/9. With still over two-thirds of companies yet to report, there is more 'pain' ahead in this elongated 'season' of announcements. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/056/original/2020-05-13_06-21-24.png?1589318495" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133056"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/057/original/2020-05-13_06-22-14.png?1589318598" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133057"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap (¥75b+) companies yesterday:-<div><ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 269 results announcements was 117:23:129. The average change in Results Score was -0.8.</li>
<li>For the 129 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 39:7:83, and the average Revision Score was -4.6. Of the 213 companies declaring full-year results, 46% made forecasts for the current year.</li>
<li>
313 companies will announce on today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>,  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai (4523 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Tuesday's 'best' and 'worst' scoring results were from  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (9449 JP)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18567:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Electric (6641 JP)</a>, respectively. </li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsCASCADE - As expected, with many more of the larger listed companies reporting, our three Scores are falling in unison and at the fastest rate since 2008/9. With still over two-thirds of companies yet to report, there is more 'pain' ahead in this elongated 'season' of announcements. Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap (¥75b+) companies yesterday:-
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 269 results announcements was 117:23:129. The average change in Results Score was -0.8.
For the 129 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 39:7:83, and the average Revision Score was -4.6. Of the 213 companies declaring full-year results, 46% made forecasts for the current year.

313 companies will announce on today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be Sony (6758 JP), Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP),  and Eisai (4523 JP). 
Tuesday's 'best' and 'worst' scoring results were from  GMO Internet (9449 JP)  and Nissin Electric (6641 JP), respectively. 


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12th May - Secom, Shiseido, Toyota, Sysmex, Mitsui Fudosan

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyworth-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10941:1" rel="noopener">Skyworth (751 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-s-b-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46379:1" rel="noopener">J.S.B (3480 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/continental-aerospace-technologies-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15249:1" rel="noopener">Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tourism-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2787:1" rel="noopener">Tourism Holdings (THL NZ)</a>. 
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-dry-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13528:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-strategic-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30815:1" rel="noopener">Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-shoji-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2322:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Shoji (8141 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kodensha-co-ltd-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2741:1" rel="noopener">Kodensha Co (1948 JP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Skyworth (751 HK), Qoria (QOR AU), Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK), Humm Group (HUM AU), J.S.B (3480 JP), Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ). 

Lowest spreads: Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP), Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU), Shinko Shoji (8141 JP), Kodensha Co (1948 JP). 



Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jun) - Skyworth, Changhong Jiahua, Con Aero, JSB, Nippon Dry, Steadfast

Continental Aerospace Technologies / Event-Driven

Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK)

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lingyi-itech-guangdong-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19050:1" rel="noopener">Lingyi iTech Guangdong (002600 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-micro-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29768:1" rel="noopener">SG Micro (300661 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/go-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49420:1" rel="noopener">GO (581A JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manipal-health-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48013:1" rel="noopener">Manipal Health Enterprises Ltd (1217834D IN)</a> listings.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-dry-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13528:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-sheet-glass-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9013:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/continental-aerospace-technologies-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15249:1" rel="noopener">Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Lingyi iTech Guangdong (002600 CH), SG Micro (300661 CH), GO (581A JP) and Manipal Health Enterprises Ltd (1217834D IN) listings.
Event-Driven developments: Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP), Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP), oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU), Steadfast (SDF AU), Continental Aerospace Technologies (232 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK). 



Weekly Deals Digest (14 Jun) - Con Aero, ENN, Nippon Dry Chem, Nippon Sheet, OOh!Media, Steadfast

<ul>
<li>Neuberger <a href="https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000018.000059963.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issued a letter</a> concerning the unfair terms of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alsok-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14181:1" rel="noopener">Alsok (2331 JP)</a> and Carlyle offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-dry-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13528:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP)</a>. The first closing date is 29 June.</li>
<li>Neuberger, the second-largest shareholder, highlights six issues with the tender offer. While Neuberger’s criticisms have merit, the Board could credibly refute most of them. </li>
<li>The probability of a bump is low, as Neuberger cannot block the tender, the offer is attractive on several measures, and ALSOK/Carlyle can use the playbook to counter activists.  </li>
</ul>


Neuberger issued a letter concerning the unfair terms of the Alsok (2331 JP) and Carlyle offer for Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP). The first closing date is 29 June.
Neuberger, the second-largest shareholder, highlights six issues with the tender offer. While Neuberger’s criticisms have merit, the Board could credibly refute most of them. 
The probability of a bump is low, as Neuberger cannot block the tender, the offer is attractive on several measures, and ALSOK/Carlyle can use the playbook to counter activists.  


Nippon Dry-Chemical (1909 JP): Neuberger Starts an Activist Campaign, but Success Is Uncertain

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>ALSOK and Carlyle produced competing bids, overbid each other, then joined, then overbid themselves, to launch a TOB to buy fire safety company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-dry-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13528:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>It's a ten bagger since pre-covid and 10x forward EBITDA. It's a decent outcome. But it's trading through terms a week+ after announcement despite ALSOK+corps owning 50+%.</li>
<li>While it is not impossible an activist digs their teeth in, this is long enough in the tooth that a strategic jumping in seems unlikely. </li>
</ul>


ALSOK and Carlyle produced competing bids, overbid each other, then joined, then overbid themselves, to launch a TOB to buy fire safety company Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP). 
It's a ten bagger since pre-covid and 10x forward EBITDA. It's a decent outcome. But it's trading through terms a week+ after announcement despite ALSOK+corps owning 50+%.
While it is not impossible an activist digs their teeth in, this is long enough in the tooth that a strategic jumping in seems unlikely. 


[Japan Event] Carlyle and ALSOK Compete Then Join To Take Over NDC (1909) - ¥3,730

Japan

ALSOK Co.,Ltd. offers security services. The Company provides electronic security services, stationed and transportation security management, fire protection, and other services. ALSOK also conducts property management businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Alsok (2331 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12th May - Secom, Shiseido, Toyota, Sysmex, Mitsui Fudosan

CASCADE - As expected, with many more of the larger listed companies reporting, our three Scores are falling in unison and at the fastest rate...

Campbell Gunn

Merger Arb Mondays (15 Jun) - Skyworth, Changhong Jiahua, Con Aero, JSB, Nippon Dry, Steadfast

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, NZ, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia,...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (14 Jun) - Con Aero, ENN, Nippon Dry Chem, Nippon Sheet, OOh!Media, Steadfast

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, NZ, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia,...

Arun George

Nippon Dry-Chemical (1909 JP): Neuberger Starts an Activist Campaign, but Success Is Uncertain

While Neuberger’s criticisms have merit, the Board could credibly refute most of them. The shares are marginally trading through terms, but the...

Arun George

[Japan Event] Carlyle and ALSOK Compete Then Join To Take Over NDC (1909) - ¥3,730

Neuberger Berman has sent a letter to the Board/Spec Committee of Nippon Dry Chem (1909 JP) (attached below). They say the biz plan underlying the...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)