Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.</li>
<li>We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).</li>
<li>With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target</li>
</ul>


We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target


Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on TENCENT, MAXSCEND MICROELECTRONICS, MEITUAN, XIAOMI, JD.COM, JIANGSU ETERN, NCI, CHINA LIFE.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on TENCENT, MAXSCEND MICROELECTRONICS, MEITUAN, XIAOMI, JD.COM, JIANGSU ETERN, NCI, CHINA LIFE.


MS-China Index Earning Revision (Jul): TENCENT, MAXSCEND MICROELECTRONICS, MEITUAN, XIAOMI, JD.COM

Index Rebalance

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We review the HSLMI universe for potential candidates for the upcoming HSI August 2026 review.</li>
<li>Three stocks stand out as ADD candidates this cycle, one of them high conviction.</li>
<li>We also highlight substantial FF and weight changes for CATL.</li>
</ul>


We review the HSLMI universe for potential candidates for the upcoming HSI August 2026 review.
Three stocks stand out as ADD candidates this cycle, one of them high conviction.
We also highlight substantial FF and weight changes for CATL.


Equity Capital Markets

Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Stock / Equity Capital Markets

Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Stock (605376 CH)

<ul>
<li>Boqian New Materials, a high-end electronic metal powders manufacturer, is seeking an A+H listing. GTJA is the sole sponsor.</li>
<li>We look at the company's core segments: nickel-based powders for MLCC electrodes and copper-based powders for PV metallization.</li>
<li>We discussed our preliminary thoughts on the company's valuation based on A-H premium.</li>
</ul>


Boqian New Materials, a high-end electronic metal powders manufacturer, is seeking an A+H listing. GTJA is the sole sponsor.
We look at the company's core segments: nickel-based powders for MLCC electrodes and copper-based powders for PV metallization.
We discussed our preliminary thoughts on the company's valuation based on A-H premium.


Boqian New Materials (博迁新材) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Exposure in Aluminium stocks has moved higher over the last 12-months.  Just over a fifth of the EM funds in our analysis now have exposure to the Aluminium industry group, up from 7.7% in June of last year.  However, at just 0.12% average weight, exposure levels are far from convincing.Ten stocks make up the Emerging Markets Aluminium Industry group, led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aluminum-corporation-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6884:1" rel="noopener">Aluminum Corporation Of China (2600 HK)</a>, held by 10.8% and 5.2% of managers respectively.The image of Aluminium from an ESG perspective doesn't appear to be a major issue and hasn't deterred the ESG focused strategies in our analysis from investing.  In fact, 26.3% of ESG funds have exposure to the Aluminium Industry compared to 19% of non-ESG funds.But we can't escape the fact that across all of the stocks in the Aluminium Industry group, not one has managed to attract an investment of above 2% in any of the 250 active GEM funds in our analysis.  At this stage, active EM managers are only 'dipping their toes in', rather than risking a high conviction allocation.

Exposure in Aluminium stocks has moved higher over the last 12-months.  Just over a fifth of the EM funds in our analysis now have exposure to the Aluminium industry group, up from 7.7% in June of last year.  However, at just 0.12% average weight, exposure levels are far from convincing.Ten stocks make up the Emerging Markets Aluminium Industry group, led by China Hongqiao (1378 HK) and Aluminum Corporation Of China (2600 HK), held by 10.8% and 5.2% of managers respectively.The image of Aluminium from an ESG perspective doesn't appear to be a major issue and hasn't deterred the ESG focused strategies in our analysis from investing.  In fact, 26.3% of ESG funds have exposure to the Aluminium Industry compared to 19% of non-ESG funds.But we can't escape the fact that across all of the stocks in the Aluminium Industry group, not one has managed to attract an investment of above 2% in any of the 250 active GEM funds in our analysis.  At this stage, active EM managers are only 'dipping their toes in', rather than risking a high conviction allocation.

China

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited manufactures aluminum products. The Company offers aluminum ores, aluminum, bauxite, coal, and other products. Aluminum of China serves coal mining, logistics, and other businesses.

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Aluminum of China (601600 CH)

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

With yesterday's break above 3910 in $SPX we see a tradable rally, but 4100-4165 is likely to cap upside; reduce risk into that area. Buy ideas...

Vermilion Research

MS-China Index Earning Revision (Jul): TENCENT, MAXSCEND MICROELECTRONICS, MEITUAN, XIAOMI, JD.COM

We analyzed MS-China's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in TENCENT, MAXSCEND MICROELECTRONICS, MEITUAN, XIAOMI, JD.COM,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI Sep 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We reviewed the HSLMI candidates for the upcoming HSI index review and expect three possible ADDs and no DELETE. We also highlight FF changes in CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Boqian New Materials (博迁新材) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Boqian New Materials is seeking an A+H listing. In this note, we look at the company's business, its industry context and provide our early thought...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EM Aluminium: Early Stage Move

Aluminium exposure has moved higher over the last 12-months. Just over a fifth of the EM funds in our analysis now have exposure to the Aluminium...

Steven Holden

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