APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Chuangxin Industries / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chuangxin-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45636:1" rel="noopener">Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK)</a> raised around US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK) raised around US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Chuangxin Industries IPO Trading: Good Insti Sub Rates but Peers Have Traded Down

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite an overwhelming response and a 26-30% surge in the grey market, at 8.3x FY26 PER,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chuangxin-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45636:1" rel="noopener">Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)</a>'s IPO price does not generate much excitement for us. </li>
<li>Heavy reliance on connected transactions with the controlling shareholder, pressure on margins in the future, and a highly leveraged balance sheet are concerns. </li>
<li>We do not think it justifies trading at a premium to peers, hence, limited upside from now. The small free float, however, will increase the share price volatility.</li>
</ul>


Despite an overwhelming response and a 26-30% surge in the grey market, at 8.3x FY26 PER,  Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)'s IPO price does not generate much excitement for us. 
Heavy reliance on connected transactions with the controlling shareholder, pressure on margins in the future, and a highly leveraged balance sheet are concerns. 
We do not think it justifies trading at a premium to peers, hence, limited upside from now. The small free float, however, will increase the share price volatility.


Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK): It Doesn't Pay to Be Aggressive

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a> is looking to raise around US$1.2bn from a primary placement.</li>
<li>This represents 9.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 2.9% of total shares outstanding.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise around US$1.2bn from a primary placement.
This represents 9.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 2.9% of total shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


China Hongqiao Placement: Good Valuation but Likely Opportunistic, on the Back of Chuangxin Listing

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's performance was -2.01% in October versus returns of -0.81 for the benchmark and -3.53 to  -8.62 for Hong Kong indexes.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has captured most of the market gains and minimized drawdowns since inception. The portfolio's outperformance is more than 40% since inception in October 2024.</li>
<li>At month-end, we reduced materials and healthcare exposure.  We had already reduced the tech exposure earlier in the month.  We established positions in the utility, textile, and battery sectors.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's performance was -2.01% in October versus returns of -0.81 for the benchmark and -3.53 to  -8.62 for Hong Kong indexes.
The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has captured most of the market gains and minimized drawdowns since inception. The portfolio's outperformance is more than 40% since inception in October 2024.
At month-end, we reduced materials and healthcare exposure.  We had already reduced the tech exposure earlier in the month.  We established positions in the utility, textile, and battery sectors.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech / Index Rebalance

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, there are 6 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 4 current constituents in direct deletion zone. However, as usual, there will be discretion used.</li>
<li>4 changes result in a one-way turnover of 4%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 17bn (US$2.4bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The index committee has used discretion in selecting the index adds and deletes and that could continue to be the case at this review too.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, there are 6 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 4 current constituents in direct deletion zone. However, as usual, there will be discretion used.
4 changes result in a one-way turnover of 4%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 17bn (US$2.4bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
The index committee has used discretion in selecting the index adds and deletes and that could continue to be the case at this review too.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Potential Changes in December

China

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, also known as Chalco, is a producer of alumina and primary aluminum in China. The Company refines bauxite into alumina and smelts alumina to produce primary aluminum.

Price Gauge
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Aluminum Corporation Of China (2600 HK)

Chuangxin Industries IPO Trading: Good Insti Sub Rates but Peers Have Traded Down

Chuangxin Industries raises US$700m in Hong Kong IPO, focusing on alumina refining and aluminum smelting in the industry chain. Analysis on demand...

Nicholas Tan

Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK): It Doesn't Pay to Be Aggressive

Chuangxin's IPO fails to excite despite a grey market surge, with concerns over connected transactions, margin pressure, and leverage. Limited...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Hongqiao Placement: Good Valuation but Likely Opportunistic, on the Back of Chuangxin Listing

China Hongqiao is looking to raise around US$1.2bn from a primary placement. In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal...

Nicholas Tan

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

We made mid-month adjustments to the portfolio due to sudden re-escalation of tensions with the US & concurrent sectoral de-rating. Several...

David Mudd

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Potential Changes in December

There could be 4 changes for the index in Dec. The index committee has used discretion in the past and that is likely to continue. One-way turnover...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chuangxin Industries IPO Trading: Good Insti Sub Rates but Peers Have Traded Down

​Chuangxin Industries raises US$700m in Hong Kong IPO, focusing on alumina refining and aluminum smelting in the industry chain. Analysis on demand...

Nicholas Tan

Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK): It Doesn't Pay to Be Aggressive

​Chuangxin's IPO fails to excite despite a grey market surge, with concerns over connected transactions, margin pressure, and leverage. Limited...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Hongqiao Placement: Good Valuation but Likely Opportunistic, on the Back of Chuangxin Listing

China Hongqiao is looking to raise around US$1.2bn from a primary placement. In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal...

Nicholas Tan

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (October 2025)

We made mid-month adjustments to the portfolio due to sudden re-escalation of tensions with the US & concurrent sectoral de-rating. Several...

David Mudd

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Potential Changes in December

There could be 4 changes for the index in Dec. The index committee has used discretion in the past and that is likely to continue. One-way turnover...

Brian Freitas

Chuangxin Industries raises US$700m in Hong Kong IPO, focusing on alumina refining and aluminum smelting in the industry chain. Analysis on demand...

Chuangxin's IPO fails to excite despite a grey market surge, with concerns over connected transactions, margin pressure, and leverage. Limited...