Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 21 - July 25.</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (2330 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener"> KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 21 - July 25.

OVERSOLD: Meta (META US) , HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) , NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) 

OVERBOUGHT: Alphabet (GOOG US) , Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) , NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Taiwan Semiconductor (2330 TT) , CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) ,  KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 21 – July 25

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We remain structurally bullish on AI infrastructure investment supported by sustained momentum in compute-intensive investments.</li><li>Major hyperscalers’ capex continue to grow, at 43% YoY for overseas Big Four (MSFT/AMZN/GOOG/META) and 44% YoY for domestic Big Three (Alibaba/Tencent/Baidu) in 2025, per Bloomberg consensus estimates.</li><li>Recent earnings results across the supply chain confirms AI-related spend. TSMC’s (TSMC US, NR) 1H25 revenue was NT$ 1,773bn, up 40% YoY. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We remain structurally bullish on AI infrastructure investment supported by sustained momentum in compute-intensive investments.Major hyperscalers’ capex continue to grow, at 43% YoY for overseas Big Four (MSFT/AMZN/GOOG/META) and 44% YoY for domestic Big Three (Alibaba/Tencent/Baidu) in 2025, per Bloomberg consensus estimates.Recent earnings results across the supply chain confirms AI-related spend. TSMC’s (TSMC US, NR) 1H25 revenue was NT$ 1,773bn, up 40% YoY. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - Thematic Investing and Megatrends: 1H25 AI Demand Check

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 14 - July 19.</li>
<li>The most noticeable highlights are: all US markets and stocks we cover sold off last week, apart from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com (AMZN US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> </li>
<li>In Asia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> is very oversold, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> is also oversold. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> start to be overbought.</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 14 - July 19.
The most noticeable highlights are: all US markets and stocks we cover sold off last week, apart from Amazon.com (AMZN US) , Alphabet (GOOG US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) 
In Asia, BYD (1211 HK) is very oversold, and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is also oversold. Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) start to be overbought.


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.</li>
<li>Since our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-markets-tactical-outlook-week-of-june-30-july-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week</a>, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. </li>
<li>Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.
</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for some key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 7 - July 11.
Since our Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook published last week, US markets became even more overbought by the end of the week, while some Asian  stocks started to pull back. 
Stocks are falling on Monday, the Trump administration is threatening imposing 25% tariffs on a number of nations (including Japan and South Korea), global markets may close the week down.



Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Even if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> ceases marketing 18A to new customers, the company will still fulfill existing foundry commitments.</li>
<li>In response to the 18A dilemma, Intel’s initial solution is to redirect resources toward the development of 14A, a next-generation process where Intel hopes to gain an edge over TSMC.</li>
<li>In addition to the strategic realignment of the foundry business, Tan’s broader efforts include refreshing Intel’s leadership team.</li>
</ul>


Even if Intel Corp (INTC US) ceases marketing 18A to new customers, the company will still fulfill existing foundry commitments.
In response to the 18A dilemma, Intel’s initial solution is to redirect resources toward the development of 14A, a next-generation process where Intel hopes to gain an edge over TSMC.
In addition to the strategic realignment of the foundry business, Tan’s broader efforts include refreshing Intel’s leadership team.


Intel (INTC.US): Abandon Promoting 18A to Fully Focus on 14A

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Amazon (AMZN US)

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 21 – July 25

Our tactical models show Meta, NIFTY and HDFC Bank are oversold, while Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, CSI 300 Index, and KOSPI 200...

Nico Rosti

Semiconductors - Thematic Investing and Megatrends: 1H25 AI Demand Check

We remain structurally bullish on AI infrastructure investment supported by sustained momentum in compute-intensive investments.

CMB International

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Our Weekly Tactical Outlook: US sold-off last week, except for Amazon, Alphabet, and NVIDIA (overbought). BYD and Fast Retailing are oversold in...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

Intel (INTC.US): Abandon Promoting 18A to Fully Focus on 14A

Intel Corp will continue fulfilling foundry commitments despite ceasing marketing of 18A, focusing on developing 14A to compete with TSMC and...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 21 – July 25

Our tactical models show Meta, NIFTY and HDFC Bank are oversold, while Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, CSI 300 Index, and KOSPI 200...

Nico Rosti

Semiconductors - Thematic Investing and Megatrends: 1H25 AI Demand Check

We remain structurally bullish on AI infrastructure investment supported by sustained momentum in compute-intensive investments.

CMB International

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 14 – July 19

Our Weekly Tactical Outlook: US sold-off last week, except for Amazon, Alphabet, and NVIDIA (overbought). BYD and Fast Retailing are oversold in...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets WEEKLY Tactical Outlook: July 7 to July 11

​Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Nico Rosti

Intel (INTC.US): Abandon Promoting 18A to Fully Focus on 14A

​Intel Corp will continue fulfilling foundry commitments despite ceasing marketing of 18A, focusing on developing 14A to compete with TSMC and...

Patrick Liao

Global markets may close the week down as US markets became very overbought and stocks started to pull back globally, while the Trump...

Intel Corp will continue fulfilling foundry commitments despite ceasing marketing of 18A, focusing on developing 14A to compete with TSMC and...