Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Amazon.com reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting both progress and challenges across its business segments.</li><li>Total revenue reached $180.2 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 12% when adjusting for foreign exchange impacts.</li><li>Operating income was reported at $17.4 billion, however, this was impacted by two significant expenses: a $2.5 billion FTC settlement and $1.8 billion in estimated severance costs.</li></ul>

Amazon.com reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting both progress and challenges across its business segments.Total revenue reached $180.2 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 12% when adjusting for foreign exchange impacts.Operating income was reported at $17.4 billion, however, this was impacted by two significant expenses: a $2.5 billion FTC settlement and $1.8 billion in estimated severance costs.

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon’s Robot Army Hits 1 Million—Is This the Future of Fast Delivery?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT) revenues accelerating from 1Q25. Total revenues in 2025 ~$1.15tn, up 17% YoY.</li>
<li>Cloud (AWS, GOOG, MSFT) revenues accelerating. 2025 Cloud revenues in 2025 ~$375bn, up 25% YoY.</li>
<li>2025 Capex up 63% YoY to $376bn. 2026 Capex will increase by ~46% YoY to reach ~$550bn. I estimate ~30% increase in 2027 to reach $715bn.</li>
</ul>


Hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT) revenues accelerating from 1Q25. Total revenues in 2025 ~$1.15tn, up 17% YoY.
Cloud (AWS, GOOG, MSFT) revenues accelerating. 2025 Cloud revenues in 2025 ~$375bn, up 25% YoY.
2025 Capex up 63% YoY to $376bn. 2026 Capex will increase by ~46% YoY to reach ~$550bn. I estimate ~30% increase in 2027 to reach $715bn.


Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

<ul>
<li>3Q25 revenue up 13% YoY, AWS up 20%, Operating Profit would have increased by 25% YoY but 2 one-time charges (FTC and headcount) bring OP flat YoY.</li>
<li>2025 Capex revised up from $100bn to 125bn. If Data Center capacity doubles to 2027, that means $205bn Capex in 2027. AWS revenues will double to ~$270bn? Probably yes.</li>
<li>Next 2 years revenue growth and margins expansion are an AWS story. Valuations are average at 31x forward EPS. Buy more.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 revenue up 13% YoY, AWS up 20%, Operating Profit would have increased by 25% YoY but 2 one-time charges (FTC and headcount) bring OP flat YoY.
2025 Capex revised up from $100bn to 125bn. If Data Center capacity doubles to 2027, that means $205bn Capex in 2027. AWS revenues will double to ~$270bn? Probably yes.
Next 2 years revenue growth and margins expansion are an AWS story. Valuations are average at 31x forward EPS. Buy more.


AMZN 3Q25: Very Good 3Q as AWS Revenue Accelerates to 20% YoY. AWS Data Center Capacity to Double

<ul><li>Amazon’s long-term AI ambitions are being tested as its $8 billion bet on Anthropic faces a potential turning point.</li><li>Recent reports reveal that Anthropic, the AI startup behind the Claude language model and currently enjoying a $5 billion annualized revenue run rate, is in talks with Alphabet’s Google for a cloud-computing deal potentially worth tens of billions of dollars.</li><li>This shift, if finalized, could grant Anthropic access to Google’s advanced AI chips, a key competitive asset as workloads grow increasingly complex.</li></ul>

Amazon’s long-term AI ambitions are being tested as its $8 billion bet on Anthropic faces a potential turning point.Recent reports reveal that Anthropic, the AI startup behind the Claude language model and currently enjoying a $5 billion annualized revenue run rate, is in talks with Alphabet’s Google for a cloud-computing deal potentially worth tens of billions of dollars.This shift, if finalized, could grant Anthropic access to Google’s advanced AI chips, a key competitive asset as workloads grow increasingly complex.

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon’s Quiet Crisis: What Anthropic’s Defection Could Mean for AWS

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Amazon is navigating a dynamic tech landscape, leveraging its strong position in AI infrastructure and cloud services to drive long-term value creation and maintain a premium valuation in the market.</li>
<li>The company is making strategic investments in AI chips and foundational AI companies like Anthropic, aiming to optimize efficiency and scalability in its AWS segment.</li>
<li>Despite a current range-bound stock price, Amazon's financial metrics and company culture approach underscore its commitment to growth and competitive advantage in the evolving tech ecosystem.</li>
</ul>


Amazon is navigating a dynamic tech landscape, leveraging its strong position in AI infrastructure and cloud services to drive long-term value creation and maintain a premium valuation in the market.
The company is making strategic investments in AI chips and foundational AI companies like Anthropic, aiming to optimize efficiency and scalability in its AWS segment.
Despite a current range-bound stock price, Amazon's financial metrics and company culture approach underscore its commitment to growth and competitive advantage in the evolving tech ecosystem.


Amazon: Still Riding the Tech Volatility Wave

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon’s Robot Army Hits 1 Million—Is This the Future of Fast Delivery?

Amazon.com reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting both progress and challenges across its business...

Baptista Research

Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

Hyperscalers' revenues and cloud revenues are accelerating from 1Q25, Capex set to increase significantly in the coming years.

Nicolas Baratte

AMZN 3Q25: Very Good 3Q as AWS Revenue Accelerates to 20% YoY. AWS Data Center Capacity to Double

Amazon's 3Q25 revenue up 13% YoY, AWS up 20%, but one-time charges keep Operating Profit flat YoY. Focus on AWS growth and margins for next 2...

Nicolas Baratte

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon’s Quiet Crisis: What Anthropic’s Defection Could Mean for AWS

Amazon’s long-term AI ambitions are being tested as its $8 billion bet on Anthropic faces a potential turning point. Recent reports reveal that...

Baptista Research

Amazon: Still Riding the Tech Volatility Wave

Amazon is strategically investing in AI infrastructure to drive long-term value and maintain a competitive edge in the tech landscape. A trade,...

Jay Cameron

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon’s Robot Army Hits 1 Million—Is This the Future of Fast Delivery?

Amazon.com reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting both progress and challenges across its business...

Baptista Research

Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

​Hyperscalers' revenues and cloud revenues are accelerating from 1Q25, Capex set to increase significantly in the coming years.

Nicolas Baratte

AMZN 3Q25: Very Good 3Q as AWS Revenue Accelerates to 20% YoY. AWS Data Center Capacity to Double

​Amazon's 3Q25 revenue up 13% YoY, AWS up 20%, but one-time charges keep Operating Profit flat YoY. Focus on AWS growth and margins for next 2...

Nicolas Baratte

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon’s Quiet Crisis: What Anthropic’s Defection Could Mean for AWS

Amazon’s long-term AI ambitions are being tested as its $8 billion bet on Anthropic faces a potential turning point. Recent reports reveal that...

Baptista Research

Amazon: Still Riding the Tech Volatility Wave

​Amazon is strategically investing in AI infrastructure to drive long-term value and maintain a competitive edge in the tech landscape. A trade,...

Jay Cameron

Hyperscalers' revenues and cloud revenues are accelerating from 1Q25, Capex set to increase significantly in the coming years.

Amazon's 3Q25 revenue up 13% YoY, AWS up 20%, but one-time charges keep Operating Profit flat YoY. Focus on AWS growth and margins for next 2...

Amazon is strategically investing in AI infrastructure to drive long-term value and maintain a competitive edge in the tech landscape. A trade,...