Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Now that Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon all reported their quarters, we now have better context to how their quarters went.</li><li>So, while I will mostly discuss Amazon's earnings in this update, I will briefly touch on some broader themes as well.</li><li>Overall revenue was slightly below the high end of Amazon's guidance.</li></ul>

Now that Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon all reported their quarters, we now have better context to how their quarters went.So, while I will mostly discuss Amazon's earnings in this update, I will briefly touch on some broader themes as well.Overall revenue was slightly below the high end of Amazon's guidance.

<ul><li>1P revenue grew HSD and Amazon’s revenue ex 1P increased by high-teens last quarter.</li><li>Since I continue to rate Amazon retail to be relatively overlooked driver for Amazon, let me start with margin discussions on retail.</li><li>North America’s operating margin bottomed at -2.3% 1Q’22 and has since then increased by more than 800 bps to reach 6.1% in 4Q’23, just shy of the pre-pandemic high of 6.4% in 1Q’19.</li></ul>

1P revenue grew HSD and Amazon’s revenue ex 1P increased by high-teens last quarter.Since I continue to rate Amazon retail to be relatively overlooked driver for Amazon, let me start with margin discussions on retail.North America’s operating margin bottomed at -2.3% 1Q’22 and has since then increased by more than 800 bps to reach 6.1% in 4Q’23, just shy of the pre-pandemic high of 6.4% in 1Q’19.

<ul><li>3P, subscription, and AWS grew by mid to high teen while ad segment increased by 20%+</li><li>The mix-shift from product to services in Amazon continues as services mix increased from ~40% in 2018 to ~60% in 2023.</li><li>Let’s start more segment level discussion with AWS.</li></ul>

3P, subscription, and AWS grew by mid to high teen while ad segment increased by 20%+The mix-shift from product to services in Amazon continues as services mix increased from ~40% in 2018 to ~60% in 2023.Let’s start more segment level discussion with AWS.

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

<ul>
<li>Amazon has significantly underperformed the broader equity market, in spite of the recent rally.</li>
<li>The narrative for generative AI is strong, but the share price is currently driven by other factors.</li>
<li>Margin improvements are being priced-in, which significantly limits any potential upside, without monetary conditions becoming supportive.</li>
</ul>


Amazon has significantly underperformed the broader equity market, in spite of the recent rally.
The narrative for generative AI is strong, but the share price is currently driven by other factors.
Margin improvements are being priced-in, which significantly limits any potential upside, without monetary conditions becoming supportive.


Amazon: Monetary Conditions Are In The Driver's Seat And Higher Margins Are Already Priced-In

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009?</li><li>The number that got the highest votes was ~80% even though I mentioned the most recent number was ~68%.</li><li>I asked this question a couple of friends in real life too and they too picked the ~80% number.</li></ul>

During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009?The number that got the highest votes was ~80% even though I mentioned the most recent number was ~68%.I asked this question a couple of friends in real life too and they too picked the ~80% number.

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

Amazon 1Q'24 Update

Now that Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon all reported their quarters, we now have better context to how their quarters went.

MBI Deep Dives

Amazon 4Q'23 Update

North America’s operating margin bottomed at -2.3% 1Q’22 and has since then increased by more than 800 bps to reach 6.1% in 4Q’23, just shy of the...

MBI Deep Dives

Amazon 2Q'23 Earnings Update

3P, subscription, and AWS grew by mid to high teen while ad segment increased by 20%+ The mix-shift from product to services in Amazon continues

MBI Deep Dives

Amazon: Monetary Conditions Are In The Driver's Seat And Higher Margins Are Already Priced-In

Amazon has significantly underperformed the broader equity market, in spite of the recent rally. The narrative for generative AI is strong, but the...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Meta's Moat

During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009? The number that got the highest votes...

MBI Deep Dives