Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-regulator-probing-some-adani-offshore-deals-possible-rule-violations-2023-04-01/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">probing offshore deals</a> for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.</li>
<li>GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." </li>
<li>Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. </li>
</ul>


The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is probing offshore deals for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.
GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." 
Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. 


GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The synergies with the group resulted in a cost reduction of 9% on a per tonne basis sequentially and more cost optimization is expected which shall aid in further margin enhancement.</li><li>Business initiatives are expected to further bring down the operating costs, reduce the clinker factor, reduce logistics costs, improve the sale of blended cement and, expand the EBITDA margin.</li><li>We foresee the company’s EBITDA margins to improve from the current 15% to 22-23% in FY24E/25E.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The synergies with the group resulted in a cost reduction of 9% on a per tonne basis sequentially and more cost optimization is expected which shall aid in further margin enhancement.Business initiatives are expected to further bring down the operating costs, reduce the clinker factor, reduce logistics costs, improve the sale of blended cement and, expand the EBITDA margin.We foresee the company’s EBITDA margins to improve from the current 15% to 22-23% in FY24E/25E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ambuja Cements Limited - Robust Operating Performance

Mid-Small Cap specialist | Equities | India, Nurture Capital Advisory

Nurture Capital Advisory

Mid-Small Cap specialist | Equities | India

Buyside Outfit and Advisory Services

We are a Buyside outfit and also offer Advisory services. Most notes published here are written for our consumption. These notes offer readers a perspective of our approach to scanning sectors and distilling ideas to constructing a bottom-up Equity portfolio. Combining top down and bottom-up approaches to identifying themes/ value stocks at inflexion Sector agnostic | Value oriented - Inflexion approach | Bottom-Up Ideas Biased towards Sustainability, ESG Team is Wall Street Journal, ET Now - Star mine Lipper, Asia money rated.

<ul>
<li>Cement sector is witnessing a margin recovery and valuations are reasonable. </li>
<li>Ambuja Cements, the second largest in the sector provides a tactical opportunity for a valuation pop. </li>
<li>Avoid | as any inclusion amounts to adding to the risk rather than to the return of the portfolio. </li>
</ul>


Cement sector is witnessing a margin recovery and valuations are reasonable. 
Ambuja Cements, the second largest in the sector provides a tactical opportunity for a valuation pop. 
Avoid | as any inclusion amounts to adding to the risk rather than to the return of the portfolio. 


Ambuja Cements - Quick Insight on Valuation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With only 5 trading days to go in the review period, we see no constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pidilite-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20573:1" rel="noopener">Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN)</a> is the highest ranked non-index constituent, but its free float market cap does not exceed 1.5x the free-float market cap of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a>. </li>
<li>We do not expect LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) to be added to the index in March post the merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/larsen-toubro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2499:1" rel="noopener">Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7297:1" rel="noopener">Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


With only 5 trading days to go in the review period, we see no constituent changes to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) at the March rebalance.

Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) is the highest ranked non-index constituent, but its free float market cap does not exceed 1.5x the free-float market cap of Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN). 
We do not expect LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) to be added to the index in March post the merger between Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN) and Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN). 


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes Likely in March

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> ("ADL") on Tuesday announced a Board Meeting for Friday to consider capital raising options. Multiple media sources suggest a record Indian Follow-on Public Offering of INR200bn.</li>
<li>The company has bid for/bought multiple assets recently, and proposed investments plan of up to US$150bn in 10yrs in renewables, cement, airports, healthcare to aim at a US$1trln valuation.</li>
<li>This will get complicated, interesting, and is not necessarily going to come out well.</li>
</ul>



Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) ("ADL") on Tuesday announced a Board Meeting for Friday to consider capital raising options. Multiple media sources suggest a record Indian Follow-on Public Offering of INR200bn.
The company has bid for/bought multiple assets recently, and proposed investments plan of up to US$150bn in 10yrs in renewables, cement, airports, healthcare to aim at a US$1trln valuation.
This will get complicated, interesting, and is not necessarily going to come out well.


Adani Enterprises - A Record Follow-On Public Offering May Be in the Works

India

Ambuja Cements Limited is an Indian cement producing company that manufactures and markets cement, clinker, and related products for domestic and export markets. Its product portfolio includes ordinary portland cement, portland pozzolana cement, and ready-mix concrete. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 1983.

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Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN)

GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

This is an update on the Adani Names where GQG Partners purchased a US$1.8bn stake from the Promoters themselves. They are up 25% in a month. Which...

Travis Lundy

Ambuja Cements Limited - Robust Operating Performance

The synergies with the group resulted in a cost reduction of 9% on a per tonne basis sequentially and more cost optimization is expected which...

Axis Direct

Ambuja Cements - Quick Insight on Valuation

Ambuja Cements, the second largest in the sector provides a tactical opportunity for a valuation pop. Avoid as it amplifies risk rather than adding...

Nurture Capital Advisory

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes Likely in March

We do not expect any changes in March since Pidilite's average FFMC does not exceed 1.5x the FFMC for BPCL. There will be an adhoc change prior to...

Brian Freitas

Adani Enterprises - A Record Follow-On Public Offering May Be in the Works

ADANI ENTERPRISES has a board meeting Friday to discuss/approve a capital raise. The stock is up 25x+ in 3yrs and trades at 20x book and 300x PER...

Travis Lundy

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