Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

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Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ambuja Cements (ACEM) has raised its FY28 capacity target to 155 million tonnes per annum and secured the acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates’ (JAL) cement business. 
</li>
<li>This aggressive scale-up, underpinned by a target cost reduction of INR 550/t and a green power push, is expected to drive EBITDA to INR 15000/t over FY26-28E. 
</li>
<li>ACEM’s integrated strategy of inorganic growth and operational efficiency suggests a strong re-rating potential, justifying a deeper review of core fundamentals. 
</li>
</ul>


Ambuja Cements (ACEM) has raised its FY28 capacity target to 155 million tonnes per annum and secured the acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates’ (JAL) cement business. 

This aggressive scale-up, underpinned by a target cost reduction of INR 550/t and a green power push, is expected to drive EBITDA to INR 15000/t over FY26-28E. 

ACEM’s integrated strategy of inorganic growth and operational efficiency suggests a strong re-rating potential, justifying a deeper review of core fundamentals. 



The Beat Ideas: Ambuja Cements From Consolidation to Cost Leadership - Unpacking the 155 MTPA Plan

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Capacity Addition to Support Volume and Revenue Growth: The company is expanding capacity from 107 MTPA (including 8.5 MTPA from Orient Cement) to 118 MTPA by FY26.</li><li>It now targets 155 MTPA by FY28 (earlier 140 MTPA), supported by incremental expansion and debottlenecking initiatives.</li><li>With current utilization at 65%, there remains meaningful upside potential as demand strengthens. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capacity Addition to Support Volume and Revenue Growth: The company is expanding capacity from 107 MTPA (including 8.5 MTPA from Orient Cement) to 118 MTPA by FY26.It now targets 155 MTPA by FY28 (earlier 140 MTPA), supported by incremental expansion and debottlenecking initiatives.With current utilization at 65%, there remains meaningful upside potential as demand strengthens. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ambuja Cements Ltd - Beat Estimates On Lower Cost; Retain BUY

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>
 Ambuja Cement has crossed the 100 MTPA capacity mark and is executing a roadmap for 140 MTPA by FY28 while targeting a INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA by the same year.</li>
<li>The integration of multiple recent acquisitions, including Orient, Sanghi, and Penna, is crucial; Q2FY26 results will offer the first look into how the new consolidated entity handles initial integration costs.</li>
<li>While Q1 FY26 set a high baseline, investors should  anticipate sequential dip in Q2 margins, viewing it as a short-term integration blip against a decade-defining capacity and cost rationalisation strategy.</li>
</ul>



 Ambuja Cement has crossed the 100 MTPA capacity mark and is executing a roadmap for 140 MTPA by FY28 while targeting a INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA by the same year.
The integration of multiple recent acquisitions, including Orient, Sanghi, and Penna, is crucial; Q2FY26 results will offer the first look into how the new consolidated entity handles initial integration costs.
While Q1 FY26 set a high baseline, investors should  anticipate sequential dip in Q2 margins, viewing it as a short-term integration blip against a decade-defining capacity and cost rationalisation strategy.


Ambuja Cement Q2 Preview: Seasonal Weakness or a Strategic Pause in the 140 MTPA Road?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-regulator-probing-some-adani-offshore-deals-possible-rule-violations-2023-04-01/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">probing offshore deals</a> for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.</li>
<li>GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." </li>
<li>Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. </li>
</ul>


The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is probing offshore deals for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.
GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." 
Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. 


GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

<ul><li>A. Capacity Expansion to Drive Volume and Revenue Growth: The company is increasing its capacity from 104 MTPA (including 8.5 MTPA from Orient Cement) to 118 MTPA by FY26, with a further target of 140 MTPA by FY28 through additional expansion.</li><li>This capacity growth is expected to support sustained momentum, with volume and revenue projected to grow at 11% and 10% CAGR over FY24–FY27E.</li><li>B. EBITDA Margins to Improve to 20-21% in FY27E: Efficiency gains have cut costs by Rs 150 per tonne.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

A. Capacity Expansion to Drive Volume and Revenue Growth: The company is increasing its capacity from 104 MTPA (including 8.5 MTPA from Orient Cement) to 118 MTPA by FY26, with a further target of 140 MTPA by FY28 through additional expansion.This capacity growth is expected to support sustained momentum, with volume and revenue projected to grow at 11% and 10% CAGR over FY24–FY27E.B. EBITDA Margins to Improve to 20-21% in FY27E: Efficiency gains have cut costs by Rs 150 per tonne.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pick of the Week: Ambuja Cements Ltd - 19th July, 2025

India

Ambuja Cements Limited manufactures cement in India. The Company owns specially designed ships and terminals for bulk transportation of its products. Ambuja Cement sells most of its products domestically, but also has a subsidiary that markets the Group's items in Sri Lanka.

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Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN)

The Beat Ideas: Ambuja Cements From Consolidation to Cost Leadership - Unpacking the 155 MTPA Plan

Ambuja Cements raises capacity target to 155 million tonnes, acquires Jaiprakash Associates' cement business, aims for cost reduction and green...

Nimish Maheshwari

Ambuja Cements Ltd - Beat Estimates On Lower Cost; Retain BUY

Capacity Addition to Support Volume and Revenue Growth: The company is expanding capacity from 107 MTPA (including 8.5 MTPA from Orient Cement) to...

Axis Direct

Ambuja Cement Q2 Preview: Seasonal Weakness or a Strategic Pause in the 140 MTPA Road?

Ambuja Cement aims for 140 MTPA capacity by FY28 with INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA target, focusing on integrating recent acquisitions and managing...

Sudarshan Bhandari

GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

This is an update on the Adani Names where GQG Partners purchased a US$1.8bn stake from the Promoters themselves. They are up 25% in a month. Which...

Travis Lundy

Pick of the Week: Ambuja Cements Ltd - 19th July, 2025

The company is increasing its capacity from 104 MTPA (including 8.5 MTPA from Orient Cement) to 118 MTPA by FY26, with a further target of 140 MTPA...

Axis Direct

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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The Beat Ideas: Ambuja Cements From Consolidation to Cost Leadership - Unpacking the 155 MTPA Plan

​Ambuja Cements raises capacity target to 155 million tonnes, acquires Jaiprakash Associates' cement business, aims for cost reduction and green...

Nimish Maheshwari

Ambuja Cements Ltd - Beat Estimates On Lower Cost; Retain BUY

Capacity Addition to Support Volume and Revenue Growth: The company is expanding capacity from 107 MTPA (including 8.5 MTPA from Orient Cement) to...

Axis Direct

Ambuja Cement Q2 Preview: Seasonal Weakness or a Strategic Pause in the 140 MTPA Road?

​Ambuja Cement aims for 140 MTPA capacity by FY28 with INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA target, focusing on integrating recent acquisitions and managing...

Sudarshan Bhandari

GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

This is an update on the Adani Names where GQG Partners purchased a US$1.8bn stake from the Promoters themselves. They are up 25% in a month. Which...

Travis Lundy

Pick of the Week: Ambuja Cements Ltd - 19th July, 2025

The company is increasing its capacity from 104 MTPA (including 8.5 MTPA from Orient Cement) to 118 MTPA by FY26, with a further target of 140 MTPA...

Axis Direct

Ambuja Cements raises capacity target to 155 million tonnes, acquires Jaiprakash Associates' cement business, aims for cost reduction and green...

Ambuja Cement aims for 140 MTPA capacity by FY28 with INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA target, focusing on integrating recent acquisitions and managing...