Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ambuja Cements (ACEM) has raised its FY28 capacity target to 155 million tonnes per annum and secured the acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates’ (JAL) cement business. 
</li>
<li>This aggressive scale-up, underpinned by a target cost reduction of INR 550/t and a green power push, is expected to drive EBITDA to INR 15000/t over FY26-28E. 
</li>
<li>ACEM’s integrated strategy of inorganic growth and operational efficiency suggests a strong re-rating potential, justifying a deeper review of core fundamentals. 
</li>
</ul>


Ambuja Cements (ACEM) has raised its FY28 capacity target to 155 million tonnes per annum and secured the acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates’ (JAL) cement business. 

This aggressive scale-up, underpinned by a target cost reduction of INR 550/t and a green power push, is expected to drive EBITDA to INR 15000/t over FY26-28E. 

ACEM’s integrated strategy of inorganic growth and operational efficiency suggests a strong re-rating potential, justifying a deeper review of core fundamentals. 



The Beat Ideas: Ambuja Cements From Consolidation to Cost Leadership - Unpacking the 155 MTPA Plan

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>
 Ambuja Cement has crossed the 100 MTPA capacity mark and is executing a roadmap for 140 MTPA by FY28 while targeting a INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA by the same year.</li>
<li>The integration of multiple recent acquisitions, including Orient, Sanghi, and Penna, is crucial; Q2FY26 results will offer the first look into how the new consolidated entity handles initial integration costs.</li>
<li>While Q1 FY26 set a high baseline, investors should  anticipate sequential dip in Q2 margins, viewing it as a short-term integration blip against a decade-defining capacity and cost rationalisation strategy.</li>
</ul>



 Ambuja Cement has crossed the 100 MTPA capacity mark and is executing a roadmap for 140 MTPA by FY28 while targeting a INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA by the same year.
The integration of multiple recent acquisitions, including Orient, Sanghi, and Penna, is crucial; Q2FY26 results will offer the first look into how the new consolidated entity handles initial integration costs.
While Q1 FY26 set a high baseline, investors should  anticipate sequential dip in Q2 margins, viewing it as a short-term integration blip against a decade-defining capacity and cost rationalisation strategy.


Ambuja Cement Q2 Preview: Seasonal Weakness or a Strategic Pause in the 140 MTPA Road?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-regulator-probing-some-adani-offshore-deals-possible-rule-violations-2023-04-01/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">probing offshore deals</a> for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.</li>
<li>GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." </li>
<li>Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. </li>
</ul>


The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is probing offshore deals for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.
GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." 
Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. 


GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ambuja-cements-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14745:1" rel="noopener">Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN)</a>, established in 1983 by traders Narotam Sekhsaria and Suresh Neotia, leveraged strategic foresight to become a premier Indian cement giant within the diversified Adani Group.</li>
<li>In 2022, Adani acquired Ambuja Cement at INR 385/share, valuing it at INR 49,620 crore ($6.4 billion), at EBITDA/ton levels (INR900-INR1,000) similar to the company's current performance.</li>
<li>Ambuja Cement is strategically positioned to achieve a substantial 44% increase in its cement production capacity by FY28, reaching a total of 140 MTPA from the current 97 MTPA.</li>
</ul>



Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN), established in 1983 by traders Narotam Sekhsaria and Suresh Neotia, leveraged strategic foresight to become a premier Indian cement giant within the diversified Adani Group.
In 2022, Adani acquired Ambuja Cement at INR 385/share, valuing it at INR 49,620 crore ($6.4 billion), at EBITDA/ton levels (INR900-INR1,000) similar to the company's current performance.
Ambuja Cement is strategically positioned to achieve a substantial 44% increase in its cement production capacity by FY28, reaching a total of 140 MTPA from the current 97 MTPA.


The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements:  Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Pan-India average cement prices have surged by 8% year-on-year to approximately Rs 360 per 50-kg bag, driven by escalating fuel and raw material costs, notably imported petcoke and gypsum.</li>
<li>The price surge indicates a shift in the balance of power within the highly consolidated Indian cement sector.</li>
<li>With input costs rising, companies are demonstrating newfound pricing power, a critical factor for protecting and expanding operating margins in an energy-intensive business.</li>
</ul>


Pan-India average cement prices have surged by 8% year-on-year to approximately Rs 360 per 50-kg bag, driven by escalating fuel and raw material costs, notably imported petcoke and gypsum.
The price surge indicates a shift in the balance of power within the highly consolidated Indian cement sector.
With input costs rising, companies are demonstrating newfound pricing power, a critical factor for protecting and expanding operating margins in an energy-intensive business.


Indian Cement: Cost Headwinds Meet Robust Demand, Forging Pricing Power

India

Ambuja Cements Limited manufactures cement in India. The Company owns specially designed ships and terminals for bulk transportation of its products. Ambuja Cement sells most of its products domestically, but also has a subsidiary that markets the Group's items in Sri Lanka.

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Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN)

The Beat Ideas: Ambuja Cements From Consolidation to Cost Leadership - Unpacking the 155 MTPA Plan

Ambuja Cements raises capacity target to 155 million tonnes, acquires Jaiprakash Associates' cement business, aims for cost reduction and green...

Nimish Maheshwari

Ambuja Cement Q2 Preview: Seasonal Weakness or a Strategic Pause in the 140 MTPA Road?

Ambuja Cement aims for 140 MTPA capacity by FY28 with INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA target, focusing on integrating recent acquisitions and managing...

Sudarshan Bhandari

GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

This is an update on the Adani Names where GQG Partners purchased a US$1.8bn stake from the Promoters themselves. They are up 25% in a month. Which...

Travis Lundy

The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements: Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28

Ambuja Cements, founded by Sekhsaria and Neotia, was acquired by Adani in 2022 for INR 49,620 crore, with plans to increase production capacity to...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Indian Cement: Cost Headwinds Meet Robust Demand, Forging Pricing Power

Pan-India cement prices rise 8% due to increased costs, signaling a shift in industry dynamics and companies' pricing power to protect margins.

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Beat Ideas: Ambuja Cements From Consolidation to Cost Leadership - Unpacking the 155 MTPA Plan

​Ambuja Cements raises capacity target to 155 million tonnes, acquires Jaiprakash Associates' cement business, aims for cost reduction and green...

Nimish Maheshwari

Ambuja Cement Q2 Preview: Seasonal Weakness or a Strategic Pause in the 140 MTPA Road?

​Ambuja Cement aims for 140 MTPA capacity by FY28 with INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA target, focusing on integrating recent acquisitions and managing...

Sudarshan Bhandari

GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

This is an update on the Adani Names where GQG Partners purchased a US$1.8bn stake from the Promoters themselves. They are up 25% in a month. Which...

Travis Lundy

The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements: Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28

​Ambuja Cements, founded by Sekhsaria and Neotia, was acquired by Adani in 2022 for INR 49,620 crore, with plans to increase production capacity to...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Indian Cement: Cost Headwinds Meet Robust Demand, Forging Pricing Power

​Pan-India cement prices rise 8% due to increased costs, signaling a shift in industry dynamics and companies' pricing power to protect margins.

Nimish Maheshwari

Ambuja Cements raises capacity target to 155 million tonnes, acquires Jaiprakash Associates' cement business, aims for cost reduction and green...

Ambuja Cement aims for 140 MTPA capacity by FY28 with INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA target, focusing on integrating recent acquisitions and managing...

Ambuja Cements, founded by Sekhsaria and Neotia, was acquired by Adani in 2022 for INR 49,620 crore, with plans to increase production capacity to...

Pan-India cement prices rise 8% due to increased costs, signaling a shift in industry dynamics and companies' pricing power to protect margins.