Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Quantitative Analysis

Since our Original on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-dividend-forecasting-the-rise-and-fall-of-dividends-across-asian-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43022" rel="noopener">Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies</a>, published on Sep 30 2020, this is our first quarterly update. Our models take into account latest reported fiscal year-end financials to provide updated results. We also discuss companies where there is notable change in our conviction level based on updated data.
At the webinar in October, there was also a request for conducting price movement analysis corresponding to forward dividend growth/cut for our back-test results. This analysis is now available. Our results show a high correlation between price movements and dividend growth/cut, suggesting that users of our models will benefit from guiding their investment decisions based on dividend growth/cut outlook.

Since our Original on Asia Dividend Forecasting | The Rise and Fall of Dividends Across Asian Companies, published on Sep 30 2020, this is our first quarterly update. Our models take into account latest reported fiscal year-end financials to provide updated results. We also discuss companies where there is notable change in our conviction level based on updated data.
At the webinar in October, there was also a request for conducting price movement analysis corresponding to forward dividend growth/cut for our back-test results. This analysis is now available. Our results show a high correlation between price movements and dividend growth/cut, suggesting that users of our models will benefit from guiding their investment decisions based on dividend growth/cut outlook.

Asia Dividend Forecasting | Quarterly Update 1.0

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

In our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-short-term-catalysts-are-not-attractive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43675" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive</a>, we suggested that, while we like SCGP for its longer-term prospects, the company’s short-term performance is likely to be hindered by the sluggish Thai economy. However, we believe these short-term risks are compensated through the company’s valuation, which looks attractive to us even at the higher-end of the indicative IPO price range. We would consider subscribing to the IPO but would not rule out the possibility of a pullback in the short-run under margins pressure.

In our previous note, SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive, we suggested that, while we like SCGP for its longer-term prospects, the company’s short-term performance is likely to be hindered by the sluggish Thai economy. However, we believe these short-term risks are compensated through the company’s valuation, which looks attractive to us even at the higher-end of the indicative IPO price range. We would consider subscribing to the IPO but would not rule out the possibility of a pullback in the short-run under margins pressure.

SCG Packaging IPO: Risks-Rewards Attractive at the Higher-End of the IPO Price Range

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

After shares were <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0922/2020092200236.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">halted</a> lunchtime on the 22 September pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amvig-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4467:1" rel="noopener">Amvig Holdings (2300 HK)</a> last night announced a possible conditional Offer.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amcor-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:674:1" rel="noopener">Amcor Limited (AMC AU)</a>, AMVIG's largest shareholder with 47.63% of shares out, has entered into a SPA with Golden Vison Buyout Fund (GVB). Upon the completion of the SPA, GVB would be obligated to make a mandatory, conditional Offer for all remaining shares.
That Offer Price will be HK$2.18/share, a 51.39% premium to last close.
The SPA has limited conditionality and a long stop date of the 30 September 2020.
The MGO is conditional on 50% acceptance.
This looks done - expect shares to trade tight to terms. The only question is whether sufficient tendering will result in shares being delisted.
As always, more below the fold.

After shares were halted lunchtime on the 22 September pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers, Amvig Holdings (2300 HK) last night announced a possible conditional Offer.
Amcor Limited (AMC AU), AMVIG's largest shareholder with 47.63% of shares out, has entered into a SPA with Golden Vison Buyout Fund (GVB). Upon the completion of the SPA, GVB would be obligated to make a mandatory, conditional Offer for all remaining shares.
That Offer Price will be HK$2.18/share, a 51.39% premium to last close.
The SPA has limited conditionality and a long stop date of the 30 September 2020.
The MGO is conditional on 50% acceptance.
This looks done - expect shares to trade tight to terms. The only question is whether sufficient tendering will result in shares being delisted.
As always, more below the fold.

AMVIG (2300 HK): Smoker's Delight - Possible Conditional Offer

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Forensic Accounting

On 10 Mar 2020 Spruce Point published research on Amcor calling into question the revenue growth prospects of Amcor and the deal rationale for its all stock combination with Bemis. Having reviewed Spruce Point’s research, we disagree with a number of their assertions and assumptions. However, we are not fans of roll-ups in general and the present Amcor is no exception. Details below

On 10 Mar 2020 Spruce Point published research on Amcor calling into question the revenue growth prospects of Amcor and the deal rationale for its all stock combination with Bemis. Having reviewed Spruce Point’s research, we disagree with a number of their assertions and assumptions. However, we are not fans of roll-ups in general and the present Amcor is no exception. Details below

Amcor – Spruce Point’s Methodology Is Unconvincing but That Doesn’t Mean They Will Be Wrong

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In today’s report we reiterate our bullish U.S. investment thesis, recap significant technical levels across indexes, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Technology: Biotech, Mid-Cap, Biotech, Small-Cap, Semiconductors, Large-Cap, and Semiconductors, Mid-Cap..

In today’s report we reiterate our bullish U.S. investment thesis, recap significant technical levels across indexes, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Technology: Biotech, Mid-Cap, Biotech, Small-Cap, Semiconductors, Large-Cap, and Semiconductors, Mid-Cap..

MSCI ACWI, STOXX 600 Breaking Out, Adding Fuel for Further U.S. Equity Market Rally

Australia

Amcor Limited is an international integrated packaging company offering packaging and related services.  Amcor primarily produces a wide range of packaging products which include corrugated boxes, cartons, aluminum and steel cans, flexible plastic packaging, PET plastic bottles and jars, and multi-wall sacks.

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Amcor Limited (AMC AU)

Asia Dividend Forecasting | Quarterly Update 1.0

We incorporate latest reported financial data to provide updated results for our Asia Dividend Forecasting models. We also ran an insightful price...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

SCG Packaging IPO: Risks-Rewards Attractive at the Higher-End of the IPO Price Range

In our previous note, SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive, we suggested that, while we like SCGP for its longer-term...

Supun Walpola

AMVIG (2300 HK): Smoker's Delight - Possible Conditional Offer

After shres were halted on the

David Blennerhassett

Amcor – Spruce Point’s Methodology Is Unconvincing but That Doesn’t Mean They Will Be Wrong

On 10 Mar 2020 Spruce Point published research on Amcor calling into question the revenue growth prospects of Amcor and the deal rationale for its...

Mio Kato

MSCI ACWI, STOXX 600 Breaking Out, Adding Fuel for Further U.S. Equity Market Rally

In today’s report we reiterate our bullish U.S. investment thesis, recap significant technical levels across indexes, and highlight attractive...

Vermilion Research

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