Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an outright bullish stance. High yield spreads hit new 2021 narrows on Friday as they moved to 14-year lows. Additionally, defensive areas including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Gold (GLD) are breaking to new 2021 RS lows.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially something similar to what the market experienced between June and early-July. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Materials: Retailers, Footwear, Retailers, Teenagers, Metals, Steel, Integrated, Non-U.S., and Chemicals, Diversified.

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially something similar to what the market experienced between June and early-July. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Materials: Retailers, Footwear, Retailers, Teenagers, Metals, Steel, Integrated, Non-U.S., and Chemicals, Diversified.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Surveying the retail landscape over the weekend…we think we could see big reversals in the coming weeks for retail stocks.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Surveying the retail landscape over the weekend…we think we could see big reversals in the coming weeks for retail stocks.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly:  3 Things that Stood Out (In Retail) The Week of 5/​15/​2020

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

It was reported by several news media outlets that the private equity firm Sycamore Partners Management LP has been in talks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-brands-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20339:1" rel="noopener">L Brands Inc (LB US)</a> regarding the purchase of the latter’s iconic lingerie brand Victoria's Secret (VS). Media reports suggest that it is almost a done deal and an announcement can be expected as early as tomorrow, 18th February 2020. In addition to acquiring VS, Sycamore Partners Management LP is also weighing a private investment in public equity deal (PIPE) to help L Brands reduce its debt burden.

It was reported by several news media outlets that the private equity firm Sycamore Partners Management LP has been in talks with L Brands Inc (LB US) regarding the purchase of the latter’s iconic lingerie brand Victoria's Secret (VS). Media reports suggest that it is almost a done deal and an announcement can be expected as early as tomorrow, 18th February 2020. In addition to acquiring VS, Sycamore Partners Management LP is also weighing a private investment in public equity deal (PIPE) to help L Brands reduce its debt burden.

L Brands: Sale of Victoria's Secret Helps Draw Attention to Bath & Body’s Success

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aoyama-trading-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4544:1" rel="noopener">Aoyama Trading (8219 JP)</a> had previously confirmed its intention to cancel the franchise for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-eagle-outfitters" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10217:1" rel="noopener">American Eagle Outfitters (AEO US)</a> early but had assumed the US firm would buy the 33-store operation itself.Unfortunately the loss-making chain doesn’t have optimal locations and nor is the chain currently profitable. As a result, all stores and online will close this month.This leaves Aoyama much more vulnerable to the decline in its core market of salaryman suits.

Aoyama Trading (8219 JP) had previously confirmed its intention to cancel the franchise for American Eagle Outfitters (AEO US) early but had assumed the US firm would buy the 33-store operation itself.Unfortunately the loss-making chain doesn’t have optimal locations and nor is the chain currently profitable. As a result, all stores and online will close this month.This leaves Aoyama much more vulnerable to the decline in its core market of salaryman suits.

United States

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. retails men's and women's casual apparel, footwear, outerwear, and accessories.  The Company's products include jeans, khakis, T-shirts, and other similar apparel.  American Eagle operates in the United States.

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American Eagle Outfitters (AEO US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an...

Vermilion Research

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially...

Vermilion Research

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out (In Retail) The Week of 5/15/2020

Surveying the retail landscape over the weekend…we think we could see big reversals in the coming weeks for retail stocks.Obex’s fundamental...

Aaron Gabin

L Brands: Sale of Victoria's Secret Helps Draw Attention to Bath & Body’s Success

It was reported by several news media outlets that the private equity firm Sycamore Partners Management LP has been in talks with L Brands Inc (LB...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

American Eagle Outfitters Exits Japan

Aoyama Trading (8219 JP) had previously confirmed its intention to cancel the franchise for American Eagle Outfitters (AEO US) early but had...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Downgrading Consumer Staples To Underweight; Watching 10-Year Yield Closely

Market dynamics remain largely bullish and we continue to see signs of improving risk appetites. As a result, we are on the verge of shifting to an...

Vermilion Research

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially...

Vermilion Research

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out (In Retail) The Week of 5/​15/​2020

Surveying the retail landscape over the weekend…we think we could see big reversals in the coming weeks for retail stocks.Obex’s fundamental...

Aaron Gabin

L Brands: Sale of Victoria's Secret Helps Draw Attention to Bath & Body’s Success

It was reported by several news media outlets that the private equity firm Sycamore Partners Management LP has been in talks with L Brands Inc (LB...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

American Eagle Outfitters Exits Japan

Aoyama Trading (8219 JP) had previously confirmed its intention to cancel the franchise for American Eagle Outfitters (AEO US) early but had...

Michael Causton

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out (In Retail) The Week of 5/15/2020