Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for Express after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.</li><li>We believe, after a tough Xmas last year, Express offerings are materially more versatile, priced better and more inline with the split between fashion and basics to create multiple exciting looks and outfits.</li><li>As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and price target for EXPR.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for Express after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.We believe, after a tough Xmas last year, Express offerings are materially more versatile, priced better and more inline with the split between fashion and basics to create multiple exciting looks and outfits.As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and price target for EXPR.

EXPR: Snapping the Store: Remedying Issues of Xmas Past; Reiterate Buy, $40 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for Express with the company announcing 3QFY23 (October) results before the open on Thursday.</li><li>With a new Chief Executive Officer and Head Merchant and the Chief Financial Officer recently resigning for another opportunity, the 3Q call will be the first pronouncements from new management.</li><li>As such, and with operating comparisons continuing to ease and the product mix (especially in women's) improving, we reiterate our Buy rating and pricetarget for EXPR.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for Express with the company announcing 3QFY23 (October) results before the open on Thursday.With a new Chief Executive Officer and Head Merchant and the Chief Financial Officer recently resigning for another opportunity, the 3Q call will be the first pronouncements from new management.As such, and with operating comparisons continuing to ease and the product mix (especially in women's) improving, we reiterate our Buy rating and pricetarget for EXPR.

EXPR; 3Q Preview: New Management Set to Introduce Themselves; Reiterate Buy, PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target for Guess?, after the company reported mixed 3QFY24 (October) results, with EBITDA handily beating Street consensus, but EPS a miss, driven by a higher than expected tax rate and slightly weaker top line results, as Europe saw slowing traffic and the domestic stores remain negative.</li><li>Jeans), the recapture of the company's license for domestic outerwear and a normalization of the expense base.</li><li>As such, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target on GES, which now translates to 6.5X our new FY25 EBITDA.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target for Guess?, after the company reported mixed 3QFY24 (October) results, with EBITDA handily beating Street consensus, but EPS a miss, driven by a higher than expected tax rate and slightly weaker top line results, as Europe saw slowing traffic and the domestic stores remain negative.Jeans), the recapture of the company's license for domestic outerwear and a normalization of the expense base.As such, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target on GES, which now translates to 6.5X our new FY25 EBITDA.

GES: 3Q Review: Guess Goes Conservative for 4Q; Reiterate Buy, $32.50 Pt

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM</li>
<li>Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.</li>
<li>Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&amp;P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.</li>
</ul>


The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM
Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.
Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&amp;P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.


Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point</li>
<li>Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that's what happened</li>
<li>Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point
Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that's what happened
Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.


Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

United States

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. retails men's and women's casual apparel, footwear, outerwear, and accessories.  The Company's products include jeans, khakis, T-shirts, and other similar apparel.  American Eagle operates in the United States.

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American Eagle Outfitters (AEO US)

EXPR: Snapping the Store: Remedying Issues of Xmas Past; Reiterate Buy, $40 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for Express after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut. We believe,...

Small Cap Consumer Research

EXPR; 3Q Preview: New Management Set to Introduce Themselves; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for Express with the company announcing 3QFY23 (October) results before the...

Small Cap Consumer Research

GES: 3Q Review: Guess Goes Conservative for 4Q; Reiterate Buy, $32.50 Pt

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target for Guess?, after the company reported mixed 3QFY24 (October) results, with EBITDA...

Small Cap Consumer Research

Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

10/31/23 we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers as key $SPX $QQQ $IWM supports were being tested. 11/7/23 we argued it was MORE than just...

Vermilion Research

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More?; $DXY and Treasury Yields $TNX $TYX Breaking Key Supports, several other reasons why we...

Vermilion Research

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