Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There are vast differences in provisioning done for US banks during 1Q20. There are some banks that indicate a similar high level of provisions during 2Q20. Where this likely marks the worst in terms of unemployment, economic distress, and the reopening of economies, we wonder if credit costs can come way in during 2H20? Where the current crisis is self-inflicted from flipping a switch, wholly unlike drivers of the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis, the profile of provisioning can be vastly different. This is further the case against a backdrop strong recovery metrics, unprecedented fiscal stimulus and historically low rates.

There are vast differences in provisioning done for US banks during 1Q20. There are some banks that indicate a similar high level of provisions during 2Q20. Where this likely marks the worst in terms of unemployment, economic distress, and the reopening of economies, we wonder if credit costs can come way in during 2H20? Where the current crisis is self-inflicted from flipping a switch, wholly unlike drivers of the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis, the profile of provisioning can be vastly different. This is further the case against a backdrop strong recovery metrics, unprecedented fiscal stimulus and historically low rates.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to move increasingly toward the bullish camp and we believe equities are poised for higher prices moving forward. In today’s report we outline our bullish case and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials, Services, Technology and Manufacturing: Credit Card Issuers, Education Services, China, Solar Energy, and Industrial Rental Equipment.

We continue to move increasingly toward the bullish camp and we believe equities are poised for higher prices moving forward. In today’s report we outline our bullish case and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials, Services, Technology and Manufacturing: Credit Card Issuers, Education Services, China, Solar Energy, and Industrial Rental Equipment.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Cap-Weighted Communications to Overweight

Nearly half of all reporting US banks and specialty lenders, reported a decline in profit from 3Q18 to 4Q18. Of the 68 companies with populated data in our S&amp;P CIQ database, 30 companies show profit down QoQ. The average decline is 17% QoQ, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1018" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1018:1">Bank Of New York Mellon (BK US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/277" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:277:1">JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/279" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:279:1">Citigroup Inc (C US)</a> included in this group.

Nearly half of all reporting US banks and specialty lenders, reported a decline in profit from 3Q18 to 4Q18. Of the 68 companies with populated data in our S&amp;P CIQ database, 30 companies show profit down QoQ. The average decline is 17% QoQ, with Bank Of New York Mellon (BK US), JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM US), and Citigroup Inc (C US) included in this group.

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Delta outperformed major U.S. airlines during the fuel price spike, supported by refinery exposure, premium revenue strength, and diversified revenue streams.</li>
<li>Delta’s premium-heavy revenue mix and USD 2 billion AmEx partnership insulated earnings from fuel volatility far better than its rivals.</li>
<li>Even if jet fuel prices fall, Delta’s loyalty business, MRO operations, and premium demand position it to remain among the industry’s strongest performers.</li>
</ul>


Delta outperformed major U.S. airlines during the fuel price spike, supported by refinery exposure, premium revenue strength, and diversified revenue streams.
Delta’s premium-heavy revenue mix and USD 2 billion AmEx partnership insulated earnings from fuel volatility far better than its rivals.
Even if jet fuel prices fall, Delta’s loyalty business, MRO operations, and premium demand position it to remain among the industry’s strongest performers.


Delta’s Structural Advantages Point to Further Outperformance

Today's key points:<ul>
<li>Property &amp; Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts.</li>
<li>Airlines are staging price and SR reversals to the upside and/or are breaking out.</li>
<li>Railroad related names are breaking out.</li>
<li>We have been bearish on the Semiconductor and Suppliers industry since February; however we are seeing some near term reversals at support levels.</li>
</ul>Highlighted charts: SUP, CMG, LOCO, MCS, EXPE, AMZN, WBA, K, NR, NOV, SLCA, BHGE, OIS, HLX, JPM, WFC, KEY, AXP, AFL, TMK, HSIC, ZBH, OMCL, ANTM, LLY, PFE, AGN, B, WM, ESND, ECHO, and SKYW.

Today's key points:
Property &amp; Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts.
Airlines are staging price and SR reversals to the upside and/or are breaking out.
Railroad related names are breaking out.
We have been bearish on the Semiconductor and Suppliers industry since February; however we are seeing some near term reversals at support levels.
Highlighted charts: SUP, CMG, LOCO, MCS, EXPE, AMZN, WBA, K, NR, NOV, SLCA, BHGE, OIS, HLX, JPM, WFC, KEY, AXP, AFL, TMK, HSIC, ZBH, OMCL, ANTM, LLY, PFE, AGN, B, WM, ESND, ECHO, and SKYW.

U.S. Vital Signs - Actionable Charts of the Day

United States

American Express Company is a global payment and travel company. The Company's principal products and services are charge and credit payment card products and travel-related services offered to consumers and businesses around the world.

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American Express Co (AXP US)

US Banks – Provisions To Halve?

There are vast differences in provisioning done for US banks during 1Q20. There are some banks that indicate a similar high level of provisions...

Daniel Tabbush

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Cap-Weighted Communications to Overweight

We continue to move increasingly toward the bullish camp and we believe equities are poised for higher prices moving forward. In today’s report we...

Vermilion Research

US Banks - Declining Profit

Nearly half of all reporting US banks and specialty lenders, reported a decline in profit from 3Q18 to 4Q18. Of the 68 companies with populated...

Daniel Tabbush

Delta’s Structural Advantages Point to Further Outperformance

Under new CEO Greg Abel, Berkshire Hathaway built a $2.65 billion stake in Delta Air Lines during Q1 2026. The investment reflects Delta’s...

Mint Finance

U.S. Vital Signs - Actionable Charts of the Day

Today's key points: Property & Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts. Airlines are staging price and SR...

Vermilion Research

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