Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Amgen's Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call highlighted several strategic moves and positive outcomes for the biotechnology company.</li><li>This past year, the company acquired Horizon Therapeutics, which foundationalized a new branch contributing to its growth.</li><li>Also, 18 of Amgen's medicines reached record annual sales, including Repatha, Prolia, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE, BLINCYTO, KRYSTEXXA, and UPLIZNA. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Amgen's Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call highlighted several strategic moves and positive outcomes for the biotechnology company.This past year, the company acquired Horizon Therapeutics, which foundationalized a new branch contributing to its growth.Also, 18 of Amgen's medicines reached record annual sales, including Repatha, Prolia, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE, BLINCYTO, KRYSTEXXA, and UPLIZNA. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Amgen Inc: An Analysis Of The Pipeline Progress and Development! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Amgen delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed earnings beat.</li><li>The company achieved significant quarterly sales for seven key brands and witnessed substantial volume growth across general medicine, inflammation, and hematology/oncology portfolios.</li><li>In bone health, Prolia reported a 14% year-over-year sales increase in the third quarter, buoyed by a 7% volume growth and higher net selling prices.</li></ul>

Amgen delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed earnings beat.The company achieved significant quarterly sales for seven key brands and witnessed substantial volume growth across general medicine, inflammation, and hematology/oncology portfolios.In bone health, Prolia reported a 14% year-over-year sales increase in the third quarter, buoyed by a 7% volume growth and higher net selling prices.

Amgen Inc.: Expansion Of Oncology Research & Other Major Drivers

<ul><li>Amgen managed to exceed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street, instilling confidence in its capacity for sustained long-term growth in both sales and earnings.</li><li>This growth was underpinned by a global volume increase of 11% for the quarter, with contributions from all three therapeutic areas and geographical regions.</li><li>Notable highlights included a 21% volume growth in their General Medicine segment and robust performance in the Asia Pacific region.</li></ul>

Amgen managed to exceed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street, instilling confidence in its capacity for sustained long-term growth in both sales and earnings.This growth was underpinned by a global volume increase of 11% for the quarter, with contributions from all three therapeutic areas and geographical regions.Notable highlights included a 21% volume growth in their General Medicine segment and robust performance in the Asia Pacific region.

Amgen Inc.: Which New Medicines Became Their Growth Powerhouses? - Major Drivers

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On August 29, the Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services unveiled list of 10 drugs, which will come for the first round of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act.</li>
<li>From June 2022 to May 2023, more than 8 million people covered by Medicare used these 10 drugs, which accounted for more than $50B spending in Medicare Part D.</li>
<li>The negotiated price will be effective on January 1, 2026. Most of the companies will not be significantly impacted by the drug price negotiation.</li>
</ul>


On August 29, the Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services unveiled list of 10 drugs, which will come for the first round of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act.
From June 2022 to May 2023, more than 8 million people covered by Medicare used these 10 drugs, which accounted for more than $50B spending in Medicare Part D.
The negotiated price will be effective on January 1, 2026. Most of the companies will not be significantly impacted by the drug price negotiation.


10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> are high probability deletions in September, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> is a high probability inclusion.</li>
<li>The second add could be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a> if it passes the velocity test. If not, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> will be added.</li>
<li>With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, short interest has been rising on all the other stocks and could affect how the stocks trade close to implementation date.</li>
</ul>



Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) are high probability deletions in September, while Trip.com (9961 HK) is a high probability inclusion.
The second add could be BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) if it passes the velocity test. If not, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) will be added.
With the exception of Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), short interest has been rising on all the other stocks and could affect how the stocks trade close to implementation date.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

United States

Amgen Inc. is an independent biotechnology medicines company that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets medicines for grievous illnesses. The Company focuses solely on human therapeutics and concentrates on innovating novel medicines based on advances in cellular and molecular biology.

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Amgen Inc (AMGN US)

Amgen Inc: An Analysis Of The Pipeline Progress and Development! - Major Drivers

Amgen's Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call highlighted several strategic moves and positive outcomes for the biotechnology...

Baptista Research

Amgen Inc.: Expansion Of Oncology Research & Other Major Drivers

Amgen delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed earnings beat. The...

Baptista Research

Amgen Inc.: Which New Medicines Became Their Growth Powerhouses? - Major Drivers

Amgen managed to exceed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street, instilling confidence in its capacity for sustained long-term growth...

Baptista Research

10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation

CMS announces first round of price negotiations for 10 drugs under Inflation Reduction Act, affecting millions of Medicare users and $50B in...

Tina Banerjee

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

The two potential adds have outperformed the two potential deletes by 42% since end May and by 52% since end June. Shorts have jumped on Beigene...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Amgen Inc: An Analysis Of The Pipeline Progress and Development! - Major Drivers

Amgen's Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call highlighted several strategic moves and positive outcomes for the biotechnology...

Baptista Research

Amgen Inc.: Expansion Of Oncology Research & Other Major Drivers

Amgen delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed earnings beat. The...

Baptista Research

Amgen Inc.: Which New Medicines Became Their Growth Powerhouses? - Major Drivers

Amgen managed to exceed the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street, instilling confidence in its capacity for sustained long-term growth...

Baptista Research

10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation

​CMS announces first round of price negotiations for 10 drugs under Inflation Reduction Act, affecting millions of Medicare users and $50B in...

Tina Banerjee

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

The two potential adds have outperformed the two potential deletes by 42% since end May and by 52% since end June. Shorts have jumped on Beigene...

Brian Freitas

CMS announces first round of price negotiations for 10 drugs under Inflation Reduction Act, affecting millions of Medicare users and $50B in...