Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to Monday Delights!</li>
<li>This is your Monday morning dose of inspiration. Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.</li>
<li>The ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to Monday Delights!
This is your Monday morning dose of inspiration. Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
The ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.


Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be honest - it’s a bit scuffed, but if I don’t put it out, I’ll get further behind on semiconductor earnings.</li>
<li>On semiconductor beat on Chinese industrial strength. It looks cheap.</li>
<li>Lattice is likely stuffing the channel, and the divergence between AMD’s embedded and Lattice means their channel is worse off. Amkor saw real weakness in industrial, and that’s what made the guide miss. Arista had a clean beat; I think they are sandbagging forward revenue.</li>
</ul>


This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be honest - it’s a bit scuffed, but if I don’t put it out, I’ll get further behind on semiconductor earnings.
On semiconductor beat on Chinese industrial strength. It looks cheap.
Lattice is likely stuffing the channel, and the divergence between AMD’s embedded and Lattice means their channel is worse off. Amkor saw real weakness in industrial, and that’s what made the guide miss. Arista had a clean beat; I think they are sandbagging forward revenue.


Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Silicon Box January series B funding round in January 2024 pushed the advanced packaging startup into Unicorn status with a &gt;$1 billion valuation</li>
<li>In addition to their Singapore based 70,000 sq metre facility, they announced a second, $3.6 billion investment in Italy in March 2024</li>
<li>Despite their unicorn status and being in business for nigh on three years, we still have no specifics on the precise nature of the advanced packaging technology they are offering</li>
</ul>


Silicon Box January series B funding round in January 2024 pushed the advanced packaging startup into Unicorn status with a &gt;$1 billion valuation
In addition to their Singapore based 70,000 sq metre facility, they announced a second, $3.6 billion investment in Italy in March 2024
Despite their unicorn status and being in business for nigh on three years, we still have no specifics on the precise nature of the advanced packaging technology they are offering


<ul><li>Like last week, I will do a meta-level overview summary. That’s why I read these calls; to understand the whole, you must understand the parts.</li><li>Smartphone markets continue to recover, but the demand is sluggish, and handsets should be flattish for the year. Industrial is bottoming at multiple companies, and Skyworks looks like it lost RF share to Qorvo. Telecom looks to be bottoming (NXPI).</li><li>I think it's pretty clear that the automotive cycle should be bought, not sold. And we continue to see strength in consumers (AMKR, QCOM). I am starting to like the Rambus story again, as I think their client business, the PMIC, and potentially CXL businesses could add 200m+ incremental revenue on top of the DDR5 share story in the coming years.</li></ul>

Like last week, I will do a meta-level overview summary. That’s why I read these calls; to understand the whole, you must understand the parts.Smartphone markets continue to recover, but the demand is sluggish, and handsets should be flattish for the year. Industrial is bottoming at multiple companies, and Skyworks looks like it lost RF share to Qorvo. Telecom looks to be bottoming (NXPI).I think it's pretty clear that the automotive cycle should be bought, not sold. And we continue to see strength in consumers (AMKR, QCOM). I am starting to like the Rambus story again, as I think their client business, the PMIC, and potentially CXL businesses could add 200m+ incremental revenue on top of the DDR5 share story in the coming years.

Earnings (AMKR, RMBS, NXPI, SWKS, ENTG, QCOM, WOLF, QRVO, ACLS)

United States

Amkor Technology, Inc. provides semiconductor packaging and test services.  The Company offers deep submicron wafer fabrication, wafer probe testing, integrated circuit packaging assembly and design, final testing, reliability testing, burn-in, and electrical characterization.

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Amkor Technology (AMKR US)

Monday Delight: 03/02/25

Welcome back to Monday Delights! This is your Monday morning dose of inspiration. Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that...

Contrarian Cashflows

Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD

This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be...

Fabricated Knowledge

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Silicon Box Or Silicon Black Box?

Silicon Box, the Singapore-based advanced packaging startup launched in 2021, reached Unicorn status with their Series B in Jan '24. Yet the...

William Keating

Earnings (AMKR, RMBS, NXPI, SWKS, ENTG, QCOM, WOLF, QRVO, ACLS)

Like last week, I will do a meta-level overview summary. That’s why I read these calls; to understand the whole, you must understand the parts....

Fabricated Knowledge

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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