Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Foreign flows reversed; Poultry and Metals outperformed. After four consecutive weeks of inflows (US$680mn), foreign equity flows reversed to -US$254mn, partly driven by last week’s street protests, despite signs of deescalation this week.</li><li>Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).</li><li>Despite this, JCI managed to close +0.5% on the week, supported by metals sectors (ANTM +12% w-w, AMMN +3%, MDKA +6%), and conglomerate groups stocks (+DSSA +7% w-w, EMTK +7%, SMMA). ttractive at 11.9x P/E (-1.5SD to 5-year mean), following underperformance (-14% YTD).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Foreign flows reversed; Poultry and Metals outperformed. After four consecutive weeks of inflows (US$680mn), foreign equity flows reversed to -US$254mn, partly driven by last week’s street protests, despite signs of deescalation this week.Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).Despite this, JCI managed to close +0.5% on the week, supported by metals sectors (ANTM +12% w-w, AMMN +3%, MDKA +6%), and conglomerate groups stocks (+DSSA +7% w-w, EMTK +7%, SMMA). ttractive at 11.9x P/E (-1.5SD to 5-year mean), following underperformance (-14% YTD).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – Metal sector vs. gold price

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>What is Happening: VanEck shifts GDX’s US$19.5bn benchmark to MVGDX on 19 Sept 2025, cutting constituents from ~62 to 44 with stricter purity and liquidity rules.</li>
<li>Impact: Estimated US$10bn turnover; Zijin excluded, Pan American added, Amman included short-term but copper-driven revenue mix riks future exclusion under MVGDX’s ≥50% threshold.</li>
<li>What to Do: Fade Zijin’s mechanical exclusion, stay cautious on Amman, and rotate into high-purity beneficiaries (Agnico Eagle, Pan American Silver, Shandong Gold) likely to gain weight.</li>
</ul>


What is Happening: VanEck shifts GDX’s US$19.5bn benchmark to MVGDX on 19 Sept 2025, cutting constituents from ~62 to 44 with stricter purity and liquidity rules.
Impact: Estimated US$10bn turnover; Zijin excluded, Pan American added, Amman included short-term but copper-driven revenue mix riks future exclusion under MVGDX’s ≥50% threshold.
What to Do: Fade Zijin’s mechanical exclusion, stay cautious on Amman, and rotate into high-purity beneficiaries (Agnico Eagle, Pan American Silver, Shandong Gold) likely to gain weight.


VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook</li>
<li>Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.</li>
<li>The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.</li>
</ul>


Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook
Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.
The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.


Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

<ul><li>JCI rallied by a strong 4.8% w-w and was the top performer among the EM markets last week.</li><li>The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and illiquid and conglo stocks (DCII, DSSA).</li><li>Market’s rally was also driven by the strong return in foreign investors’ flow which amounted to US$412mn, which put Indonesia among the only market with positive flow among the Asian EMs, with notable inflows into large-cap banks and TLKM. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JCI rallied by a strong 4.8% w-w and was the top performer among the EM markets last week.The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and illiquid and conglo stocks (DCII, DSSA).Market’s rally was also driven by the strong return in foreign investors’ flow which amounted to US$412mn, which put Indonesia among the only market with positive flow among the Asian EMs, with notable inflows into large-cap banks and TLKM. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Banking Sector’s P/BV Band Chart (5-Year)

Indonesia

PT Amman Mineral Internasional operates as a copper and gold mining company. The Company focuses on exploration, mine development, and mining and processing of copper and gold ore. Amman Mineral Internasional serves customers worldwide.

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Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – Metal sector vs. gold price

Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).

BRI Danareksa Research

VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

VanEck shifts GDX benchmark to MVGDX, impacting turnover and constituent selection. Watch Zijin, Amman, and consider high-purity beneficiaries for...

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Banking Sector’s P/BV Band Chart (5-Year)

The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and...

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – Metal sector vs. gold price

Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).

BRI Danareksa Research

VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

​VanEck shifts GDX benchmark to MVGDX, impacting turnover and constituent selection. Watch Zijin, Amman, and consider high-purity beneficiaries for...

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

​Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Banking Sector’s P/BV Band Chart (5-Year)

The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and...

BRI Danareksa Research

VanEck shifts GDX benchmark to MVGDX, impacting turnover and constituent selection. Watch Zijin, Amman, and consider high-purity beneficiaries for...

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.