Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY25 is the trough: weak smelter ramp (3–39%) and export ban drive losses; recovery depends on utilisation &gt;50% in FY26.</li>
<li>FY26 mining strong, smelter unclear: 220 kt Cu and 579 koz Au guided, but smelter repairs run through H1’26.</li>
<li>Index risk rising: gold share &lt;20% puts AMMN at high risk of GDX/MVGDX exclusion, with US$140–200m passive outflows.</li>
</ul>


FY25 is the trough: weak smelter ramp (3–39%) and export ban drive losses; recovery depends on utilisation &gt;50% in FY26.
FY26 mining strong, smelter unclear: 220 kt Cu and 579 koz Au guided, but smelter repairs run through H1’26.
Index risk rising: gold share &lt;20% puts AMMN at high risk of GDX/MVGDX exclusion, with US$140–200m passive outflows.


AMMN IJ – Transitional Trough in 9M25; FY26 Mining Upside, Index Overhang Persists

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.</li>
<li>Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.</li>
<li>The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.</li>
</ul>


Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.
Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.
The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.


Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

<ul>
<li>Q1/H1 2025 results: Revenue collapsed (–88% YoY) and EBITDA turned negative due to concentrate export expiry and slow smelter ramp-up.</li>
<li>Earnings revisions: FY25–26 cut sharply (–60–70% vs earlier estimates), with normalization only from FY27.</li>
<li>Valuation: At ~USD 37 bn (IDR 8,175/share), AMMN looks fully priced, with our SOTP implying 10–20% downside.</li>
</ul>


Q1/H1 2025 results: Revenue collapsed (–88% YoY) and EBITDA turned negative due to concentrate export expiry and slow smelter ramp-up.
Earnings revisions: FY25–26 cut sharply (–60–70% vs earlier estimates), with normalization only from FY27.
Valuation: At ~USD 37 bn (IDR 8,175/share), AMMN looks fully priced, with our SOTP implying 10–20% downside.


Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) – Q1 Weak, Forecasts Cut, Stock Fully Priced

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> announced last month it would change its benchmark for the September rebalance, to the Market Vectors Global Gold Miners Index. </li>
<li>That means name changes based on methodology and universe changes. So we introduce coverage of the index, its rebalances, and the big flow in September.</li>
<li>We also add in cross flows from the MV Junior Gold Miners Index, offer spreadsheets, flow tables, leaderboards for the GDX index. Lots of data here.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) announced last month it would change its benchmark for the September rebalance, to the Market Vectors Global Gold Miners Index. 
That means name changes based on methodology and universe changes. So we introduce coverage of the index, its rebalances, and the big flow in September.
We also add in cross flows from the MV Junior Gold Miners Index, offer spreadsheets, flow tables, leaderboards for the GDX index. Lots of data here.


[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - Benchmark Change for Sep Rebal - $2.8bn One Way

Indonesia

PT Amman Mineral Internasional operates as a copper and gold mining company. The Company focuses on exploration, mine development, and mining and processing of copper and gold ore. Amman Mineral Internasional serves customers worldwide.

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Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)

AMMN IJ – Transitional Trough in 9M25; FY26 Mining Upside, Index Overhang Persists

FY25 is a challenging year with weak smelter ramp and export ban driving losses, recovery hinges on utilisation exceeding 50% in FY26.

Rahul Jain

Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

Following a market consult, Indonesia's weight in a global index could drop in May. Float could reduce in 13 stocks; 4 stocks could be deleted from...

Brian Freitas