Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.</li>
<li>Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.</li>
<li>With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.</li>
</ul>


Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.
Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.
With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.


Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

Commodities

<ul>
<li>What is Happening: VanEck shifts GDX’s US$19.5bn benchmark to MVGDX on 19 Sept 2025, cutting constituents from ~62 to 44 with stricter purity and liquidity rules.</li>
<li>Impact: Estimated US$10bn turnover; Zijin excluded, Pan American added, Amman included short-term but copper-driven revenue mix riks future exclusion under MVGDX’s ≥50% threshold.</li>
<li>What to Do: Fade Zijin’s mechanical exclusion, stay cautious on Amman, and rotate into high-purity beneficiaries (Agnico Eagle, Pan American Silver, Shandong Gold) likely to gain weight.</li>
</ul>


What is Happening: VanEck shifts GDX’s US$19.5bn benchmark to MVGDX on 19 Sept 2025, cutting constituents from ~62 to 44 with stricter purity and liquidity rules.
Impact: Estimated US$10bn turnover; Zijin excluded, Pan American added, Amman included short-term but copper-driven revenue mix riks future exclusion under MVGDX’s ≥50% threshold.
What to Do: Fade Zijin’s mechanical exclusion, stay cautious on Amman, and rotate into high-purity beneficiaries (Agnico Eagle, Pan American Silver, Shandong Gold) likely to gain weight.


VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

<ul>
<li>Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook</li>
<li>Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.</li>
<li>The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.</li>
</ul>


Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook
Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.
The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.


Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners Index (GDX) represents the performance of large-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed/rebalanced quarterly.  For September, there is a big increase in flow events as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF changes benchmark to the GDX Index.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of changes to go with the change in benchmark leading to US$5.8bn of two-way flows. It's a big deal. </li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners Index (GDX) represents the performance of large-cap and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed/rebalanced quarterly.  For September, there is a big increase in flow events as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF changes benchmark to the GDX Index.
There are a bunch of changes to go with the change in benchmark leading to US$5.8bn of two-way flows. It's a big deal. 


[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal - $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade

Indonesia

PT Amman Mineral Internasional operates as a copper and gold mining company. The Company focuses on exploration, mine development, and mining and processing of copper and gold ore. Amman Mineral Internasional serves customers worldwide.

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Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

VanEck shifts GDX benchmark to MVGDX, impacting turnover and constituent selection. Watch Zijin, Amman, and consider high-purity beneficiaries for...

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal - $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade

The Van Eck Gold Miners ETF rebal in September comes with a change in benchmark which makes this a bigger deal than normal. That adds flows. We see...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

​Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

VanEck GDX Benchmark Switch: Implications for Zijin and Amman

​VanEck shifts GDX benchmark to MVGDX, impacting turnover and constituent selection. Watch Zijin, Amman, and consider high-purity beneficiaries for...

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

​Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

[Quiddity Index] Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Sep25 Rebal - $5.8bn of Gold Stocks To Trade

The Van Eck Gold Miners ETF rebal in September comes with a change in benchmark which makes this a bigger deal than normal. That adds flows. We see...

Travis Lundy

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

VanEck shifts GDX benchmark to MVGDX, impacting turnover and constituent selection. Watch Zijin, Amman, and consider high-purity beneficiaries for...

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.