Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Renesas Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>Renesas, along with INCJ, aims to raise around US$3.4bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. We covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/renesas-placement-very-well-flagged-past-deals-have-done-well-but-large-size-warrants-correction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Renesas Placement - Very Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well but Large Size Warrants Correction.</a></p>
<p>In this note, I'll talk about the updates since then.</p>
</div>


Renesas, along with INCJ, aims to raise around US$3.4bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. We covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note, Renesas Placement - Very Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well but Large Size Warrants Correction.
In this note, I'll talk about the updates since then.


Renesas Placement Update - Doing Much Better than Its past Deals. Could Impact Post-Deal Performance

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>BOC Aviation | BOCAVI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boc-aviation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22689:1" rel="noopener">(2588 HK)</a> </strong></p>
<p>As a follow-up on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a>'s Smartkarma Original <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-pac-airports-ups-but-mostly-downs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51855" rel="noopener">Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs</a>, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.</p>
<p><strong>BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. </strong>The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.</p>
<p><strong>Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. </strong>At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  </p>
<p><strong>We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021.</strong> By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. </p>
<p><strong>We are buyers at book value.</strong> The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.</p>
<p>Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary</p>

BOC Aviation | BOCAVI (2588 HK) 
As a follow-up on David Blennerhassett's Smartkarma Original Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.
BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.
Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  
We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021. By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. 
We are buyers at book value. The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.
Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Japan Airport Terminal Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Japan, like many other countries, is still fighting the COVID-19 pandemic through lockdowns and vaccinations at the same and drew concerns from the global community on holding the Olympic Games. </p>
<p>The majority of the tourist attractions have reopened although a small part of them remained closed, increasing the confidence that the Japanese government has come up with a plan to contain the pandemic to ensure the success and safety of the Olympics and opening up the country for overseas tourists sooner rather than later. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>For Long Short Investors - shorting the company on December 20th, 2020 has paid off. With the positive sentiment coming through, it is time to buy to cover this short and lock in the profit. </strong></p>
<p><strong>For Long Only Investors - Trading at 37.5% lower from its peak PBR ratio for the past 1 year, combined with the positive sentiment and a catch-up play against the Japanese airlines, paying  2.5x PBR is not too expensive. Start to accumulate. </strong></p>
</div>

Japan, like many other countries, is still fighting the COVID-19 pandemic through lockdowns and vaccinations at the same and drew concerns from the global community on holding the Olympic Games. 
The majority of the tourist attractions have reopened although a small part of them remained closed, increasing the confidence that the Japanese government has come up with a plan to contain the pandemic to ensure the success and safety of the Olympics and opening up the country for overseas tourists sooner rather than later. 

For Long Short Investors - shorting the company on December 20th, 2020 has paid off. With the positive sentiment coming through, it is time to buy to cover this short and lock in the profit. 
For Long Only Investors - Trading at 37.5% lower from its peak PBR ratio for the past 1 year, combined with the positive sentiment and a catch-up play against the Japanese airlines, paying  2.5x PBR is not too expensive. Start to accumulate. 


Japan Airport Terminal (9706): Olympic Is Coming

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Real Estate sectors, and decreased in the Financials, Industrials, and Information Technology sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daito-trust-construct-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10503:1" rel="noopener">Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE Holdings (5411 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyu-fudosan-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8355:1" rel="noopener">Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">Ana Holdings (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-i-s-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19311:1" rel="noopener">H I S Co Ltd (9603 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/euglena-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8414:1" rel="noopener">Euglena Co Ltd (2931 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary sectors, and decreased in the Industrials sector.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> during the week while decreasing on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-infracore-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3982:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Infracore (042670 KS)</a>. The short sell ban has ended today and short selling will be permitted on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> constituents from Monday, 3 May.</p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-development-financial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13818:1" rel="noopener">China Development Financial (2883 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walsin-lihwa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17142:1" rel="noopener">Walsin Lihwa (1605 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/compal-electronics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4620:1" rel="noopener">Compal Electronics (2324 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">AU Optronics (2409 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asmedia-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15732:1" rel="noopener">Asmedia Technology (5269 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genius-electronic-optical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9632:1" rel="noopener">Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK), WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK) and Sunny Optical (2382 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK). Shorts increased in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Real Estate sectors, and decreased in the Financials, Industrials, and Information Technology sectors.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Lasertec Corp (6920 JP), Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Daito Trust Construct (1878 JP), JFE Holdings (5411 JP) and Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289 JP) while shorts decreased on Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Ana Holdings (9202 JP), H I S Co Ltd (9603 JP), Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) and Euglena Co Ltd (2931 JP). Shorts increased in the Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary sectors, and decreased in the Industrials sector.In Korea, shorts increased on Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) and Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) during the week while decreasing on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS) and Doosan Infracore (042670 KS). The short sell ban has ended today and short selling will be permitted on Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) constituents from Monday, 3 May.Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were China Development Financial (2883 TT), Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT), Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Walsin Lihwa (1605 TT) and Compal Electronics (2324 TT) while shorts were covered on AU Optronics (2409 TT), Winbond Electronics (2344 TT), Asmedia Technology (5269 TT), Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT) and Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT).

Asia Shorts: Tencent, CM Bank, Wuxi Apptec, Baidu, Anritsu, Daito, Ana, Yang Ming, Evergreen Marine

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Japan Airport Terminal Co / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Japan Airport Terminal announced a roughly ¥60bn equity offering yesterday as the company seeks to expand its terminals. The balance sheet was not especially strong prior to the offering and with depreciation costs already rising due to previous investments we have some concerns about continued aggressive investment when the demand outlook is so unclear.</p>

Japan Airport Terminal announced a roughly ¥60bn equity offering yesterday as the company seeks to expand its terminals. The balance sheet was not especially strong prior to the offering and with depreciation costs already rising due to previous investments we have some concerns about continued aggressive investment when the demand outlook is so unclear.

Japan Airport Terminal Offering – Remains Perplexingly Pricey

Japan

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

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Ana Holdings (9202 JP)

Renesas Placement Update - Doing Much Better than Its past Deals. Could Impact Post-Deal Performance

Renesas and INCJ, aims to raise around US$3.4bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. We covered most aspects of the deal in our...

Sumeet Singh

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

As downstream players continue to hemorrhage cash, over 99% of BOCAVI’s aircraft are still cash-generating. Valuation is undemanding for a high...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Japan Airport Terminal (9706): Olympic Is Coming

Tourist attractions have reopened although a small part of them remained closed, increase sing confidence the Olympics and opening up the country...

Henry Soediarko

Asia Shorts: Tencent, CM Bank, Wuxi Apptec, Baidu, Anritsu, Daito, Ana, Yang Ming, Evergreen Marine

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Japan Airport Terminal Offering – Remains Perplexingly Pricey

We question the wisdom of aggressive investment despite an extremely uncertain demand outlook, especially when raising significant equity capital...

Mio Kato

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