Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-<em>November</em> 2024.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-November 2024.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Nov 2024 Ranks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a> IPO is one of the largest IPOs of recent years, well-flagged, and it is hot hot hot!  A super stable, well-known, well-respected, service provider.</li>
<li>There are numerous attractions but I expect people have not thought too deeply about the demand and supply dynamics of different holder types. It's worth thinking about. </li>
<li>This was priced "cheap" but everyone knows that so there may be flippers. This is probably more Japan Post Bank than Japan Post Insurance.</li>
</ul>


The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO is one of the largest IPOs of recent years, well-flagged, and it is hot hot hot!  A super stable, well-known, well-respected, service provider.
There are numerous attractions but I expect people have not thought too deeply about the demand and supply dynamics of different holder types. It's worth thinking about. 
This was priced "cheap" but everyone knows that so there may be flippers. This is probably more Japan Post Bank than Japan Post Insurance.


The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket - What To Look For

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2025 based on trading data as of end-September 2024.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2025 based on trading data as of end-September 2024.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Sep 2024 Ranks

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With more foreign countries being granted visa-free visits to China, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> will benefit from more transfer traffic via Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Recovery is decent with passenger traffic rising 37.5% in 5M24. CX's capacity already returned to 80% of pre-pandemic in 2Q24, and this will reach 100% in 1Q25. </li>
<li>YTD, CX is still a laggard relative to many global airlines. Its P/B valuation is not stretched at 0.8x, given ROE of 11% over the next 3 years.  </li>
</ul>


With more foreign countries being granted visa-free visits to China, Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) will benefit from more transfer traffic via Hong Kong.
Recovery is decent with passenger traffic rising 37.5% in 5M24. CX's capacity already returned to 80% of pre-pandemic in 2Q24, and this will reach 100% in 1Q25. 
YTD, CX is still a laggard relative to many global airlines. Its P/B valuation is not stretched at 0.8x, given ROE of 11% over the next 3 years.  


Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

<ul>
<li>JAL finishing FY24 strongly with another guidance upgrade – upgraded FY26 targets more logical in light of existing ANA targets</li>
<li>​Demand momentum particularly helpful as wages rise across Japan and ​cost control to remain impressive over FY25-FY26 as LCC growth set to dilute FSC inflation</li>
<li>​Detailed analysis of JAL’s widening margin gap to ANA suggests revenue solution required – momentum helpful and needs to be watched carefully</li>
</ul>


JAL finishing FY24 strongly with another guidance upgrade – upgraded FY26 targets more logical in light of existing ANA targets
​Demand momentum particularly helpful as wages rise across Japan and ​cost control to remain impressive over FY25-FY26 as LCC growth set to dilute FSC inflation
​Detailed analysis of JAL’s widening margin gap to ANA suggests revenue solution required – momentum helpful and needs to be watched carefully


Japan Airlines – Encouraging Lifting of Medium Term Expectations to Narrow Recovery Gap to ANA

Japan

ANA Holdings Inc provides a variety of air transportation-related services. The Company offers scheduled & unscheduled air passenger services and air courier services. ANA sells aircraft parts and provides travel arrangement & reservation services as well.

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Ana Holdings (9202 JP)

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Nov 2024 Ranks

In total, there are 46 Potential ADDs and 45 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. There are 7 months to the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket - What To Look For

The Tokyo Metro IPO is 23 October. There is substantial index buying demand at month end of both Oct/Nov, then a lull. Flippers will flip, the...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Sep 2024 Ranks

There are 43 Potential ADDs and 42 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. The final rankings will be based on...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

As more countries gain visa-free access to China, CX will benefit from increased transfer traffic. CX's recovery is on track with passenger...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Japan Airlines – Encouraging Lifting of Medium Term Expectations to Narrow Recovery Gap to ANA

Detailed analysis of JAL's medium term plan update, FY24-FY26 earnings prospects, and widening margin gap to principal competitor All Nippon Airways

Neil Glynn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Nov 2024 Ranks

In total, there are 46 Potential ADDs and 45 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. There are 7 months to the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket - What To Look For

The Tokyo Metro IPO is 23 October. There is substantial index buying demand at month end of both Oct/Nov, then a lull. Flippers will flip, the...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Sep 2024 Ranks

There are 43 Potential ADDs and 42 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. The final rankings will be based on...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Multiple Positive Developments

​As more countries gain visa-free access to China, CX will benefit from increased transfer traffic. CX's recovery is on track with passenger...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Japan Airlines – Encouraging Lifting of Medium Term Expectations to Narrow Recovery Gap to ANA

Detailed analysis of JAL's medium term plan update, FY24-FY26 earnings prospects, and widening margin gap to principal competitor All Nippon Airways

Neil Glynn

As more countries gain visa-free access to China, CX will benefit from increased transfer traffic. CX's recovery is on track with passenger...