Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector</li>
<li>Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months</li>
<li>Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle</li>
</ul>


There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector
Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months
Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle


AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China’s analog chip probe and revived Nvidia antitrust case are part of a deeper strategy to force foreign tech out of its supply chain.</li>
<li>Nvidia’s China-only B40 flops, with buyers preferring grey market alternatives. Meanwhile, Domestic chipmakers like Novosense and SG Micro have rallied sharply as procurement tilts inward.</li>
<li>If Beijing blocks Nvidia’s B30A next, it could mark a full commercial exit. U.S. peers like TXN, AMD, and Synopsys may also not be far behind.</li>
</ul>


China’s analog chip probe and revived Nvidia antitrust case are part of a deeper strategy to force foreign tech out of its supply chain.
Nvidia’s China-only B40 flops, with buyers preferring grey market alternatives. Meanwhile, Domestic chipmakers like Novosense and SG Micro have rallied sharply as procurement tilts inward.
If Beijing blocks Nvidia’s B30A next, it could mark a full commercial exit. U.S. peers like TXN, AMD, and Synopsys may also not be far behind.


Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> will have largest outflows.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US). Broadcom (AVGO US) will have largest outflows.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We assume that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.</li>
<li>The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. </li>
</ul>


We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. 


Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There is expected to be US$600m to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">Invesco S&amp;P500 Equal Weight</a> ETFs at the same time as the selling from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There is expected to be US$600m to sell in Broadcom from the Technology Select Sector and Invesco S&amp;P500 Equal Weight ETFs at the same time as the selling from VanEck Vectors Semiconductor.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

United States

Analog Devices, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits used in analog and digital signal processing.  The Company's products are used in communications, computer, industrial, instrumentation, military/aerospace, automotive, and high-performance consumer electronics applications.  Analog Devices sells its products worldwide.

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Analog Devices (ADI US)

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

Mint Finance

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

No constituent changes but big capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Broadcom will have...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

​The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

​China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

Mint Finance

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

No constituent changes but big capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Broadcom will have...

Brian Freitas

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...