Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.</li>
<li>With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.</li>
<li>As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned, which we outline below.
With that said, the bottom line is that the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208 support and the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $135 support.
As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead, but we would turn bearish on breakdowns.


Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Luxshare Precision Industry / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We consider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luxshare-precision-industry-co-ltd-3f59eaa1-da7f-4d9b-add0-c8efccfee0d5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50296:1" rel="noopener">Luxshare Precision Industry (2475 HK)</a>'s H-share IPO not expensive, especially given its gigantic market capitalisation which will attract interests. </li>
<li>Its 3-year EPS CAGR is forecast at 19.2%, and its position as a local and global leader in precision intelligent manufacturing solutions justify a premium to peers. </li>
<li>The IPO price is set at 17.6% discount to the A-share. It can at least trade on 10% discount, translating into a price of HK$69.12, or 9.2% upside.</li>
</ul>


We consider Luxshare Precision Industry (2475 HK)'s H-share IPO not expensive, especially given its gigantic market capitalisation which will attract interests. 
Its 3-year EPS CAGR is forecast at 19.2%, and its position as a local and global leader in precision intelligent manufacturing solutions justify a premium to peers. 
The IPO price is set at 17.6% discount to the A-share. It can at least trade on 10% discount, translating into a price of HK$69.12, or 9.2% upside.


Luxshare Precision (2475 HK) IPO: We See Some Potential Upside

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-micro-corp-5c356907-201f-4bd8-8190-24de284e1329" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50247:1" rel="noopener">SG Micro (3661 HK)</a> priced its H Share at HK$85.20, raising HK$4,601 million (US$587 million) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sg-micro-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:242274" rel="noopener">SG Micro H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sg-micro-h-share-listing-3661-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:243268" rel="noopener">SG Micro H Share Listing (3661 HK): Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The grey market price is up 30%, partly due to A Shares rising 9% since the prospectus was released. The 46.5% AH discount is attractive. </li>
</ul>



SG Micro (3661 HK) priced its H Share at HK$85.20, raising HK$4,601 million (US$587 million) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in SG Micro H Share Listing: The Investment Case and SG Micro H Share Listing (3661 HK): Valuation Insights. 
The grey market price is up 30%, partly due to A Shares rising 9% since the prospectus was released. The 46.5% AH discount is attractive. 


SG Micro H Share Listing (3661 HK): Trading Debut

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>SG Micro launched Hongkong IPO to raise up to HK$4.6B. They are a leading analog IC company in China who design, develop and sell high-performance analog ICs and sensors.  </li>
<li>SG Micro intends to use the IPO proceeds to expand overseas sales network, investment &amp; acquisition opportunities, enhance R&amp;D capabilities and working capital.</li>
<li>Prima facie, in terms of the valuation that the company is seeking, the company seems overvalued. Investors can avoid the issue for now.</li>
</ul>


SG Micro launched Hongkong IPO to raise up to HK$4.6B. They are a leading analog IC company in China who design, develop and sell high-performance analog ICs and sensors.  
SG Micro intends to use the IPO proceeds to expand overseas sales network, investment &amp; acquisition opportunities, enhance R&amp;D capabilities and working capital.
Prima facie, in terms of the valuation that the company is seeking, the company seems overvalued. Investors can avoid the issue for now.


SG Micro IPO: Issue Valuation Sought Does Not Seem Analogous With Inherent Prospects

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-micro-corp-5c356907-201f-4bd8-8190-24de284e1329" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50247:1" rel="noopener">SG Micro (3661 HK)</a>, a leading analog IC company, has a solid track record of earnings. Its IPO targets to raise net proceeds of HK$4.5bn, which is reasonably sizeable.</li>
<li>The market is expecting 3-year EPS CAGR of 33.1%, putting the IPO price at 59.3x FY26 PER. The 107% earnings growth in 1Q26 affirms its outlook. </li>
<li>We value it on 2.1x PEG, same as global peers, translating into 70x PER, or 18% upside. Our estimated fair value of HK$100.50 means a H-A discount of 34.1%.  </li>
</ul>



SG Micro (3661 HK), a leading analog IC company, has a solid track record of earnings. Its IPO targets to raise net proceeds of HK$4.5bn, which is reasonably sizeable.
The market is expecting 3-year EPS CAGR of 33.1%, putting the IPO price at 59.3x FY26 PER. The 107% earnings growth in 1Q26 affirms its outlook. 
We value it on 2.1x PEG, same as global peers, translating into 70x PER, or 18% upside. Our estimated fair value of HK$100.50 means a H-A discount of 34.1%.  


SG Micro Corp (3661 HK) IPO: A High-Growth Play

United States

Analog Devices, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits used in analog and digital signal processing.  The Company's products are used in communications, computer, industrial, instrumentation, military/aerospace, automotive, and high-performance consumer electronics applications.  Analog Devices sells its products worldwide.

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Analog Devices (ADI US)

Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. However, the bottom line is that Russell 2000 (IWM) is...

Vermilion Research

Luxshare Precision (2475 HK) IPO: We See Some Potential Upside

Luxshare Precision Industry's H-share IPO is attractively priced with strong growth potential and a discount to A-share, offering upside potential.

Osbert Tang, CFA

SG Micro IPO: Issue Valuation Sought Does Not Seem Analogous With Inherent Prospects

SG Micro launches Hong Kong IPO to raise up to HK$4.6B for expansion, acquisitions, R&D. In terms of the valuation that company is seeking, it...

Tina Banerjee

SG Micro Corp (3661 HK) IPO: A High-Growth Play

SG Micro is a leading analog IC company with a solid earnings record, aiming to raise HK$4.5bn in its IPO. With a 33.1% EPS CAGR, the IPO is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Supports Holding Despite Concerning Developments; Semis & Home Improvement Retailers Attractive

Market dynamics continue to deteriorate and there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. However, the bottom line is that Russell 2000 (IWM) is...

Vermilion Research

Luxshare Precision (2475 HK) IPO: We See Some Potential Upside

​Luxshare Precision Industry's H-share IPO is attractively priced with strong growth potential and a discount to A-share, offering upside potential.

Osbert Tang, CFA

SG Micro H Share Listing (3661 HK): Trading Debut

SG Micro priced its H Share at HK$85.20, raising HK$4,601 million (US$587 million) in gross proceeds. The current AH discount of 46.5% is attractive.

Arun George

SG Micro IPO: Issue Valuation Sought Does Not Seem Analogous With Inherent Prospects

​SG Micro launches Hong Kong IPO to raise up to HK$4.6B for expansion, acquisitions, R&D. In terms of the valuation that company is seeking, it...

Tina Banerjee

SG Micro Corp (3661 HK) IPO: A High-Growth Play

​SG Micro is a leading analog IC company with a solid earnings record, aiming to raise HK$4.5bn in its IPO. With a 33.1% EPS CAGR, the IPO is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Luxshare Precision Industry's H-share IPO is attractively priced with strong growth potential and a discount to A-share, offering upside potential.

SG Micro launches Hong Kong IPO to raise up to HK$4.6B for expansion, acquisitions, R&D. In terms of the valuation that company is seeking, it...

SG Micro is a leading analog IC company with a solid earnings record, aiming to raise HK$4.5bn in its IPO. With a 33.1% EPS CAGR, the IPO is...