European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Anglo and Teck agreed an at-market merger of equals, creating a copper-tilted major. Pro forma ownership about 62%/38%; HQ Vancouver, primary LSE listing. Anglo plans a sizeable pre-close special dividend.</li>
<li>Scenario-Based synergy valuation indicates multi-billion upside, with recurring cost savings earlier and long-dated Chile adjacency optionality subject to partner alignment and permitting. This frames interloper incentives, break-price support, and re-rating.</li>
<li>Approvals hinge on Canada’s net-benefit test and multi-jurisdictional antitrust; shareholder hurdles look manageable. I favor a hedged long-TECK/short-AAL pair capturing a double-digit spread, with dividend liabilities on the AAL short.</li>
</ul>


Anglo and Teck agreed an at-market merger of equals, creating a copper-tilted major. Pro forma ownership about 62%/38%; HQ Vancouver, primary LSE listing. Anglo plans a sizeable pre-close special dividend.
Scenario-Based synergy valuation indicates multi-billion upside, with recurring cost savings earlier and long-dated Chile adjacency optionality subject to partner alignment and permitting. This frames interloper incentives, break-price support, and re-rating.
Approvals hinge on Canada’s net-benefit test and multi-jurisdictional antitrust; shareholder hurdles look manageable. I favor a hedged long-TECK/short-AAL pair capturing a double-digit spread, with dividend liabilities on the AAL short.


Copper Convergence — Anglo–Teck’s Path to Scale and Value

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JSE indexes will be rebalanced in the closing auction tomorrow. </li>
<li>MCG will fall out of the TOPI and DTOP and HAR will enter. The ALSI gets reviewed semi-annually in March and September.</li>
<li>ACL and LBR will fall out of the ALSI, ALSI SWIX and the capped variants.</li>
</ul>


JSE indexes will be rebalanced in the closing auction tomorrow. 
MCG will fall out of the TOPI and DTOP and HAR will enter. The ALSI gets reviewed semi-annually in March and September.
ACL and LBR will fall out of the ALSI, ALSI SWIX and the capped variants.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The 2024 results for Anglo American highlight a year marked by strategic shifts and operational execution, albeit with mixed outcomes.</li><li>Safety remains a priority, yet the company faced three fatalities, underscoring ongoing safety challenges.</li><li>Leadership changes have impacted the structure, with board addition Anne Wade contributing her expertise to strategic committees.</li></ul>

The 2024 results for Anglo American highlight a year marked by strategic shifts and operational execution, albeit with mixed outcomes.Safety remains a priority, yet the company faced three fatalities, underscoring ongoing safety challenges.Leadership changes have impacted the structure, with board addition Anne Wade contributing her expertise to strategic committees.

Anglo American: Initiation of Coverage- Copper Production Expansion & Optimization Driving Our Optimism!

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> fails in May 2024; 17 months later, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> merge.</li>
<li>The Anglo Teck portfolio will have more than 1.2 million tonnes of annual copper production, anchored by six world-class copper assets with more than 70% copper exposure.</li>
<li>The company will divest its non-core assets, including DeBeers, steelmaking coal, nickel, and other similar assets, and pivot to consolidating/growing its copper operations.</li>
</ul>



Anglo American (AAL LN) - BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) fails in May 2024; 17 months later, Anglo American (AAL LN) - Teck Resources (TECK US) merge.
The Anglo Teck portfolio will have more than 1.2 million tonnes of annual copper production, anchored by six world-class copper assets with more than 70% copper exposure.
The company will divest its non-core assets, including DeBeers, steelmaking coal, nickel, and other similar assets, and pivot to consolidating/growing its copper operations.


Consolidation of The Copper Kingdom - The Anglo Teck Merger

<ul>
<li>Copper retreated by more than 5% due to China's weak print on TSF. The plenum's lack of concrete stimulus measures also did not help matters. </li>
<li>Check out our initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-primer-what-we-like-about-copper-and-what-to-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:141017" rel="noopener">Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play</a>, where we provide our long-term bullish outlook on copper. </li>
<li>Also, see our initiation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/southern-copper-in-a-league-of-its-own" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:139839" rel="noopener">Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own</a>. The company reported a stellar Q2 FY24, beating the street estimates by 20%.</li>
</ul>


Copper retreated by more than 5% due to China's weak print on TSF. The plenum's lack of concrete stimulus measures also did not help matters. 
Check out our initiation, Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play, where we provide our long-term bullish outlook on copper. 
Also, see our initiation, Southern Copper: In a League of Its Own. The company reported a stellar Q2 FY24, beating the street estimates by 20%.


Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

South Africa

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese, and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds. Anglo American has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Australia.

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Anglo American (AGL SJ)

Copper Convergence — Anglo–Teck’s Path to Scale and Value

Anglo–Teck nil-premium merger creates a copper-heavy major. Double-digit spread solid synergies, approvals manageable. Trade: long TECK/short AAL...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

JSE September 2023 Index Rebalance

Top 40 & Top 40 SWIX: HAR to enter, MCG to fall out. NPN/PRX Cross-holding unwind: yesterday's trading session. JSE indexes will be rebalanced...

DMA

Anglo American: Initiation of Coverage- Copper Production Expansion & Optimization Driving Our Optimism!

The 2024 results for Anglo American highlight a year marked by strategic shifts and operational execution, albeit with mixed outcomes. Safety...

Baptista Research

Consolidation of The Copper Kingdom - The Anglo Teck Merger

The copper complex is consolidating, with major players pivoting by divesting their non-copper assets. The Anglo-Teck merger is a clear indication...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore.

Sameer Taneja

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52-week Range

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Copper Convergence — Anglo–Teck’s Path to Scale and Value

Anglo–Teck nil-premium merger creates a copper-heavy major. Double-digit spread solid synergies, approvals manageable. Trade: long TECK/short AAL...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

JSE September 2023 Index Rebalance

Top 40 & Top 40 SWIX: HAR to enter, MCG to fall out. NPN/PRX Cross-holding unwind: yesterday's trading session. JSE indexes will be rebalanced...

DMA

Anglo American: Initiation of Coverage- Copper Production Expansion & Optimization Driving Our Optimism!

The 2024 results for Anglo American highlight a year marked by strategic shifts and operational execution, albeit with mixed outcomes. Safety...

Baptista Research

Consolidation of The Copper Kingdom - The Anglo Teck Merger

The copper complex is consolidating, with major players pivoting by divesting their non-copper assets. The Anglo-Teck merger is a clear indication...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

This brief insight summarizes Copper's performance and equities on our screens. We highlight our research and trades to explore.

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak