Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Merdeka Gold Resources / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Largest IPO 2025: EMAS IJ raised ~USD 281m, 4.6× oversubscribed, spun off from MDKA to fund Sulawesi’s Pani Gold Project.</li>
<li>Asset Scale: Pani holds 1.9 Moz reserves, 7 Moz resources; production to ramp from 145 koz (2026) to ~500 koz (2032).</li>
<li>Valuation &amp; Risks: IPO EV ~USD 3.2 bn; ~8–9× EV/EBITDA during 2026–29 heap leach, falling to ~2–3× at 2032 steady-state; execution, funding risks remain.</li>
</ul>


Largest IPO 2025: EMAS IJ raised ~USD 281m, 4.6× oversubscribed, spun off from MDKA to fund Sulawesi’s Pani Gold Project.
Asset Scale: Pani holds 1.9 Moz reserves, 7 Moz resources; production to ramp from 145 koz (2026) to ~500 koz (2032).
Valuation &amp; Risks: IPO EV ~USD 3.2 bn; ~8–9× EV/EBITDA during 2026–29 heap leach, falling to ~2–3× at 2032 steady-state; execution, funding risks remain.


Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a>. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201176" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-phip-updates-support-the-investment-thesis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201970" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn.
I previously discussed the IPO in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case and Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction on Friday.</li>
<li>GLN will enter the Top 40, with APN falling out (projections sent out on 26 Aug, confirmed by the JSE on Wednesday 3 Sep).</li>
<li>There is quite a bit on the go on the economic calendar this week – FOMC on Wednesday evening, BOE and SARB on Thursday. </li>
</ul>


JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction on Friday.
GLN will enter the Top 40, with APN falling out (projections sent out on 26 Aug, confirmed by the JSE on Wednesday 3 Sep).
There is quite a bit on the go on the economic calendar this week – FOMC on Wednesday evening, BOE and SARB on Thursday. 


JSE September ’25 Rebalance: GLN to Enter Top 40, APN to Be Deleted

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>H1 2025 delivered record profitability, with realized gold prices up 41% YoY to ~US$3,020/oz and production surging 77% to 6.75t, lifting margins to ~US$1,440/oz.</li>
<li>Growth is anchored in the Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups, with optionality from the newly identified SND discovery (maiden reserve expected 2026, potential production from 2027–28).</li>
<li>On 2026E, Chifeng trades at ~8× P/E and ~4.6× EV/EBITDA with &gt;10% FCF yields, offering inexpensive exposure to earnings growth; risks remain around execution at overseas mines, cost pressures etc.</li>
</ul>


H1 2025 delivered record profitability, with realized gold prices up 41% YoY to ~US$3,020/oz and production surging 77% to 6.75t, lifting margins to ~US$1,440/oz.
Growth is anchored in the Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups, with optionality from the newly identified SND discovery (maiden reserve expected 2026, potential production from 2027–28).
On 2026E, Chifeng trades at ~8× P/E and ~4.6× EV/EBITDA with &gt;10% FCF yields, offering inexpensive exposure to earnings growth; risks remain around execution at overseas mines, cost pressures etc.


Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) – Earnings Step-Change, Valuation Undemanding

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2579355D HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company's past performance, and done a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
We have looked at the company's past performance, and done a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.


Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Acquisition of Raygorodok Mine for a Song

South Africa

AngloGold Ashanti Limited is a holding company for a group of companies which explore for and mine gold internationally. The Group has operations in the Vaal River and West Witwatersrand areas of South Africa as well as Namibia, Mali, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, Tanzania and the United States.

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AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr (AU US)

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

EMAS IJ's successful IPO raised $281m to fund Sulawesi's Pani Gold Project, with production expected to ramp up to 500 koz by 2032. Valuation at...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price...

Arun George

JSE September ’25 Rebalance: GLN to Enter Top 40, APN to Be Deleted

JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction on Friday. GLN will enter the Top 40, with APN falling out...

DMA

Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) – Earnings Step-Change, Valuation Undemanding

Record profitability in H1 2025 driven by surging gold prices and production, with growth anchored in Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups and potential from...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Acquisition of Raygorodok Mine for a Song

Zijin Gold is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.

Nicholas Tan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

​EMAS IJ's successful IPO raised $281m to fund Sulawesi's Pani Gold Project, with production expected to ramp up to 500 koz by 2032. Valuation at...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold IPO (2259 HK): Valuation Insights

Zijin Gold has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$3.2bn. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price...

Arun George

JSE September ’25 Rebalance: GLN to Enter Top 40, APN to Be Deleted

JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction on Friday. GLN will enter the Top 40, with APN falling out...

DMA

Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988 CH) – Earnings Step-Change, Valuation Undemanding

​Record profitability in H1 2025 driven by surging gold prices and production, with growth anchored in Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups and potential from...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Acquisition of Raygorodok Mine for a Song

Zijin Gold is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will provide a PHIP update.

Nicholas Tan

EMAS IJ's successful IPO raised $281m to fund Sulawesi's Pani Gold Project, with production expected to ramp up to 500 koz by 2032. Valuation at...

Record profitability in H1 2025 driven by surging gold prices and production, with growth anchored in Sepon and Wassa ramp-ups and potential from...