Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>High Growth: ~80% production increase (36t to 65t, 2024–27E) via Buriticá, Aurora, Porgera, Central Asia.</li>
<li>Valuation: Filing suggests US$12–16bn (US$3–4bn raise, 6–7.5× EV/EBITDA); market eyes US$30–40bn.</li>
<li>Key Dynamics: SOE-backed expansion; risks in EM execution and AISC (~US$1,350/oz by 2027E).</li>
</ul>


High Growth: ~80% production increase (36t to 65t, 2024–27E) via Buriticá, Aurora, Porgera, Central Asia.
Valuation: Filing suggests US$12–16bn (US$3–4bn raise, 6–7.5× EV/EBITDA); market eyes US$30–40bn.
Key Dynamics: SOE-backed expansion; risks in EM execution and AISC (~US$1,350/oz by 2027E).


Zijin Gold Int'l IPO Preview: High-Growth Gold Mining Leader (PHIP, 14 Sep 2025)

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) </a>is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China. </li>
<li>We have looked at the company's past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a global leading gold mining company formed by combining all of the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China. 
We have looked at the company's past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO proceeds.</li>
<li>Zijin Gold had sales of US$3.0 billion (up 32.2% YoY) in 2024. Net margin increased from 14.2% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2024. </li>
<li>There has been a sharp increase in the gap between gold AISC (all-in-sustaining cost) and gold price in the past year, leading to higher profit margins of gold producers globally. </li>
</ul>


Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO proceeds.
Zijin Gold had sales of US$3.0 billion (up 32.2% YoY) in 2024. Net margin increased from 14.2% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2024. 
There has been a sharp increase in the gap between gold AISC (all-in-sustaining cost) and gold price in the past year, leading to higher profit margins of gold producers globally. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Shandong Gold Mining   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a> aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt.</li>
<li>The H-shares are now trading at all-time highs and have been performing better than the A-shares this year.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt.
The H-shares are now trading at all-time highs and have been performing better than the A-shares this year.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Shandong Gold Mining Placement - H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares

South Africa

AngloGold Ashanti Limited is a holding company for a group of companies which explore for and mine gold internationally. The Group has operations in the Vaal River and West Witwatersrand areas of South Africa as well as Namibia, Mali, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, Tanzania and the United States.

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AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr (AU US)

Zijin Gold Int'l IPO Preview: High-Growth Gold Mining Leader (PHIP, 14 Sep 2025)

Article highlights significant production increase and valuation potential in gold mining sector, with emphasis on expansion risks and cost...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison

Zijin Gold is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. We have looked at the company's past performance in our previous note....

Nicholas Tan

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

Zijin Gold IPO Preview

Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Zijin Gold Int'l IPO Preview: High-Growth Gold Mining Leader (PHIP, 14 Sep 2025)

​Article highlights significant production increase and valuation potential in gold mining sector, with emphasis on expansion risks and cost...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison

Zijin Gold is looking to raise up to US$3.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. We have looked at the company's past performance in our previous note....

Nicholas Tan

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

Zijin Gold IPO Preview

Zijin Gold is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong this year. A successful IPO of Zijin Gold could fetch as high as US$3 billion in IPO...

Douglas Kim

Shandong Gold Mining Placement - H-Share Running Ahead of A-Shares

Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK) aims to raise around US$500m via a primary placement, in order to pay down debt. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Article highlights significant production increase and valuation potential in gold mining sector, with emphasis on expansion risks and cost...